May 2019 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 April 2019
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Overview

    Indonesia will hold the presidency in May. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Arria-Formula Meetings

    The “Arria-formula” is the most flexible meeting format the Security Council has at its disposal. It has been used every year since March 1992, when Ambassador Diego Arria of Venezuela wanted fellow Council members to hear an eyewitness account of atrocities occurring in the former Yugoslavia. Unable to find a formal way to hold such a meeting, Arria invited Council members to meet with the witness in the UN delegates’ lounge. This was deemed useful; several similarly informal briefings were soon held, and the term “Arria-formula meetings” was born. Read more

  • Status Update since our April Forecast

    Status Update since our April Forecast  Read more

  • Yemen

    In May, Special Envoy Martin Griffiths is expected to brief the Council on the implementation of resolutions 2451 and 2452. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock and General Michael Lollesgaard, the chair of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC) and head of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), may also brief. Read more

  • Peacekeeping

    In May, the Council will hold an open debate on “Investing in Peace: Delivering Quality Training and Capacity Building to Improve Safety and Security and Performance of UN Peacekeepers”. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres; the force commander of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Lieutenant General Elias Rodrigues Martins Filho; and the director of the secretariat of the International Forum for the Challenges of Peace Operations, Björn Holmberg, are expected to brief. Read more

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    In May, the Council will hold its biannual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, will brief, presenting the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Read more

  • Libya

    In May, Council members are expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany, Ambassador Jürgen Schulz, who chairs the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will also provide her semi-annual briefing to the Council. Read more

  • Syria

    In May, the Council will receive the monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation, the political process, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In May, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) prior to its 15 May expiration. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In May, the Council expects to receive the semi-annual briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. This briefing, usually conducted by the Special Coordinator for Lebanon or an official from the Department of Peacebuilding and Political Affairs, has traditionally been held in consultations. Read more

  • Group of Five for the Sahel

    In May, the Council expects a briefing on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel, which the group—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (G5 Sahel)—decided to establish in February 2017 to combat terrorist and criminal groups in the region. Read more

  • Iraq

    In May, the Council is expected to receive briefings on the Secretary-General’s latest reports on UNAMI and also on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property (including the national archives). The Council will also renew the mandate of UNAMI, which is set to expire on 31 May 2019. In addition, the Council expects to receive the second report on the activities of UNITAD in May. Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    In May, the Council is scheduled to receive its annual briefing from the chairs of its counter-terrorism-related committees: Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indonesia), chair of the 1540 Committee, which focuses on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee; and Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra Velásquez (Peru), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). Read more

  • Somalia

    The Council is expected to renew its authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), due to expire on 31 May. Read more

  • Protection of Civilians

    In May, the Council is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s report on protection of civilians and hold its annual open debate on the topic. It seems that Indonesia, as Council president, is planning to focus the debate on community engagement as a means of enhancing the protection of civilians. Secretary-General António Guterres and representatives of the ICRC and civil society are expected to brief. Read more

  • Burundi

    In May, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Michel Kafando, is scheduled to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi in accordance with resolution 2303 of 29 July 2016, which requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on Burundi every three months. Ambassador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, may also brief. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In May, the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the 90-day report of the work of the committee. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In May, the Council expects to adopt a resolution renewing the South Sudan sanctions regime, which expires on 31 May. The Council is also set to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the South Sudan Sanctions Committee by 31 May to avoid its expiration on 1 July, as set out in resolution 2428. Read more

  • Haiti

    In May, the Security Council could meet to discuss the transition of the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) to a non-peacekeeping UN presence. While no meeting is currently scheduled, resolution 2466 requires the Secretary-General to submit details for a follow-up mission to MINUJUSTH in May. Read more

Download Complete Forecast: PDF