June 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2024
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Status Update since our May Forecast  

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question  

On 6 May, Security Council members held closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”. The meeting was requested by France to discuss its proposed draft resolution on the war between Israel and Hamas. 

On 7 May, at Algeria’s request, Council members held closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” to discuss the discovery of mass graves in the vicinity of two hospitals in Gaza. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk and the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, Francesca Albanese, briefed. 

On 9 May, Council members held closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Russia requested the meeting to discuss a possible role for the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) in monitoring a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. UNTSO Head of Mission and Chief of Staff Major General Patrick Gauchat briefed. 

On 10 May, the members of the Security Council issued a press statement on the discovery of mass graves in Gaza (SC/15692). The statement calls for investigators to be provided “unimpeded access to all locations of mass graves in Gaza to conduct immediate, independent, thorough, comprehensive, transparent and impartial investigations to establish the circumstances behind the graves”. Following opposition from the UK and the US, the adjective “international” with reference to the investigation was apparently removed from the draft press statement during the negotiations. 

On 16 May, the US convened a Security Council Arria-formula meeting titled “Condemning Hostage-Taking in Israel on October 7 as a Psychological Tool of Terrorism”. Professor of Law at the Bar-Ilan University and former Vice Chair of the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW Committee) Ruth Halperin-Kaddari briefed. Council members also received briefings from Shoshan Haran, Ayelet Samerano, and Gili Roman, who shared their experience of being taken hostage during the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks or having family members held captive in Gaza.  

On 20 May, the Security Council held an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9631). Algeria and Slovenia requested the briefing to discuss the situation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost governorate, following the start of Israel’s offensive in the area on 7 May. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland and Director of OCHA’s Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu briefed.  

On 28 May, Council members held emergency consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”. Algeria requested the meeting after Israeli airstrikes on 26 May hit tents housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah. During the consultations, Algeria announced that it will pursue a draft resolution on the situation in Rafah. 

On 29 May, the Security Council held an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9638). Wennesland briefed. This was the regular monthly meeting on the file.  

Sudan/South Sudan  

On 7 May, the Council held a briefing (S/PV.9622) on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), circulated to Council members on 30 April (S/2024/354). The briefers were Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, and Hanna Serwaa Tetteh, the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa.  

Lebanon  

On 8 May, Council members received their semi-annual briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559 (S/2024/319). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed. 

Ukraine  

On 14 May, the Security Council held a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine at the request of Ecuador and France (S/PV.9625). OCHA’s Director for Financing and Partnerships, Lisa Doughten, and Director of Operations for the Conflict Observatory team based at the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, Caitlin Howarth, briefed the Council. 

On 20 May, the Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9629). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu and Executive Editor of Black Agenda Report Margaret Kimberley briefed.  

Bosnia and Herzegovina  

The Security Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on 15 May (S/PV.9626). High Representative for BiH Christian Schmidt briefed on the most recent report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which covers the period from 16 October 2023 to 15 April (S/2024/367). Denis Bećirović, the Bosniak member of the rotating tripartite inter-ethnic Presidency of BiH and the incumbent Chairman of the Presidency, participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force  

On 15 May, Security Council members held closed consultations on the Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S). Alexandre Zouev, the Assistant Secretary-General for Rule of Law and Security Institutions in the Department of Peace Operations (DPO), briefed. He presented the Secretary-General’s recommendation, recently reiterated in a 1 May letter (S/2024/357), to end the reporting cycle on the FC-G5S, given the dissolution of the Group of Five for the Sahel and its joint force. At the time of writing, Council members, who agree on ending the reporting obligation but have different views about whether and how to continue to receive updates about the situation in the Sahel, were expected to resume discussions on a letter to respond to the Secretary-General’s recommendation. 

Annual Report to the General Assembly  

On 16 May, the Security Council adopted its annual report to the General Assembly, covering the period from 1 January to 31 December 2023. The UK, which drafted the introduction to the report, presented it to Council members. The rest of the report was prepared by the UN Secretariat and approved by the current members and immediate past members of the Council. For the first time, the annual report featured a dedicated chapter on the special reports on the use of the veto.  

Iraq  

On 16 May, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) (S/PV.9628). Outgoing Special Representative and Head of UNAMI Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest reports on UNAMI (S/2024/369) and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property (S/2024/368). Iraq and Kuwait participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

On 31 May, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2732, renewing UNAMI’s mandate for a final 19-month period until 31 December 2025. 

