October 2017 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2017
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France has the presidency in October. A visiting mission to the Sahel focusing on the operationalisation of the joint force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel) is planned. There will be a briefing on the visiting mission. Later in the month, the Council expects to hold a ministerial-level meeting to discuss ways the international community can support the G5 Sahel, presided by the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, with Secretary-General António Guterres briefing. 

The Council is likely to renew the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya when reasonable grounds exist to suspect they are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking.

Other meetings on African issues during the month are expected to include:

  • Mali, on the activities of MINUSMA;
  • the DRC, on the activities of MONUSCO;
  • South Sudan, on the activities of UNMISS;
  • Burundi, on the situation in the country;
  • the CAR, on the activities of MINUSCA;
  • Western Sahara, on the activities of MINURSO; and
  • Sudan/South Sudan, on the implementation of resolution 2046, on the activities of UNISFA, and on the status of the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism. 

France is planning to hold a debate on UN peacekeeping operations focusing on strategic force generation. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and a representative from a major troop-contributing country are expected to brief.

The annual open debate on Women, Peace and Security is scheduled this month, with a resolution as a possible outcome.

An open debate to discuss the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict will also be held, and a presidential statement is a possible outcome.

A Secretariat official is expected to provide in October an oral briefing on the risk of famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and northeast Nigeria that includes recommendations for addressing impediments to effective response.

With regard to the Middle East, in addition to the monthly briefings on the political and humanitarian situations and chemical weapons in Syria, other issues to be considered include:

  • Yemen, a briefing originally expected in September;
  • Golan Heights, briefing from the Department of Peacekeeping Operations on UNDOF;
  • Israel/Palestine, the quarterly open debate; and
  • Lebanon, a briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559 (2004), which called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory.

A debate on Haiti and the activities of MINUSTAH, which will be replaced by MINUJUSTH in mid-October, is expected.

The annual briefing to the Council of the ICJ President will be held in a private meeting.

An Arria-formula meeting is expected on Myanmar with participation from Kofi Annan, who headed the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State.

In addition, the Council will continue to follow closely developments in the DPRK and in Myanmar, among other issues. More meetings may be scheduled during the month.