March 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 February 2024
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Status Update since our February Forecast

Myanmar

On 5 February, the Security Council convened for a private meeting on Myanmar (S/PV.9541). Newly appointed Special Envoy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Myanmar Alounkeo Kittikhoun and Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. The UK, the penholder on Myanmar, requested the meeting.

Iraq

On 5 February, the Security Council held an open briefing on the 2 February US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria under the “threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9542). The meeting was requested by Russia. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed.

On 6 February, the Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9543), followed by closed consultations, on Iraq. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert briefed on recent developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s reports on UNAMI (S/2024/96) and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property (S/2024/95). Iraq and Kuwait also participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Ukraine

On 6 February, the Security Council convened for an open briefing on Ukraine under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9544). Russia requested the meeting to discuss an incident that occurred on 3 February in which Ukrainian forces allegedly shelled the city of Lysychansk in the Russian-controlled region of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed, and Ukraine participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

On 12 February, the Council held an open briefing on Ukraine under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9546). Russia requested the meeting to mark the ninth anniversary of the “Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, also known as the Minsk II agreement, adopted on 12 February 2015. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and political activist and journalist Steve Sweeney briefed. Germany and Ukraine participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

On 23 February, the Council convened for a briefing on the situation in Ukraine, held at ministerial level (S/PV.9557). Ukraine, supported by Slovenia, requested the meeting to mark the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. Secretary-General António Guterres briefed the Council. Ukraine and eight other European member states participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. At the outset of the meeting, Russia raised a point of order objecting to the number of non-members of the Council from the EU participating in the meeting.

Kosovo

On 8 February, the Council held an open briefing on Kosovo (S/PV.9545) under the agenda items “Security Council resolutions 1160 (1998), 1199 (1998), 1203 (1998), 1239 (1999) and 1244 (1999)” and “Letter dated 5 February 2024 from the Permanent Representative of Serbia to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2024/134)”. Citing article 35 of the UN Charter, Serbia requested the meeting, with Russia’s support, to discuss rising tensions in Kosovo following Pristina’s decision to make the euro the only valid currency for conducting cash payment transactions. Special Representative and Head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh briefed. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, and Prime Minister Albin Kurti of Kosovo participated under rule 39.

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

On 12 February, Security Council members convened for closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Algeria requested the consultations to discuss the situation in Rafah following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 9 February announcement that he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli security establishment to prepare a “combined plan” to evacuate civilians and to destroy Hamas’ forces in that area.

On 20 February, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution (S/PV.9552) on the war between Israel and Hamas authored by Algeria (S/2024/173). The draft text, which demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, failed to be adopted owing to a veto by the US. All other members—except the UK, which abstained—voted in favour of the text. The vote marked the eighth time that the Security Council has voted on a draft resolution on the war. Only two of the eight draft resolutions on the crisis voted on by the Council thus far were adopted: resolution 2712 of 15 November 2023 and resolution 2720 of 22 December 2023. Neither of these resolutions called for a ceasefire.

On 22 February, the Security Council convened for an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9556). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland and Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) Secretary General Christopher Lockyear briefed in the open chamber. Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security Gilles Michaud briefed during the closed consultations.

Following the meeting, Guyana, February’s Council president, read out press elements saying that the Council was briefed on the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the “extremely difficult and dangerous” working conditions for UN and humanitarian personnel operating in Gaza. Among other things, the statement said that Council members “stressed the importance of respecting deconfliction mechanisms for the safety and security of UN personnel and facilities, as well as access to appropriate security equipment”.

On 27 February, the Security Council held a briefing on food insecurity in Gaza under the “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict” agenda item (See the Conflict and Food Insecurity status update for more information).

On 29 February, Council members held closed consultations on Gaza at the request of Algeria after an incident earlier on the same day in which dozens were reportedly killed and injured during a transfer of aid supplies. 

Climate Change and Food Insecurity

On 13-14 February, the Security Council convened for a high-level open debate on “The impact of climate change and food insecurity on the maintenance of international peace and security”, the signature event of Guyana’s presidency (S/PV.9547 and S/PV.9547 Resumption 1). President Mohamed Irfaan Ali of Guyana chaired the meeting. UN Secretary-General António Guterres provided opening remarks. The briefers were: Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Simon Stiell; Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol; and Jimena Leiva Roesch, the Director of Global Initiatives and Head of Peace, Climate, and Sustainable Development at the International Peace Institute.

Libya

On 15 February, the Security Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9549), followed by closed consultations, on Libya. Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Abdoulaye Bathily briefed the Council on the latest political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. Additionally, Ambassador Yamazaki Kazuyuki (Japan), chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, presented the periodic report on the committee’s activities. Libya participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Counter-terrorism

On 8 February, Council members issued a press statement (SC/15583) condemning the 7 February terrorist attacks in Balochistan, Pakistan. The attacks were claimed by ISIL and killed at least 26 people and injured 45 more.

On 15 February, the Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9550) on the Secretary-General’s 18th biannual strategic level report (S/2024/117) on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) to international peace and security. Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman, and Secretary General of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) Jürgen Stock briefed the Council.

Somalia

On 19 February, the Security Council held a briefing on the situation in Somalia (S/PV.9551). Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) Catriona Laing and Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson (SRCC) for Somalia and Head of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) Mohamed El-Amine Souef briefed. Laing highlighted recent developments, including Somalia’s admission to the East African Community (EAC), its attainment of debt relief after reaching the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative completion point, the Security Council’s decision to lift the arms embargo on the Somali government, and the AU’s endorsement of Somalia’s candidature for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for 2025-2026. Souef spoke about the transfer of security responsibilities to Somali security forces and post-ATMIS arrangements. Somalia participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Its permanent representative, Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman reiterated his country’s condemnation of Ethiopia for signing a 1 January memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic in the northern region of Somalia.

Central African Republic

On 21 February, The Security Council held a briefing on the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) (S/PV.9554). Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the CAR and Head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) Valentine Rugwabiza briefed the Council and described the mission’s efforts to fulfill its mandate in protecting civilians and helping the CAR government in expanding state authority across the country. The CAR participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Colombia

Between 7 and 11 February, the Security Council conducted a visiting mission to Colombia, which was co-led by the UK (the penholder on the file), Guyana, and Switzerland. The visiting mission allowed Council members to assess the progress and challenges in the implementation of the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP). It also afforded them an opportunity to learn more about the “total peace” policy promoted by the administration of Colombian President Gustavo Petro Urrego, which entails the promotion of dialogue with armed groups operating in the country as well as the implementation of the 2016 agreement. The visiting mission’s co-leads briefed the Council about the visit on 22 February (S/PV.9555).

Conflict and Food Insecurity

On 27 February, the Security Council held a briefing on food insecurity in Gaza under the “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict” agenda item (S/PV.9560). Guyana and Switzerland, the Council’s focal points on conflict and hunger, joined by Algeria and Slovenia, requested the meeting after OCHA sent Council members a white note, dated 22 February, on food security risks in the Gaza Strip. The white note estimated that at least 576,000 people in Gaza are “one step away from famine” and that Gaza’s entire population of 2.2 million is experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the armed conflict. OCHA Head in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Deputy Director-General Maurizio Martina, and World Food Programme (WFP) Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau briefed.

 

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