August 2009 Monthly Forecast

• Somalia and Related Horn of Africa Issues

  Somalia is not expected to be on the Council work programme as such in August. However, because of interrelated issues, including the work by the Somalia Sanctions Committee on a list of individuals and entities for targeted sanctions (including possibly persons from Eritrea), the pressure for Council action against Eritrea from Djibouti, and the dynamics created by recent developments in Somalia (including French personnel being held hostage), it seems inevitable that Council members will be continuing to discuss Somalia in various ways during August. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in July 2009. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending for the Council include: In a presidential statement on Darfur in July 2008 (S/PRST/2008/27) the Council welcomed the UN investigation into the 8 July attack against UNAMID peacekeepers. The results are still awaited. The Security Council’s request,... Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for August 2009. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  The Security Council is expected to hold an open debate on 6 August on the implementation of resolution 1820 on sexual violence in armed conflict. (Please see the brief on this issue in the July 2009 Monthly Forecast.) No Council action is expected at the time of the debate, but ongoing discussion between Council members on an outcome document is expected. Read more

• Peacekeeping

  The Council is to hold an open debate on peacekeeping, most likely on 5 August. This responds to the French-British initiative launched in January this year and seems likely to result in a presidential statement and an ongoing programme of work for the next six months. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  The Council is expecting a briefing in August by the chairman of the 1718 Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). No action in the Council itself is scheduled. However, many Council members have noted how effective and balanced the format involving the whole fifteen members was in discussion of the 6 July press statement from the president. Read more

• Iraq

  The mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) expires on 7 August. The Council is expected to renew the mandate for 12 months. The discussion is not expected to be controversial. Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In August the Council is expected to receive the annual reports of the International Criminal Tribunals of the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR). These reports, which are published as both Security Council and General Assembly documents, are usually discussed in the General Assembly in September. Read more

• Lebanon

  The mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. The Council is expected to extend it for another year. It seems possible that the recent explosions in southern Lebanon will complicate the negotiation of the text. Read more

• Liberia

  In August the Council will receive a report from the Secretary-General on the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). It is expected to include detailed recommendations on international assistance needed for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for 2011.  Read more

• Overview

  The United Kingdom will hold the presidency of the Council in August. At print time, the first part of the month appeared particularly busy. There will be two open debates in the first week of August: on peacekeepingand on the... Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for August 2008. Read more