May 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 April 2009
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Overview

The Russian Federation will hold the presidency of the Council in May.

Using the occasion of the monthly public meeting on the Middle East, Russia will be organising a high-level event, most likely to be chaired by the country’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Foreign ministers of several European and Latin American Council member states are expected to participate, and dignitaries from other regions may also attend. At press time, that meeting was expected to be held on 11 May.

The Council is set to undertake a visit to Africa in the second half of May. The trip, currently scheduled for 14-21 May, will likely include Ethiopia, the DRC, Rwanda, Liberia and Uganda. In Addis Ababa, the headquarters of the AU, members will conduct the Council’s annual consultations with its AU counterpart, the AU Peace and Security Council. A briefing to the Council after the mission’s return is likely late in the month.

There will be a debate on terrorism-related issues, on the occasion of the bi-annual briefing by the chairs of the Council’s three committees dealing with these matters (the 1267 and 1540 Committees and the Counter-Terrorism Committee).

There is likely to be a briefing followed by consultations on Somalia early in the month, and later in May the Council may hold a debate and possibly adopt a resolution.

The Council is also expected to receive a briefing from the new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Valentin Inzko.

A briefing by the Secretariat on its efforts to resolve the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea is also possible.

Consultations are expected on:

  • Lebanon (to discuss the latest Secretary-General’s report on implementation of resolution 1559);
  • Georgia to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on recommendations for future activities of UNOMIG, requested in resolution 1866; and
  • Nepal to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on recent developments in Nepal and progress made by UNMIN towards a phased gradual drawdown as called for in resolution 1864 (for more details please see our April Forecast).

The DRC Sanctions Committee is expected to consider the interim report of its Group of Experts. Although at press time no meetings on the DRC were scheduled, developments may prompt the Council to hold consultations on this country as well.

At press time no meetings were scheduled on Sudan, but the country will certainly be on Council members’ minds and consultations are a possibility.

Full forecast