November 2023 Monthly Forecast

• Overview  

  In November, China holds the presidency of the Security Council.   Read more

• In Hindsight: UN Transitions in a Fractured Multilateral Environment 

  The discourse on transitions has recently intensified in response to the changing nature of conflict, underpinned by complex and multifaceted peace, security, and development challenges. A characteristic of current conflicts is their wider regional implications influenced by transnational actors and geopolitical rivalries involving major powers, contributing to their protracted nature.  As well, host countries and communities have grown frustrated with the perceived ineffectiveness of UN peace operations. At times, inflated public expectations and disappointments have been influenced by disinformation campaigns. Read more

• Status Update since our October Forecast

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Sudan

  In November, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), which Council members expect to receive by 9 November. The mandate of UNITAMS expires on 3 December. Read more

• Ukraine

  In November, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground.  Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In November, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The Council also expects to vote on the reauthorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) prior to its 2 November expiration.  Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In November, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), circulated to Council members on 16 October. The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of UNISFA and extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border, before their expiration on 15 November. Read more

• Yemen

  In November, the Council is expected to renew the Yemen financial and travel ban sanctions measures, which expire on 15 November, and the mandate of the Yemen Panel of Experts, which expires on 15 December. (The targeted arms embargo established by resolution 2216 in April 2015 on the Houthi rebel group is open-ended.) The Council will also hold their monthly meeting on Yemen, with UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of OCHA expected to brief. The chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee Ambassador Ferit Hoxha (Albania) may also brief. The head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, is expected to brief during consultations. Read more

• Libya

  In November, the Security Council will receive the biannual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor, Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, on the ICC’s Libya-related activities.   Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In November, the Security Council will hold its annual briefing with the heads of police components of UN peace operations. The anticipated briefers are: Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; Christophe Bizimungu, the Police Commissioner of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA); Christine Fossen, the Police Commissioner of the UN Mission in the South Sudan (UNMISS); Faisal Shahkar, the UN Police Adviser; and Karin Landgren, the Executive Director of Security Council Report. Read more

• Somalia

  In November, the Security Council is expected to renew the 751 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime set to expire on 15 November, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 751 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, which expires on 15 December. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In November, the Council will renew the mandate of MINUSCA which expires on 15 November. The CAR sanctions regime expires on 31 July 2024, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee expires on 31 August 2024. Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  In November, the Council is expected to hold its bi-annual briefing and consultations on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S) that Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (G5 Sahel) established in 2017 to fight terrorism and transnational organised crime. Read more

• Lebanon

  In November, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• Syria

  In November, the Security Council is expected to hold a meeting on the political process and the humanitarian situation in Syria. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In November, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), is scheduled to brief Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report on the Committee’s work. Read more