August 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 July 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs.  Interesting developments in the Council in July on other issues included:

For the Record: The Status Update for June in our July Forecast indicated that a proposal for the Council to indicate support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had been blocked by objections from various Council members.  It was incorrect to infer that such a proposal had been formally tabled or that the countries concerned had blocked it.

Small Arms: On 29 June a presidential statement (S/PRST/2007/24) requested the Secretary-General to submit to the Council on a biennial basis, beginning in 2008, a report on small arms to facilitate further Council consideration of the matter.

Terrorism: On 9 July in a presidential statement (S/PRST/2007/26), the Council condemned the terrorist attack in Yemen on 2 July which killed eight Spanish tourists and two Yemeni nationals.

Guinea-Bissau: On 10 July the Council was briefed by Shola Omoregie, the Representative of the Secretary-General, on the latest report (S/2007/401).  In a press statement (SC/9075) the Council welcomed the formation of a new government, but expressed concern over the tense social climate, an alarming increase in crime and the deteriorating socio-economic and financial situation.

North Korea: On 10 July Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, Chairman of the 1718 Committee, briefed the Council and advised that the Committee had adopted procedural guidelines on 20 June.  In related developments North Korea closed down its Yongbyon reactor in mid-July and invited the IAEA to monitor the shutdown process. 

Council Working Methods: On 10 July the Chair of the Council’s Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions, Ambassador Peter Burian of Slovakia, briefed the Council in consultations on the Group’s work on the implementation of the July 2006 Note by the President (S/2006/507) and other working methods-related developments.

Subsidiary Bodies: On 11 July the Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee’s Executive Directorate organised a technical assistance meeting for West African states in New York (SC/9073) with the aim of encouraging the implementation of resolution 1373 and the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy.  The 1540 Committee on non-proliferation initiated a meeting of states and international organisations in New York on 11-12 July on efforts and programmes to advance implementation of that resolution.

Western Sahara: On 11 July, after a briefing by Peter van Walsum, Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General, the Council welcomed the Secretary-General’s report (S/2007/385) in a press statement (SC/9076).  It supported the agreement that negotiations would continue in August after a first round of talks in Manhasset on 18-19 June. The Secretary-General’s report had been released, retracted and reissued “for technical reasons” and the second version did not contain all the previous recommendations.

Côte d’Ivoire: Resolution 1765 of 16 July renewed UNOCI’s mandate until 15 January 2008 to support elections and the full implementation of the Ouagadougou agreement. (Please see our 13 July Update Report on Côte d’Ivoire.) It also called for a review of UNOCI’s mandate and a Secretary-General’s report on progress achieved toward implementation of the agreement by 15 October and terminated the mandate of the High Representative for Elections, Gérard Stoudmann.  In another development the UN suspended a Moroccan peacekeeping contingent on allegations of sexual exploitation in the area of operations and initiated an internal investigation. 

Security Council Visiting Mission: On 16 July the Council held a debate wrapping up its mission to Addis Ababa, Khartoum, Accra, Abidjan and Kinshasa from 14-21 June (S/2007/421 and Corr.1). 

Afghanistan: The Council issued a presidential statement on 17 July welcoming recent international initiatives aimed at enhancing security, stability and development in Afghanistan (S/PRST/2007/27). The statement followed a briefing from Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Hédi Annabi (S/PV.5718 and SC/9080).

Kosovo: On 17 July a resolution (S/2007/437) was formally circulated on Kosovo. After consultations on 20 July the resolution was put on hold after Russia made it clear that it would use its veto.  The co-sponsors (France, the UK, the US, Belgium, Italy and Germany) released a statement indicating that the discussions would now take place within the Contact Group and reiterating their support for UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari’s Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo Status Settlement. (Please see our 19 July Update Report on Kosovo.)

Democratic Republic of the Congo: On 23 July the Council expressed deep concern at the deteriorating security situation in the east of the DRC and urged a political solution to the crisis (S/PRST/2007/28 and SC/9084).  It also encouraged MONUC to support the integrated brigades and the DDRRR process and Congolese authorities to develop plans to disarm armed groups in cooperation with the UN mission and, in an interesting development, provided specific policy guidance relevant to the use of force if necessary. Under Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guéhenno briefed the Council on 19 July.  The Group of Experts report (S/2007/423) stated that sanctions imposed on the DRC have rarely had the intended coercive effect but recommended suspension of flights by all airlines that are found to be violating regulations, enhancing controls of natural resources and strengthening border control. Adoption of a resolution on sanctions is expected on 30 July.

Children and Armed Conflict: On 23 July the Council considered the annual report from the Chairman of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict. On 19 July the Secretary-General’s reports on children and armed conflict in Chad (S/2007/400) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (S/2007/391), both urging greater protection for children in armed conflicts, were discussed by the Working Group who also adopted recommendations regarding Uganda and Somalia. (Please see our 16 July Update Report on Children and Armed Conflict.)

Ethiopia/Eritrea: On 24 July the Council discussed the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2007/440) which called for efforts to break the peace process stalemate.  The Council and troop-contributing countries heard a briefing by Hédi Annabi, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations (S/PV.5722).  A resolution renewing UNMEE’s mandate is expected on 30 July.

Middle East: On 25 July the Council held consultations on the Middle East after a briefing by Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process and Personal Representative of the Secretary-General, Michael Williams (S/PV.5723).

Nepal: On 26 July the Council held consultations on Nepal after a briefing by Ian Martin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative there. The latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2007/442) expressed optimism that the peace process would achieve its goal but also stated that the political scene had become more complex in the past few months. 

Georgia: On 26 July the Council held consultations on Georgia and was briefed by Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hédi Annabi on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2007/439) in which he urged stronger Georgian-Abkhaz cooperation on security, economic and humanitarian issues.

Full forecast

 

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