August 2019 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Poland has the presidency in August. Read more

• In Hindsight: Article 99 and Providing the Security Council with Early Warning

  Of the five articles in the UN Charter assigning functions to the Secretary-General, Article 99 is the most important in the context of international peace and security. It grants the Secretary-General the authority “to bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security”. In this way, Article 99 allows the Secretary-General to initiate a Security Council discussion. Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld underscored that “[it] is Article 99 more than any other which was considered by the drafters of the Charter to have transformed the Secretary-General from a purely administrative official to one with an explicit political responsibility”. The drafters of the Charter were fully aware of the weight of vesting this task in the Secretary-General: as the report of the UN Preparatory Commission points out, “the responsibility it confers upon the Secretary-General will require the exercise of the highest qualities of political judgment, tact and integrity”. Read more

• Status Update since our July Forecast

  Status Update since our July Forecast Read more

• Burundi

  In August, a representative of the UN Secretariat is scheduled to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi in accordance with resolution 2303 of 29 July 2016, which requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on Burundi every three months. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In August, Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (OCT), and Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), are expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  The Council is expected to hold an open debate on children and armed conflict in August. The debate will focus on the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict, which was circulated at the end of July. The open debate will be chaired by Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz. Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba will present the Secretary-General’s annual report. Other speakers are likely to include the Executive Director of UNICEF, Henrietta Fore; Mariatu Kamara, UNICEF Canada’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict; and Majok Peter Awan, a former child soldier and currently a UN child protection officer. Read more

• Rule of Law/Protection of Civilians/International Humanitarian Law

  In August, Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz is expected to preside over a briefing on “the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: international humanitarian law”. The anticipated briefers are ICRC President Peter Maurer, the Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs, UN Legal Counsel Miguel de Serpa Soares, and Dr. Annyssa Bellal, senior research fellow and strategic adviser on international humanitarian law at the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights. Read more

• Syria

  In August, the Council will receive the monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation, the political process, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

• UNOCA (Central Africa)

  In August, the Council will hold consultations to discuss the strategic review of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), due by 1 August. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Bintou Keita is expected to participate. An outcome addressing the conclusions of the review is possible. Read more

• Yemen

  In August, the Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock is likely to update the Council on the humanitarian situation. The 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee is also expected to consider the Yemen Panel of Experts’ mid-term update. Resolution 2456, which renewed the Yemen sanctions regime in February, requested that the panel submit the update to the committee by 28 July. Read more

• Debate on “Maintenance of international peace and security: Challenges to peace and security in the Middle East”

  The August Council presidency, Poland, is organising a debate on “Maintenance of international peace and security: Challenges to peace and security in the Middle East”. Briefers from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) and the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to participate. It is also likely that countries from the region and some regional organisations will be invited. Read more

• Somalia

  In August, the Security Council will have a briefing and consultations on the report on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). The Council may also hear an update from the Secretary-General in a separate meeting on ongoing developments towards the normalisation of relations between Djibouti and Eritrea. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In August, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) in accordance with resolution 2479, which requested the Secretary-General to provide the Security Council with an oral update about the situation on the ground 60 days after the adoption of the resolution. Read more

• Iraq

  In August, the Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, is expected to brief the Council on the most recent developments in the situation in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports—on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in August. UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2020. Read more

• Lebanon

  In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires on 31 August. Read more

• Mali

  In August, the Council is due to renew the Mali sanctions regime, which expires on 31 August, as well as the mandate of the Panel of Experts, which expires on 30 September. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the 90-day report about the committee’s work. Read more