August 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 July 2009
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during June included:

UN Office in West Africa: On 7 July the head of UNOWA, Said Djinnit, briefed the Council on developments in the subregion. The Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crimes, Antonio Maria Costa, also spoke and said that the volume of drug trafficking appeared to be diminishing significantly in the subregion, but the situation remained volatile (S/PV.6157). On 10 July the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/20) which emphasised the importance of adopting a “comprehensive strategy of conflict resolution and crisis prevention while addressing the cross-border issues and regional challenges”.

Somalia: On 9 July the Council held an open debate on the situation in Somalia (S/PV.6158) with briefings by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe and Under-Secretary-General for Field Support Susana Malcorra. Malcorra reported that there had been significant progress in implementing the support package for AMISOM with 95 percent of the initial funding of $72 million provided by the General Assembly having been committed. Following the debate the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/19) reiterating its support for the Djibouti Peace Process and the Transitional Federal Government and expressed concern at foreign support to the insurgents. On 20 July the Secretary-General submitted his regular report on Somalia to the Council (S/2009/373). He called for strong international support. In particular he called on donors to honour commitments made at the April donor conference and support AMISOM both bilaterally and through the UN trust fund. On 29 July the Council heard a briefing by Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah. It was followed by closed consultations in which Council members were also briefed by the chairman of the Somalia Sanctions Committee, Mexican Ambassador Claude Heller.

DRC: On 10 July the Council was briefed in an open meeting (S/PV.6159) by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General in the DRC and head of MONUC, Alan Doss, who presented the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2009/335). The Council subsequently issued a press statement (SC/9703) on the issue of impunity within the national security forces.

Myanmar: The Secretary-General briefed the Council on 13 July on his July visit to Myanmar (S/PV.6161). He said that the refusal of the senior leadership to allow him to see Aung San Suu Kyi was a deep disappointment.

Northern Uganda and LRA Affected Areas: On 15 July the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas Joaquim Chissano gave a final briefing to the Council in closed consultations. (His mandate was suspended on 30 June.) He recommended that the Council should support regional military operations to compel the LRA to sign the agreement. At the same time mediation efforts should continue. In speaking to the press after the meeting the Council president, the ambassador of Uganda, said that Council members highly commended Chissano’s work as Special Envoy. He also said Council members called on the LRA to sign the final peace agreement.

Afghanistan: On 15 July the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/21) on the upcoming Afghan presidential and provincial council elections and stressed that it was important that the elections be free, fair, transparent, credible, secure and inclusive.

Sierra Leone: On 16 July the Council was briefed during an open meeting by the President of the Special Court for Sierra Leone, Judge Renate Winter. She indicated that the trial of former Liberian President Charles Taylor was critical to preserving peace and stability in West Africa, but it needed $30 million for the successful completion of its mandate (S/PV.6163).

Terrorism: On 17 July the Security Council condemned the terrorist attacks in Jakarta in a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/22).

Djibouti/Eritrea: On 21 July Council members met in closed consultations to discuss the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea. Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe confirmed that there had been no change in the situation since his last briefing in April. Eritrea continued to refuse any dialogue. Council members reportedly encouraged the Secretary-General to continue his good offices efforts.

Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: On 22 July, after a debate on post-conflict peacebuilding with more than forty participants (S/PV.6165), the Council adopted a presidential statement emphasising the vital role of the UN in post-conflict peacebuilding (S/PRST/2009/23). It supported the Secretary-General’s recommendation to “broaden and deepen” the pool of international civilian experts and requested the Secretary-General to report within a year to the Council and the General Assembly on progress achieved in fulfilling his recommendations to improve UN peacebuilding efforts.

Nepal: On 23 July the Council adopted resolution 1879 extending UNMIN till 23 January 2010 in line with a request from the government of Nepal (S/2009/360). The Council requested the Secretary-General to report by 30 October 2009 on progress in creating conditions conducive to the completion of UNMIN’s mandate by January.

Côte d’Ivoire: On 23 July the Special Representative of the Secretary General in Côte d’Ivoire briefed the Council (S/PV.6168). On 30 July the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of UNOCI until 31 January 2010.

Middle East: On 27 July Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco briefed the Council at an open debate and noted the Secretary-General’s participation at the 26 June meeting of the Quartet in Trieste, Italy (S/PV.6171 and SC/9717).

Chad-Central African Republic: On 28 July the Council was briefed during a public meeting by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINURCAT, Victor da Silva Angelo, on the latest report of the Secretary-General (S/2009/359) which highlighted the benchmarks towards fulfillment of the mission’s mandate.

Sudan: On 30 July the Council is expected to renew UNAMID. On 17 July, Alain Le Roy, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, briefed the Security Council in closed consultations on the work of UNMIS and the Secretary-General’s 14 July report on the mission. On 24 July, the Council met to discuss both the UNMIS and UNAMID reports (respectively, S/2009/357 and S/2009/352). On 17 July the Council welcomed the commitment of both parties to respect the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on Abyei in a statement made to the press by its president.

Children and Armed Conflict: At press time the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict was negotiating a possible presidential statement or resolution which would expand the criteria for including parties to armed conflict in the annexes to the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict.
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