Arria-formula Meeting on “Unlocking the Potential of Science for Peace and Security”  

On 17 May, Switzerland convened a Security Council Arria-formula meeting on “Unlocking the Potential of Science for Peace and Security”. Thomas Gürber, State Secretary of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of the Swiss Confederation, delivered opening remarks and chaired the meeting. The briefers included: Henrietta Fore, former Executive Director of UNICEF (2018-2022) and a board member of the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator, an independent foundation that leverages science and technology to generate “inclusive and global solutions for a sustainable future”; Dr. Sascha Langenbach, a data scientist at the Center for Security Studies at the ETH Zürich university; and Lieutenant General Mohan Subramanian, the Force Commander of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). 

Non-Proliferation  

On 20 May, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution on the prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS) and outer space security, which was prepared by Russia (S/PV.9630). The draft resolution (S/2024/383) failed to be adopted because it did not garner the requisite support. It received seven votes in favour (Algeria, China, Ecuador, Guyana, Mozambique, Russia, and Sierra Leone), seven votes against (France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea, Slovenia, the UK, and the US), and one abstention (Switzerland). The draft text was co-sponsored by Belarus, China, the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK), Nicaragua, and Syria. 

Protection of Civilians  

On 21 and 22 May, the Security Council held its annual open debate on the protection of civilians (PoC) in armed conflict (S/PV.9362 and Resumption I). Mozambique, the Council president for May, convened the meeting as one of the signature events of its presidency, with a focus on the 25th anniversary of resolution 1265 of 17 September 1999, which first established PoC as a matter of international peace and security and introduced it as an item on the Council’s agenda. Member states received briefings from Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide Alice Wairimu Nderitu; Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya; ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger; and Executive Director of the non-governmental organisation Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) Hichem Khadhraoui. 

On 24 May, the Council adopted resolution 2730 on the protection of humanitarian personnel and UN and associated personnel and their premises and assets. The resolution—which was prepared by Switzerland and co-sponsored by 97 member states—​was adopted by a vote of 14 in favour and one abstention (Russia). In its explanation of vote, Russia acknowledged the importance of the issue but objected to the resolution’s reference to international courts, its proposed parameters for ensuring humanitarian access, and its gender-related language. 

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 22 May, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), briefed Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report on the Committee’s work. 

On 31 May, the Council convened for an open briefing on the DPRK. France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the UK, and the US requested the meeting to discuss the DPRK’s failed satellite launch on 27 May. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. The DPRK participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

The Role of African States in Global Security and Development Challenges  

On 23 May, Mozambique convened an open debate on strengthening the role of African states in addressing global security and development challenges as a signature event of its May Council presidency (S/PV.9633). Secretary-General António Guterres, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye, and Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) Ambassador Sérgio França Danese (Brazil) briefed. The Security Council adopted a presidential statement proposed by Mozambique which, among other things, expresses support for progress in enhancing the role and representation of African States in global governance and decision-making processes (S/PRST/2024/2). 

West Africa and the Sahel  

On 24 May, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement on West Africa and the Sahel (S/PRST/2024/3). It was the Council’s first presidential statement on the region since August 2021, as negotiations stalled several times for more than two years over language on the link between climate change and security. The presidential statement welcomed the appointment of Special Representative Leonardo Santos Simão, who became the head of the UN Office of West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) in May 2023; highlighted the importance of addressing the underlying conditions conducive to terrorism and for states to ensure that counter-terrorism measures comply with all their obligations under international law; expressed serious concern at the unconstitutional changes of governments and attempted coups d’état in the region; and underscored the importance of the timely, nationally owned transition processes and the restoration of constitutional order in concerned countries. 

“Maintenance of International Peace and Security: the role of women and young people” 

On 28 May, the Security Council held a debate titled “Maintenance of international peace and security: the role of women and young people” (S/PV.9637). The Council received briefings from Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, Assistant Secretary-General for Youth Affairs Felipe Paullier, and AU Youth Ambassador for Peace for West Africa Simone Mbode Diouf. Belgium, Brazil, Denmark and Finland participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

Arria-formula Meeting on Myanmar  

On 29 May, the UK convened an Arria-formula meeting on the effects of the ongoing conflict in Myanmar on children and youth. Director of UNICEF’s Office of Emergency Programmes Lucia Elmi briefed. Council members, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, and countries bordering Myanmar were invited to participate. The Permanent Representative of Myanmar to the UN, Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, also took part in the meeting. 

UN High Commissioner for Refugees  

On 30 May, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi briefed the Council under the agenda item “Briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees” (S/PV.9641). He provided an overview of the current situation of displaced people and refugees globally, as well as some of the main challenges facing UNHCR. 

South Sudan 

On 30 May, the Security Council adopted resolution 2731, renewing the South Sudan sanctions regime until 31 May 2025 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee until 1 July 2025. The resolution was adopted with nine votes in favour and six abstentions (Algeria, China, Guyana, Mozambique, Russia, and Sierra Leone).  

 

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