May 2023 Monthly Forecast

• Overview  

  In May, Switzerland holds the presidency of the Security Council.    Read more

• In Hindsight: Security Council Working Methods in Hard Times 

  In the space of about three years, the Council has grappled with two major crises—the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine—that could have threatened its ability to function. Yet, except for a brief moment at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Council continued to operate, adapting its working methods to new realities. These twin crises have both changed and challenged how the Council exercises its role, illuminating the role of working methods as the Council’s foundation for functioning in hard times.   Read more

• Status Update since our April Forecast 

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In May, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on the protection of civilians (PoC) in armed conflict. Switzerland, the Council president for the month, is convening the debate as a ministerial-level signature event with an expected focus on food insecurity and the protection of essential services in conflict situations. Secretary-General António Guterres, ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, and a female civil society representative are expected to brief. President of the Swiss Confederation Alain Berset will chair the meeting. Read more

• Sudan

  In May, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), which members are expected to receive by 15 May.   The mandate of UNITAMS expires on 3 June.  Read more

• Ukraine

  In May, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

  In May, the Security Council will hold an open debate on “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Futureproofing Trust for Sustaining Peace”, one of the signature events of Switzerland’s presidency. Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland Ignazio Cassis will chair the debate. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk; Cynthia Chigwenya, Youth Ambassador for Peace for Southern Africa; and ‘Funmi Olonisakin, Vice-President and Professor of Security, Leadership & Development, King’s College London, are expected to brief. Read more

• Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

  In May, North Macedonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bujar Osmani, in his capacity as the current Chairman-in-Office (CiO) of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), is expected to brief the Security Council on the organisation’s activities. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis is expected to chair the meeting. Read more

• Syria

  In May, the Security Council will hold its monthly meetings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on the use of chemical weapons in the country. Read more

• Lebanon

  In May, Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In May, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), due by 1 May, as requested in resolution 2660 of 14 November 2022. Consultations will follow the briefing.   The mandate of UNISFA and the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM) expire on 15 November.  Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In May, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The current authorisation for the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) expires on 2 November 2023. Read more

• Libya

  In May, the Security Council will receive the biannual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor, Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, on the ICC’s Libya-related activities.  Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  In May, the Council is expected to hold its bi-annual briefing and consultations on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S) that Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (G5 Sahel) established in 2017 to fight terrorism and transnational organised crime. Read more

• Yemen

  In May, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen with UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of OCHA. The head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, is expected to brief during consultations. Read more

• Iraq

  In May, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), which expires on 31 May. Special Representative and head of UNAMI Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert is also scheduled to brief the Council on recent developments in Iraq and the Secretary-General’s upcoming reports on UNAMI and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property. The briefing will be followed by closed consultations.  Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In May, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), is scheduled to brief Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report on the Committee’s work. Read more

• South Sudan

  In May, the Council expects to vote on a draft resolution to renew the South Sudan sanctions regime (including targeted sanctions and an arms embargo), which expires on 31 May, and extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, which expires on 1 July.    The mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) expires on 15 March 2024.  Read more