March 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 February 2018
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  • Overview

    The Netherlands will have the presidency in March. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our February Forecast. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Procedural Votes

    The fact that procedural votes are occurring more frequently—there have been five since 2014, whereas there were only two in the decade prior to that—may be a reflection of the difficult dynamics in the Council in recent times, as well as the willingness of members to push for the Council to address specific issues, in spite of opposition from some members. Procedural votes can also be viewed as a useful way to of raise awareness and create a record of the Council’s efforts to engage on critical issues. Read more

  • Peacekeeping Operations

    In March, at the initiative of the Netherlands, the Security Council is expected to hold an open debate on “Collective Action to Improve UN Peacekeeping Operations”. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief the Council at the meeting, which will be chaired by the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. A presidential statement taking into consideration the positions stated at the meeting is likely to be negotiated following the open debate. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Expected Council Action In March, the Security Council is due to renew the mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), known as MONUSCO, which expires on 31 March. The newly appointed Special... Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In March, the Council will renew the mandate of UNAMA, which expires on 17 March. It will also hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan, during which it will consider the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UNAMA. The debate is scheduled to coincide with International Women’s Day (8 March), and the Netherlands, the Council president in March, and the penholder on Afghanistan, may encourage members to highlight women’s issues in their statements.   Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. Read more

  • Somalia and Eritrea

    In March, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of UNSOM, which expires on 31 March. The Council is also expected to receive a briefing in consultations from the Chair of the 751/1907 Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kairat Umarov (Kazakhstan). Read more

  • South Sudan

    In March, the Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the authorisation for the Regional Protection Force (RPF), before their 15 March expiration. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In March, the Security Council will be briefed on the 60-day report of the Secretary-General on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June 2018. Read more

  • Syria

    In March, the Council expects to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria, as well as an additional briefing on the implementation of resolution 2401. