August 2023 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2023
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update since our July Forecast

Children and Armed Conflict

On 5 July, the Security Council held its annual open debate on children and armed conflict (S/PV.9366). Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba presented the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict (S/2023/363). UNICEF Deputy Executive Director for programmes Omar Abdi and a child civil society representative from Colombia also briefed.

The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict conducted a field visit to Nigeria between 10 and 13 July. The chair of the working group, Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta), briefed Council members on the visit on 28 July during “any other business”.


On 6 July, the Security Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9368), followed by closed consultations, on Haiti. Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH, dated 3 July (S/2023/492). The chair of the 2653 Haiti Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Michel Xavier Biang (Gabon), and civil society representative Marie-Yolène Gilles also briefed. Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

On 14 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2692, which renewed BINUH’s mandate until 15 July 2024.


On 6 July, the Security Council held its biannual open briefing (S/PV.9367) on the implementation of resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme (JCPOA). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 2231, dated 23 June (S/2023/473). The Security Council’s facilitator for the implementation of resolution 2231, Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta), reported on the Council’s work regarding resolution 2231. The head of the EU delegation to the UN, Ambassador Olof Skoog, briefed on the work of the JCPOA’s Joint Commission. The commission comprises the current parties to the JCPOA—China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the UK—and the EU serves as its coordinator.

Germany, Iran, and Ukraine participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. At the beginning of the meeting, Russia requested a procedural vote on Ukraine’s request to participate, which it claimed was “far from being routine” since Ukraine was neither a Council member nor a party to the JCPOA. The US argued for Ukraine’s participation, alleging that “[b]oth Iran and Russia have violated their obligations under resolution 2231 by participating in the transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) without obtaining advance approval from the Security Council” with “direct implications for Ukraine”. The procedural vote passed with 12 votes in favour, two against (China and Russia), and one abstention (Mozambique).

The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

On 7 July, Security Council members convened for closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. The meeting was requested by Brazil, France and the United Arab Emirates following the 3-5 July large-scale military operation by the Israel Defense Forces in the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank. Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process and UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territory Lynn Hastings briefed.

On 27 July, the Security Council held its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9387). Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed.


On 12 July, the Council members held closed consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart briefed the Council, presenting the Secretary-General’s report on his good offices in Cyprus (S/2023/497) and on UNFICYP (S/2023/498). Council members released a press statement on the same day that expressed full support for UNFICYP and stressed the importance of full respect for its mandate and implementation of relevant Security Council resolutions.


On 12 July, the Security Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9374), followed by closed consultations, on Colombia. Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2023/477). The Council was also briefed by Diana María Salcedo López, the Spokesperson for the Special Women’s Instance for the follow-up of the implementation of the 2016 peace agreement in Colombia and Director of the Colombian section of the non-governmental organisation the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom.

On 20 July, Council members issued a press statement on Colombia (SC/15361). In it, they stressed the importance of ensuring the comprehensive implementation of the Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace signed in 2016 between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group FARC-EP. Among other issues, they expressed concern at continued conflict-related sexual and gender-based violence against women and girls and stressed the need to further implement the gender provisions of the 2016 agreement. Members also emphasised the need to increase the integrated presence of the state in conflict-affected areas and urged the government to take all necessary steps to ensure fair and safe political participation at the departmental and municipal elections that will take place in October.

Arria-formula Meeting on Migrants, Refugees, and Asylum Seekers

On 13 July, Russia convened a Security Council Arria-formula meeting titled “Migrants, Refugees and Asylum seekers crossing borders on Land and at Sea: New Wave of Crisis”. The briefers were: Elizabeth Tan, the Director of the International Protection Division of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR); Federico Soda, the Director of the Operations and Emergencies Department of the International Organization for Migration (IOM); Angelina Nyachola, a financial consultant; and Daniel Kovalik, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law and a labour and human rights lawyer.


On 13 July, the Council held its semi-annual briefing (S/PV.9375) on the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Darfur-related activities. ICC Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan briefed. Sudan participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Women, Peace and Security

On 14 July, the Security Council convened for its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), which this year was titled “Promoting Implementation of Security Council Resolutions on Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” (S/PV.9378). The meeting was chaired by Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, the UK Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and the UN, and Special Representative of the UK Prime Minister for Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict. The briefers were: the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten; a member of the advisory board of the Women’s League of Burma, Naw Hser Hser; and a “survivor champion” named only as Nadine.

Artificial Intelligence

On 18 July, the Security Council convened a high-level briefing on “Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities and Risks for International Peace and Security” (S/PV.9381). The meeting, which was one of the signature events of the July Council Presidency of the UK, was chaired by James Cleverly, the UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs. The briefers were: Secretary-General António Guterres; Co-founder of Anthropic Jack Clark; and Yi Zeng, Professor at the Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Council members presented contrasting perspectives on AI. Some highlighted its transformative potential in tackling global challenges, such as accelerating progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, while others emphasised the risks, including the potential to intensify conflicts through malicious cyber operations and the spread of mis- and dis-information. Several members stressed the crucial role of human decision-making in autonomous weapons systems and advocated for the establishment of an ethical framework for global AI governance.

Arria-formula Meeting on the Contribution of the ICC to the Maintenance of International Peace and Security

On 18 July, an Arria-formula meeting on “The 25th anniversary of the Rome Statute: the contribution of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to the maintenance of international peace and security” took place. The meeting was organised by Japan and Switzerland and co-sponsored by Security Council members Albania, Ecuador, France, Gabon, Ghana, Malta, and the UK and incoming Council members Guyana, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Sierra Leone, and Slovenia. The briefers were: Silvia Fernández de Gurmendi, President, Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute; Deborah Ruiz Verduzco, Executive Director, Trust Fund for Victims; Dapo Akande, Professor of Public International Law, University of Oxford; and Melinda Reed, Acting Convenor, Coalition for the ICC.

West Africa and the Sahel

On 25 July, the Council held a briefing on West Africa and the Sahel (S/PV.9384), followed by closed consultations, to consider the Secretary-General’s latest report on the region, dated 30 June(S/2023/490).  Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Leonardo Santos Simão briefed, making his first address to the Council since starting his position in May. The President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, Omar Alieu Touray, also briefed, elaborating on ECOWAS’ efforts to integrate the various initiatives aimed at addressing security and political challenges in the region. The impact on the region of the pending withdrawal of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was a key theme of the discussion. During July, Council members also resumed negotiations on a draft presidential statement on West Africa and the Sahel, which members have been unable to agree on for over a year and a half.

Central African Republic

On 27 July, the Security Council adopted resolution 2693 extending the sanctions measures on the Central African Republic (CAR) until 31 July 2024 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee until 31 August 2024 with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). The Council also lifted the arms embargo imposed on the CAR government, while maintaining all other sanctions measures, including the obligation for bilateral and multilateral partners to notify the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee, except for deliveries to the CAR government.


On 28 July, the Security Council received the annual briefing of Heads of Military Components of UN peacekeeping missions (S/PV.9389). The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for UN Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and the heads of military components of three UN peacekeeping operations: Lieutenant General Mohan Subramanian, the Force Commander of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS); Lieutenant General Otávio Rodrigues de Miranda Filho, the Force Commander of the UN Organization Stabilization Operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO); and Major General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz, the Force Commander of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). This year, the briefing was focused on the protection of civilians and the role of the military components in the prevention and response to threats of physical violence.




Sign up for SCR emails

Subscribe to receive SCR publications