December 2022 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2022
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Status Update since our November Forecast  

UN High Commissioner for Refugees  

On 2 November, the Council received a briefing from Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. (S/PV.9178). He said that Ukraine has become UNHCR’s main focus and that the war has “driven the fastest and largest displacement witnessed in a decade”. He emphasised the need for political solutions, the importance of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and the need for Security Council members to overcome divisions and disagreements. However, UNHCR is also responding to 103 million displaced people in 37 situations around the world and has a severe funding gap which is forcing them to cut aid for refugees. He also addressed the connection between climate change and displacement. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina  

On 2 November, the Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) (S/PV.9179) and unanimously adopted resolution 2658, renewing the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) until 2 November 2023. The debate was marked by sharp divisions regarding the legitimacy of Christian Schmidt’s appointment as the High Representative for BiH. Some members expressed regret that a lack of consensus had prevented Schmidt from briefing the Council.  

UN Peacekeeping  

On 3 November, the Council held a ministerial-level open debate on the theme “Integrating Effective Resilience-Building in Peace Operations for Sustainable Peace”. (S/PV.9181). This was one of the signature events of Ghana’s presidency. Ghanaian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey chaired the meeting. The briefers were Secretary-General António Guterres, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs and Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye, Chair of The Elders Mary Robinson, and Security Council Report Executive Director Karin Landgren.  

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 4 November, the Council convened for an open briefing on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). (S/PV.9183). Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. Albania, France, Ireland, Norway, the UK, and the US requested the meeting after the DPRK conducted missile tests on 2 and 3 November. Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

On 21 November, the Council convened for another open briefing on the DPRK. (S/PV.9197). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed. Albania, France, Ireland, Norway, the UK, and the US requested the meeting after the DPRK tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on 18 November. Japan and the ROK participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. During the meeting, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield (United States) announced that the US planned to pursue a presidential statement on the DPRK. 

On 28 November, Chair of the 1718 Committee Ambassador Mona Juul (Norway) briefed Council members on the 90-day report regarding the committee’s work in closed consultations.  

UN Policing  

On 1 November, the Council held its annual briefing with the heads of police components of UN peace operations with a particular focus on how to strengthen the contribution of UN Police (UNPOL) to realising the Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+) initiative, a set of priorities being implemented in 2021-2023 to accelerate peacekeeping reform. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) police commissioner, Christine Fossen; the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) police commissioner, Mody Berethe; and Emma Birikorang, deputy director at the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) briefed the Council. The annual meeting took place during the 17th UN Police Week, which was held virtually from 14 to 18 November. 

Central African Republic  

On 14 November, the Security Council adopted resolution 2659 renewing the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2023, with 12 votes in favour and three abstentions (China, Gabon and Russia). (S/PV.9190). In their explanations of vote, the three members said that the text did not take into account some of their proposals, nor did it adequately reflect the views and concerns of the host country.   

Sudan/South Sudan  

On 14 November, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2660, renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) until 15 November 2023. (S/PV.9191). The resolution maintained the mission’s troop and police ceilings and did not make any changes to its mandate.   


On 17 November, the Council adopted resolution 2662, renewing for one year the 751 Somalia sanctions regime, including reauthorising maritime interdiction to enforce the embargo on illicit arms imports, the charcoal exports ban, and the improvised explosive device (IED) components ban; the partial lifting of the arms embargo on Somali security forces; and the humanitarian exemptions to the regime. The Council also renewed the mandate of the Somalia Panel of Experts until 15 December 2023. (S/PV.9196). The resolution was adopted with 11 votes in favour and four abstentions (China, Gabon, Ghana and Russia). In their explanations of vote, Gabon and Ghana supported Somalia’s request for the lifting of the arms embargo. China said that “Somalia is not in a position to ease sanctions”, noting the challenges in terms of weapons and ammunitions management. It further said that “the relevant contents of resolution 2662 (2022) do not reflect the reality of the country concerned” and expressed disappointment over “its double standards on the issue of exemptions to the arms embargo”. Russia expressed opposition to some of the provisions in the resolution, including the reference to the dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea. It also expressed concern that the resolution kept Al-Shabaab apart from the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaida sanctions regime despite its known affiliations with Al-Qaida.     

Group of Five for the Sahel  

On 16 November, the Council held a briefing (S/PV.9194) on the Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee briefed, presenting the Secretary-General’s biannual reporton the FC-G5S, issued on 9 November (S/2022/838). The Council also heard briefings by G5 Sahel Executive Secretary Eric Tiaré, as well as Zakaria Ousman Ramadan, President of the Chadian Center for Strategic Studies and Prospective Research. 

Gulf of Guinea Piracy 

On 22 November, the Council held a briefing on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea (S/PV.9198). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee presented the Secretary-General’s 1 November reporton Gulf of Guinea piracy. There were also briefings by Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime Ghada Fathi Waly; Executive Secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Commission Florentina Adenike Ukonga; and Maritime Planning Officer of the AU Commission, Commander Nura Abdullahi Yakubu. 


On 22 November, Council members discussed a series of Iranian attacks in north-eastern Iraq under “any other business”. The meeting was requested by France, the UK and the US. It appears that the US circulated a draft press statement concerning the attacks. Consensus could not be achieved, however, and the press statement was not issued. 


On 23 November, the chair of the 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico), provided the annual briefing (S/PV.9200) to the Council on the committee’s work. 

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question  

On 28 November, the Security Council held a briefing followed by consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9203). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland briefed.  


On 28 November, Council members received a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (2006) (S/2022/858). Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed. 

Climate, Peace and Security  

On 29 November, an open Arria-formula meeting was convened on “Climate, Peace and Security: Opportunities for the UN Peace and Security Architecture”. Kenya and Norway (the co-chairs of the Informal Expert Group on Climate and Security) co-convened the meeting with Council members Albania, France, Gabon, Ghana, Ireland, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), together with Germany and Nauru (the co-chairs of the Group of Friends on Climate and Security) and incoming Council members Malta, Mozambique and Switzerland. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča was the keynote speaker. Three panel discussants also delivered statements: Mely Caballero-Anthony, Professor of International Relations and President’s Chair of International Relations and Security Studies at the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (virtual participation); Hafsa Maalim, Associate Senior Researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); and Michael Keating, Executive Director of the European Institute of Peace (EIP) (virtual participation). 


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