April 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 March 2024
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Status Update since our March Forecast

International Criminal Tribunals

On 4 March, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2024/1) requesting the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT) to submit a report on the progress of its work since the last review of the IRMCT, which was conducted in June 2022.

Afghanistan

On 6 March, the Security Council held an open briefing on the situation in Afghanistan (S/PV.9565). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2024/196). The Council was also briefed by Fatima Gailani, Chair of the Afghanistan Future Thought Forum, which comprises employees of the former Afghan government as well as representatives of civil society and academia. On 15 March, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2727, extending UNAMA’s mandate for another year, until 17 March 2025.

Sudan

On 7 March, the Security Council convened for an open briefing (S/PV.9567), followed by closed consultations, on the Secretary-General’s report on “UN efforts to support Sudan on its path towards peace and stability” (S/2024/204), submitted in accordance with resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which terminated the mandate of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). The report covered developments between 1 December 2023 and 20 February 2024. Secretary-General António Guterres briefed in the open chamber, while Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra briefed during the closed consultations.

On 8 March, the Security Council adopted resolution 2724, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and for all warring parties to seek a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia).

On the same day (8 March), the Security Council adopted resolution 2725, renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee for another year, until 12 March 2025. The resolution expresses the Council’s intention to review the panel’s mandate and take appropriate action regarding a further extension by 12 February 2025. The resolution contains new language encouraging all parties and all member states, as well as international, regional, and subregional organisations, to ensure continued cooperation with the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, and the safety of its members. This year’s resolution also takes note of the panel’s reporting on the complex financing schemes established by armed groups active in Darfur and requests the panel to further investigate all relevant funding sources—including local, national, and international—of these armed groups. It was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia).

On 20 March, the Security Council held a briefing on food insecurity in Sudan under the “Protection of civilians in armed conflict” agenda item (S/PV.9582). (See the Protection of Civilians status update for more information.)

Ukraine

 On 8 March, Ukraine, supported by Ecuador, France, and the UK, requested a briefing (S/PV.9570) to discuss intensified Russian missile attacks earlier this month, including a lethal strike on 6 March in the city of Odesa during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari and Lisa Doughten, the Director of Financing and Partnerships of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), briefed.

On 14 March, Council members held a meeting under “any other business” at Russia’s request to discuss developments pertaining to the domestic investigations conducted by Denmark, Sweden, and Germany into the 26 September 2022 explosions that caused physical damage to the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed.

On 15 March, the Security Council convened for a briefing on the situation in Ukraine (S/PV.9578). The meeting—which was requested by Ukraine and supported by Slovenia—focused on the presidential elections that Russia was organising between 15 and 17 March in Crimea and in parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed.

On 22 March, the Security Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9585). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu and political analyst Matthew Hoh briefed the Council.

Working Methods

On 11 March, the Security Council convened for its annual open debate on its working methods (S/PV.9571 and Resumption I). Ambassador Kazuyuki Yamazaki (Japan), the Chair of the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions (IWG), and Executive Director of Security Council Report (SCR) Karin Landgren were the briefers. Yamazaki briefed on the work of the IWG so far in updating Note 507. Landgren covered the importance of working methods in the context of conflict prevention and suggested ways in which the Council could make greater use of some of its tools including engaging with UN regional offices and regional organisations. The elected members (E10) made a joint statement for the seventh time at the annual working methods open debate. It was delivered by Mozambique, the E10 coordinator for March. 44 member states spoke during the debate. Among the issues raised were Article 27 (3), the annual report of the Security Council, and the use of the veto.

Arria-formula Meeting on the Synergies between the CEDAW and WPS Agenda

On 12 March, Switzerland convened a Security Council Arria-formula meeting on leveraging the synergies between the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) framework. President of the Swiss Confederation Viola Amherd provided opening remarks. Council members were briefed by UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous and the Chair of the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW Committee), Ana Peláez Narváez. Civil society representative Moon Nay Li of the Women’s League of Burma also briefed.

EU-UN Cooperation

On 12 March, the Security Council held its annual meeting on EU-UN cooperation under the agenda item “Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations in maintaining international peace and security” (S/PV.9573).  At the meeting, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell briefed Council members on strengthening the EU-UN partnership.

Conflict Prevention

On 13 March, the Security Council held an open debate on “Promoting Conflict Prevention – Empowering All Actors Including Women and Youth” under the “Peacebuilding and sustaining peace” agenda item. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) Ambassador Sérgio França Danese (Brazil) briefed. The Council also heard briefings by Abiodun Williams, Professor of the Practice of International Politics at Tufts University and Sharon Bhagwan Rolls, Programme Manager at the Pacific Women Mediators Network. Sixty-seven member states issued a joint statement at the press stakeout committing to work together “to effectively incorporate proposals and recommendations made by various countries and regions into the Council’s activities to further promote conflict prevention.” Because of the number of speakers, the debate was continued on 19 March.

Protection of Civilians

On 20 March, the Security Council held a briefing on food insecurity in Sudan under the “Protection of civilians in armed conflict” agenda item (S/PV.9582). Guyana and Switzerland, the Council’s co-focal points on conflict and hunger, joined by Sierra Leone and Slovenia, requested the meeting after OCHA sent a white note to Council members on food insecurity in Sudan, dated 15 March. The white note estimated that nearly 18 million people across Sudan are currently facing acute food insecurity, described by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)—used by relief agencies to measure hunger levels—as crisis level conditions or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). OCHA Director of Operations and Advocacy Edem Wosornu, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Deputy Director-General Maurizio Martina, and World Food Programme (WFP) Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau briefed. Sudan participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Non-Proliferation

On 26 March, Council members convened for a briefing on the activities of the 1540 Committee (S/PV.9589). Ambassador José Javier De La Gasca (Ecuador) briefed the Council in his capacity as chair of the 1540 Committee. At the briefing, he discussed the latest developments since the Committee’s previous report to the Council. He emphasised that the Committee approved the appointment of five candidates to its Group of Experts in February 2024, allowing the group to be better resourced to assist the Committee in its work.

Lebanon

On 19 March, Council members received a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed.

Arria-formula Meeting on Unilateral Coercive Measures and Counter-Terrorism

On 25 March, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting on the impact of unilateral coercive measures (UCMs) on global counter-terrorism efforts. The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov; UN Special Rapporteur on the negative impact of unilateral coercive measures on the enjoyment of human rights Alena Douhan; and Alfred-Maurice de Zayas, a lawyer and former UN Independent Expert on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order. In addition to Council members, participants included Venezuela on behalf of the Group of Friends in Defense of the UN Charter, as well as Cuba, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Syria.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 27 March, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including the work of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) (S/PV.9590). Special Representative of the Secretary-General in the DRC and Head of MONUSCO Bintou Keita and a civil society representative briefed. Burundi, the DRC and Rwanda participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

UNDOF (Golan)

On 27 March, Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report (S/2024/242), dated 18 March, on the activities of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and the implementation of resolution 338 of 22 October 1973. The report covered the activities of UNDOF from 21 November 2023 to 20 February 2024. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed.

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

On 28 March, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee. The draft text failed to be adopted owing to a veto cast by Russia. All other members—except China, which abstained—voted in favour of the text.

 

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