January 2020 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Viet Nam has the presidency of the Council in January. It has chosen to hold a ministerial-level open debate on “Maintenance of international peace and security: upholding the UN Charter”. Viet Nam will also convene a briefing on cooperation with regional and sub-regional organisations, with a focus on ASEAN. Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats

  The world’s first electronic computer, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), was completed in 1945, the year the United Nations was created. ENIAC’s applications were military: it was financed by the US Army. Nearly 75 years later, technology has vast reach and destabilising potential: a recent United Nations University report says that the combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and other powerful dual-use technologies places the world at “a time of technological rupture with implications for large-scale crisis prevention”. There are innumerable life-improving applications, but a far-reaching dark side. Read more

• Status Update since our December Forecast

  Status Update since our December Forecast Read more

• Syria

  Expected Council Action In January 2020, the Council expects to receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons. The cross-border/cross-line aid delivery mechanism, as mandated by resolution 2449 of 13 December... Read more

• Mali

  In January, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the Secretary-General’s bi-annual letter on the security situation, MINUSMA’s performance, and transition planning. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is likely to brief. Both the report and the letter are due in late December 2019. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In January, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief the Council to present the semi-annual UNOWAS report, which the Council should receive by the end of December 2019. Read more

• UN Charter

  In January 2020, Council president Viet Nam will convene a ministerial-level open debate on “Maintenance of international peace and security: upholding the UN Charter”. Viet Nam’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Pham Binh Minh, is expected to chair the meeting, and Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief. A presidential statement may be adopted during the meeting. Read more

• Yemen

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), which expires on 15 January 2020. The Council is also expected to receive its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock may brief on the humanitarian situation, and General Abhijit Guha, the head of UNMHA and chair of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC), is likely to brief in consultations. The Yemen Panel of Experts is due to submit its final report to the 2140 Sanctions Committee before providing it to the Council by 28 January. Read more

• Colombia

  In January 2020, the Council will receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the mission, which at press time was due on 26 December 2019. As was the practice in 2018 and 2019, the Council is likely to issue a press statement following the 90-day briefing. Read more

• Libya

  In January, the Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany. Read more

• Cyprus

  In January 2020, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 January expiry. Special Representative and head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and recent developments. A representative from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs may also brief. Read more

• Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

  In January, the Security Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, focusing on Israel/Palestine. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is likely to brief. Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In January 2020, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the Council in consultations on UNRCCA’s activities. Read more

• Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations

  Expected Council Action In January, Council president Viet Nam is expected to convene a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and regional organisations in maintaining international peace and security, with a focus on the relationship with the Association of... Read more

• CAR

  In January 2020, the Council is expected to renew the 2127 Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions regime, which expires at the end of the month. Read more