November 2022 Monthly Forecast

• Overview  

  In November, Ghana will hold the presidency of the Security Council.   Read more

• In Hindsight: The Role of the Security Council in Transitional Justice 

  Transitional justice is a complex and abiding issue in the aftermath of conflict or systemic oppression. International practice suggests—and experts generally agree—that understandings and definitions of transitional justice differ, depending on the context, and that there is no universal model. Acknowledging the breadth of transitional justice is helpful to seeing the variety of political and practical entry points to the issue.  Read more

• Status Update since our October Forecast  

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In November, Ghana is organising a high-level debate on “Counter-terrorism in Africa— an imperative for peace, security, and development”. The debate will be one of the signature events of Ghana’s presidency. AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, President of the European Council Charles Michel and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. No formal outcome is anticipated. The Council is also scheduled to receive its annual briefing from the chairs of its counter-terrorism committees: Ambassador Trine Heimerback (Norway), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee; Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj (India), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC); and Ambassador Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico), chair of the 1540 Committee. Read more

• UN Peacekeeping 

  In November, the Security Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on the theme “Integrating Effective Resilience-Building in Peace Operations for Sustainable Peace”. This is one of the signature events of Ghana’s presidency. Ghanaian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Regional Cooperation Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey is expected to chair the meeting. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs and Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye, Chair of The Elders Mary Robinson, and Security Council Report Executive Director Karin Landgren are the anticipated briefers.  Read more

• Ukraine

  In November, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• UN High Commissioner for Refugees 

  In November, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi will brief the Council. The briefing will focus on the situation of refugees in several country-specific situations on the Council’s agenda. No outcome is expected.  Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In November, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The Council also expects to vote on the reauthorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) prior to its 3 November expiration. Read more

• Libya

  In November, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor, Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, on the ICC’s Libya-related activities. Read more

• UN Policing

  In November, the Security Council will hold its annual briefing with the heads of police components of UN peace operations. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) police commissioner, Christine Fossen; the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) police commissioner, Mody Berethe; and Emma Birikorang, director at the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, are the anticipated briefers.  Read more

• Somalia

  In November, the Security Council is expected to renew the 751 Somalia sanctions regime set to expire on 15 November and the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, which expires on 15 December.   Read more

• Central African Republic

  In November, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which expires on 15 November. The 2127 CAR sanctions regime expires on 31 July 2023, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee expires on 31 August 2023.  Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In November, the Council expects to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Council is also expected to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border. Read more

• Yemen

  In November, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and a representative from OCHA are expected to brief. Major General Michael Beary, the head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), is expected to brief during the consultations. Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  In November, the Council is expected to hold its bi-annual briefing and consultations on the counter-terrorism Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S) that Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (G5 Sahel) established in 2017. Expected briefers are Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, and G5 Sahel Executive Secretary Eric Tiaré. Read more

• Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

  In November, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the 1540 Committee and its Group of Experts. Read more

• Gulf of Guinea Piracy

  In November, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea to consider the Secretary-General’s report on Gulf of Guinea piracy pursuant to resolution 2634 of 31 May. Representatives of the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, the Gulf of Guinea Commission, and civil society are expected to brief.   Read more

• Lebanon

  In November, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (2006), which called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a group Hezbollah and Israel. Briefings are expected from Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and a senior official from the Department of Peace Operations, possibly Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix.   Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In November, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mona Juul (Norway), is expected to brief Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report regarding the Committee’s work. Read more

• Syria

  In November, there will be the monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations in Syria, as well as on the use of chemical weapons in the country. Council members will also hold an informal interactive dialogue (IID) in accordance with resolution 2642 of 12 July, which reauthorised the Syrian cross-border humanitarian aid mechanism and encouraged an IID every two months to regularly review and follow up on the implementation of the resolution, including progress in early-recovery projects. Read more