February 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 January 2009
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in February 2009. Read more

  • Aide Memoire

    Important matters pending for the Council include: The 2005 World Summit requested that the Security Council consider reforms for the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed. In a presidential statement on Darfur in July 2008 (S/PRST/2008/27) the... Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable dates for February 2009. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in January 2009. Read more

  • Security Council Statistics for 2008

    In 2008 the total number of Council decisions (resolutions and presidential statements) increased by seven from 2007, i.e. from 106 to 113. The increase in overall Council activity was much more significant. Read more

  • Sierra Leone

    The Council is expected to consider the first report of the new UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL) in early February. (Its mandate expires on 30 September.) Council members will be looking closely to see whether the UNIPSIL model is adding value. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In February the tense security situation in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to be on the Council’s programme of work. Read more

  • Iraq

    The Council is expecting a briefing on Iraq from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura. (The next report on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) is expected by 18 February.) The UNAMI mandate expires on 7 August. Read more

  • Sudan

    Consultations in the Council on UNAMID and UNMIS are expected in February. The Under Secretary-General for the Department of Field Support, Susana Malcorra, and the Under Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Alain Le Roy, are likely to brief the Council. Read more

  • Georgia

    Council action on Georgia is expected in February. The mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) expires on 15 February. Several options are being considered, from another technical rollover to a new mission mandate. Read more

  • Myanmar

    The Council is expected to ask the Secretary-General's Special Adviser on Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, for a briefing in the latter half of February after his visit to Myanmar (at press time his visit was expected from 31 January to 3 February). Gambari is also expected to visit other countries in the region and brief the Secretary-General (who will be in Delhi in early February) before coming back to New York in mid-February.  Read more

  • Zimbabwe

    In February, Council members are expected to be monitoring the political situation and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe closely. It is unclear whether or when this might evolve into more concrete discussions. Read more

  • Timor-Leste

    The Council is expected to hold an open debate on Timor-Leste in February and renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) before it expires on 26 February. Major changes to the mandate seem unlikely. Read more

  • Somalia

    The Council expects to receive an initial report from the Secretary-General by 30 January on measures to strengthen the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as requested in resolution 1863 of 16 January. In February the Council is likely to receive a more comprehensive report and briefing. Read more

  • Lebanon

    Lebanon will be on Council members’ minds in February because the mandate of the UN International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC), considering the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, is due to expire. However, the Council is expected to let it lapse. Read more

  • Overview

    In February Japan will have the presidency of the Council. It is unclear whether Japan as president will initiate a special thematic debate. It is perhaps unlikely, but the option is still open. A session on the Middle East is... Read more

Download Complete Forecast: PDF