March 2021 Monthly Forecast

• In Memoriam: Edward C. Luck (1948-2021)

  With the entire UN community, Security Council Report (SCR) was deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Professor Edward C. Luck on 16 February. Ed was instrumental to SCR’s establishment, helping to develop the vision for the organisation and... Read more

• Overview 

  In March, the US will have the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

• In Hindsight: The Appointment of the Secretary-General 

  Secretary-General António Guterres’ five-year term concludes on 31 December 2021. The process of selecting and appointing the next Secretary-General officially commenced when the British Ambassador to the UN, Barbara Woodward, acting in her capacity as president of the Security Council, and General Assembly President Volkan Bozkir, issued a joint letter on 5 February to all member states, soliciting candidates for the position.  Read more

• Status Update since our February Forecast  

  Myanmar  On 2 February, Security Council members were briefed on Myanmar by Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener in a closed videoconference (VTC). The briefing took place the day after the Myanmar military detained civilian leaders and declared a year-long state of emergency. Schraner updated members on the developments that... Read more

• Syria

  In March, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on Syria regarding the political and humanitarian situations and the use of chemical weapons.   Read more

• Conflict and Hunger

  In March, the Security Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate via videoconference (VTC) on conflict and food security, which will be the signature event of the US Council presidency. Read more

• South Sudan

  In March, the Council is due to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) before its 15 March expiration. Prior to this, the Council expects a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report.   Read more

• Sudan

  In March, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). The briefing will cover the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UNITAMS, which includes information about the drawdown and withdrawal of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) as an annex, requested in resolutions 2524 and 2559. The chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), is expected to provide the quarterly briefing on the committee’s work.  Read more

• OSCE Briefing

  In March, Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ann Linde, the new Chairperson-in-Office (CiO) for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), is expected to brief the Security Council on the organisation’s activities.   Read more

• Yemen

  In March, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement. Read more

• Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

  In March, the chair of the 1540 Committee, Ambassador Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico), is scheduled to brief the Council on the work of the committee, which deals with the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.  Read more

• Lebanon (1701)

  In March, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, due on 9 March. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel. Briefings are expected from Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon Najat Rochdi and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In March, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. Deborah Lyons, the Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), is expected to brief on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the mission, due on 15 March. Read more

• Libya

  In March, the Security Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Envoy to Libya and head of the UN Support Mission for Libya (UNSMIL), Ján Kubiš, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador T. S. Tirumurti, the Permanent Representative of India. The Council may also receive a report by the Secretary-General on the work of the advance team that will be deployed to Libya in support of the envisioned establishment of a ceasefire monitoring mechanism under the umbrella of UNSMIL. Sanctions related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May. The authorisation given through resolution 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be in violation of the arms embargo) expires on 5 June and the authorisation given through resolution 2491 (to inspect vessels suspected of being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking) expires on 3 October. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea) 

  In March, the Council is expected to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee.  The panel’s mandate expires on 30 April.  Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In March, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) by the Department of Peace Operations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, also due in March, and on the most recent developments. UNDOF’s mandate expires on 30 June. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In March, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).  Read more