May 2021 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 April 2021 Download Forecast:
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  • Overview  

    In May, China will have the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

  • In Hindsight: Is There a Single Right Formula for the Arria Format? 

    The Arria-formula meeting format was conceived as the Security Council emerged from its stagnant Cold War period and members were open to wider information sources than government officials and the UN Secretariat on the many conflicts on its agenda.    Read more

  • Status Update since our April Forecast

    Mali  On 6 April, Security Council members held their quarterly briefing and consultations on Mali via video teleconference (VTC) to consider the Secretary-General’s latest report on Mali (S/2021/299) and the Secretary-General’s letter on a long-term roadmap setting out conditions necessary for an eventual exit strategy... Read more

  • UN Peacekeeping

    In May, China is organising an open debate on “Improving the Safety and Security of Peacekeepers” as a signature event of its presidency. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Under-Secretary-General for Operational Support Atul Khare are expected to brief. A Council product, most likely a presidential statement, is anticipated.    Read more

  • Yemen

    In May, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations. Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths and an OCHA representative will brief. General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), may brief during consultations. The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. Read more

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina 

    In May, the Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, is expected to brief on the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR).   Read more

  • Syria

    In May, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and the use of chemical weapons in Syria.  Read more

  • Libya

    In May, the Security Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Envoy to Libya and head of the UN Support Mission for Libya (UNSMIL), Ján Kubiš, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti, the Permanent Representative of India. Two Secretary-General’s reports are also due in May: on UNSMIL and on the implementation of resolution 2591. Additionally, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. Read more

  • Upholding Multilateralism and the UN-Centred International System

    In May, the Security Council will hold a high-level briefing via videoconference on “Maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding multilateralism and the United Nations-centred international system”. Wang Yi, China’s state councillor and minister for foreign affairs, is expected to chair the meeting. Volkan Bozkir, the president of the General Assembly, is expected to brief. Read more

  • Iraq

    In May, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), which expires on 31 May. Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, is also scheduled to brief the Council on recent developments in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports, on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in May. The sixth report of the Special Adviser and head of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) is also due in May. UNITAD’s mandate expires on 18 September 2021. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In May, the Council is expected to receive the semi-annual briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559, issued on 22 April. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Under‑Secretary‑General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief the Council. Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In May, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Council is also expected to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan/South Sudan border. Read more

  • Somalia

    In May, the Council is scheduled to be briefed on the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which is due 14 May. James Swan, Special Representative for Somalia and head of UNSOM, as well as Francisco Madeira, head of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are expected to brief. The mandate for UNSOM expires on 31 August. The mandate of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was reauthorised on 12 March for ten months until 31 December. Read more

  • Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

    In May, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S), formed in 2017 by Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (G5 Sahel) to combat terrorist and criminal groups in the region. Read more

  • Peace and Security in Africa

    In May, the Security Council will hold a high-level open debate on “Addressing the root causes of conflict while promoting post-pandemic recovery in Africa”. State Councillor and Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi will chair the open debate, which is one of China’s signature events during its May presidency of the Security Council. Secretary-General António Guterres, Administrator of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) Achim Steiner and a representative of the AU are the expected briefers. A presidential statement may be adopted in connection with the meeting. Read more

  • Sudan

    In May, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). The briefing will cover the Secretary-General’s report on UNITAMS, which includes information about the drawdown and withdrawal of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) as an annex, requested in resolutions 2524 and 2559. Read more

  • Protection of Civilians

    In May, the Council will hold its annual debate on protection of civilians (POC) in armed conflict via an open videoconference (VTC). Non-Council members are invited to participate and, because of the remote working methods adopted to slow the spread of COVID-19, can submit their statements to the Council. The Council president will then publish a compendium of all submissions on the Council’s website and include it in the UN electronic document system. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In May, the Council expects to vote on a draft resolution to renew the South Sudan sanctions regime—including targeted sanctions and the arms embargo—which expires on 31 May and the mandate of the South Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts, which expires on 1 July, as set out in resolution 2521. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In May, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mona Juul (Norway), is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the 90-day report about the committee’s work.   Read more

Posted 30 April 2021  • Download Complete Forecast: PDF