October 2023 Monthly Forecast

• Overview 

  In October, Brazil holds the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

• The UN Security Council and Regional Organisations: a Brief Exploration of Chapter VIII

  The Secretary-General’s New Agenda for Peace calls for strong partnerships between the UN and regional frameworks as part of “networked multilateralism”. Current geopolitical shifts make it imperative to reflect on how such partnerships should function—how the Security Council and regional organisations relate to each other in the maintenance of international peace and security. This is especially important in assessing how and when the Council must be involved with regional arrangements, including peace and enforcement operations. The Council itself has a mixed record in interpreting the provisions of the UN Charter, however. Read more

• Status Update since our September Forecast 

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  On 25 October, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security (WPS), which will be titled: “Women’s participation in international peace and security: from theory to practice”. UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous and a high-level representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross are the anticipated briefers. A civil society representative is also expected to brief. One of the signature events of Brazil’s presidency, the open debate will be chaired by Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mauro Vieira. Read more

• Ukraine

  In October, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Iraq

  In October, the Council will hold an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the situation in Iraq. Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert will brief the Council on recent developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s latest reports on UNAMI and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property.   Read more

• Colombia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, which covers the period from 27 June to 26 September. The chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Ambassador Ivan Šimonović (Croatia), and a civil society representative may also brief the Council. The Council is expected to renew the verification mission’s mandate ahead of its 31 October expiry. Read more

• UN-AU Cooperation

  In October, the Council is expected to hold the annual debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the AU. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In October, the Council will hold its quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan.   Read more

• Yemen

  In October, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen, followed by closed consultations. UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of OCHA will brief. The head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, is expected to brief during the consultations. The mandate of the Yemen sanctions measures, which comprise an assets freeze and travel ban, expires on 15 November. Read more

• Libya

  In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), which expires on 31 October. The Council is also expected to renew the authorisation of measures in resolution 2146 of 19 March 2014 related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya. Additionally, the Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya.  Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October. Ahead of the mandate renewal, Council members are also likely to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s annual report on the situation concerning Western Sahara, which member states anticipate receiving by 2 October.   Read more

• Great Lakes Region (DRC)

  The Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide the biannual briefing to the Council in October on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region. Read more

• Somalia

  In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, to discuss the situation in Somalia.   In addition, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which is set to expire on 31 October. The Chair of the 751 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Ishikane Kimihiro (Japan), is also expected to brief the Council.    The 751 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime expires on 15 November, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 751 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee expires on 15 December.     Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer. Read more

• Kosovo

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its second briefing of the year on the situation in Kosovo. Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report. Serbia is expected to participate under rule 37 and Kosovo under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Read more

• Prevention and Peaceful Resolution of Disputes

  In October, as one of the signature events of its presidency, Brazil is planning to convene a high-level open debate on “Peace through Dialogue: The Contribution of Regional, Sub-regional and Bilateral Arrangements to the Prevention and Peaceful Resolution of Disputes”. Read more

• Haiti

  In October, the Council is expected to continue negotiations on a draft resolution authorising member states to deploy a non-UN multinational force to Haiti. The Council is also expected to renew the Haiti sanctions regime, which was established for an initial period of one year pursuant to resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022. Additionally, the Council will hold its 90-day briefing on the situation in Haiti. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  In late October, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. Read more

• Syria

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold meetings on the political process and on the humanitarian situation in Syria.   Read more

• UN High Commissioner for Refugees

  In October, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, will brief the Council. The briefing will focus on the situation of refugees in several countries on the Council’s agenda. No outcome is expected. Read more