February 2022 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 January 2022
Download Complete Forecast: PDF


In February, the Russian Federation will hold the presidency of the Security Council.

Russia is expected to organise two signature events. The first event is a debate on sanctions with a particular focus on preventing their humanitarian and unintended consequences.

The second is a debate on the relationship between the UN and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Aside from these two signature events, Russia intends to convene a briefing based on its 13 April 2014 letter (S/2014/264) to discuss the implementation of the Minsk Agreement in relation to the situation in Ukraine. UnderSecretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Special Representative of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-In-Office in Ukraine and in the Trilateral Contact Group Mikko Kinnunen, and Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission Yaşar Halit Çevik are expected to brief.

The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts based on the Secretary-General’s report presented to the Council every six months on this issue. Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism Vladimir Voronkov and Acting Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) Weixiong Chen are the anticipated briefers.

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the 1540 Committee—which addresses the concern that non-state actors might use weapons of mass destruction for terrorist purposes—and its Group of Experts.

Middle East issues on the programme include:

  • Syria, monthly meeting(s) on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks;
  • Yemen, renewal of financial and travel ban sanctions and the monthly meeting on developments;
  • “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”, the monthly meeting on developments;
  • Iraq, meeting on the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI); and
  • Iraq/Kuwait, meeting on the completion of the work of the UN Compensation Commission (UNCC).

African issues on the programme of work in February are:

  • Somalia, meeting on the situation in Somalia and the activities of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and briefing by the chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee (Ireland);
  • Central African Republic, meeting on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA); and
  • Sudan, renewal of the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee.

The DPRK is the one Asian issue expected to be on the programme, as the DPRK Sanctions Committee Chair (Norway) is expected to brief Council members in February.

In terms of issues in the Americas, there will be a briefing and consultations on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

A number of additional issues could be raised in February depending on developments, including Ethiopia, Myanmar, Sudan, and the situation in West Africa and the Sahel.


Sign up for SCR emails

Subscribe to receive SCR publications