October 2021 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2021
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Overview 

In October, Kenya will hold the presidency of the Security Council.

Kenya will hold several signature events during its presidency. It will convene a high-level open debate on the theme “Diversity and State-building” under the agenda item “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace”. President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya plans to chair the session.

The Council is also expected to hold a high-level open debate via videoconference (VTC) on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the AU. President Kenyatta is also expected to chair this meeting. Briefings are anticipated from Secretary-General Guterres, AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, and High Representative for the African Union Peace Fund Donald Kaberuka. A presidential statement is a possible outcome.

The annual open debate on women, peace and security is planned for October and will be held at ministerial level. It seems that the open debate will focus on the contribution of local women to peacekeeping, peacebuilding and transitional settings during and following UN peace operations. Similar to Ireland in September and Mexico next month, Kenya plans to make women, peace and security one of the key themes of its presidency.

A briefing to consider the Secretary-General’s seventh biennial report on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) will be convened. UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu, Executive Secretary of the Regional Centre on Small Arms in the Great Lakes Region, the Horn of Africa and Bordering States (RECSA) Lieutenant General Badreldin Elamin Abdelgadir, and Senior Researcher at Small Arms Survey David Lochhead are the anticipated briefers.

The Council will receive a briefing from the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes, Huang Xia, on the Secretary-General’s biannual report on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Region. The format of the meeting is expected to be a ministerial-level debate chaired by Kenyan Foreign Minister Raychelle Omamo. A presidential statement is the anticipated outcome of this meeting.

The Council is also expected to conduct a visiting mission to the Sahel during the month, travelling to Mali and Niger. France and Niger are co-leading the mission.

Other African issues on the programme of work in October are:

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo, a briefing on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO);
  • Western Sahara, a briefing in consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and a renewal of the mission’s mandate;
  • Central African Republic, a briefing on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA);
  • Somalia, a briefing on the work of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee;
  • Sudan/South Sudan, a briefing on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA); and
  • Mali, a briefing on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

The Council will hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Other Middle East issues on the programme of work this month include:

Two issues in the Americas will be discussed in October:

  • Haiti, a briefing on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and a renewal of BINUH’s mandate; and
  • Colombia, a briefing on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia and a renewal of the mission’s mandate.

A briefing on the work of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) is anticipated.