October 2021 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2021
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  • Overview 

    In October, Kenya will hold the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The GERD and Water Security

    Council practice in recent years has shown a growing concern about water security issues. At one level, the Council’s discussion of the GERD could be viewed as an evolution of this practice. But while other Council discussions on water security have been at the thematic level or broad in focus, this case pitted the direct interests of influential member states against one another in a strategically important region. Read more

  • Status Update since our September Forecast

    The Elders On 7 September, the Security Council held a briefing on the maintenance of international peace and security with The Elders, a non-governmental organisation of independent global leaders founded in 2007 by Nelson Mandela that strives to promote peace... Read more

  • Mali and Sahel Visiting Mission

    During October, the Security Council will hold its quarterly briefing and consultations on Mali. Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) El-Ghassim Wane is expected to brief. The Council is also expected to conduct a visiting mission to the Sahel during the month, travelling to Mali and Niger. France and Niger are co-leading the mission. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    In October, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security.  Read more

  • Haiti

    In October, the Security Council will receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), Helen La Lime, on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH, due by 10 October. A civil society representative may also brief. The meeting may be followed by closed consultations. The Council will also negotiate the renewal of BINUH’s mandate, which expires on 15 October. Read more

  • Syria

    In October, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Great Lakes Region

    In October, the Security Council will convene to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Special Representative and head of the UN Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Bintou Keita, is expected to brief Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights) 

    In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO). The briefing will be on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, which is due in October, and on the most recent developments. Read more

  • Small Arms and Light Weapons

    In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing to consider the Secretary-General’s seventh biennial report on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW), to be submitted in accordance with the presidential statement adopted on 29 June 2007. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    In October, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), likely from Alexander Ivanko, the new Special Representative for Western Sahara and head of MINURSO, and from a UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs briefer. Council members are also expected to vote on a draft resolution to renew MINURSO’s mandate, which expires on 31 October. The Secretary-General’s report on the situation concerning Western Sahara is expected to be published ahead of the meeting. A meeting of troop-contributing countries with Council members is also scheduled ahead of MINURSO’s mandate renewal. Read more

  • Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate on the theme “Diversity and State-building” under the agenda item “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace”. President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya is expected to chair the session. Read more

  • Colombia

    In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, which was issued on 24 September. The Council is also expected to renew the verification mission’s mandate ahead of its 31 October expiry. Read more

  • Yemen

    In October, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths are likely to brief. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In October, the Council is expected to hold its second regular briefing this year on the situation in Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on recent developments and the latest report of the Secretary-General. Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In October, the Security Council will discuss the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which is due by 11 October. Mankeur Ndiaye, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and head of MINUSCA, an EU representative, and the AU Special Representative and head of the AU Office in the CAR are expected to brief. Read more

  • The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

    In October, the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. Read more

  • Somalia

    In October, the Security Council will engage on the issue of Somalia sanctions on several occasions. The chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason (Ireland), will deliver her 120-day periodic briefing to the Council on the activities of the committee. The Council will also receive the report of the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, on the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Somalia and any impediments to aid delivery. The Somalia sanctions regime will expire on 15 November, and the mandate of all members of the Somalia Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts will expire on 15 December. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, the resolution called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, the disarmament of all militias, and the extension of government control over the whole Lebanese territory. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief. The Secretary-General’s report is due on 13 October. Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In October, the Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), due by 15 October as requested in resolution 2575. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. Read more

  • UN-AU Cooperation

    In October, the Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate via videoconference (VTC) on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the AU. The president of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, is expected to chair the debate. Briefings are expected from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, and High Representative for the African Union Peace Fund Donald Kaberuka. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

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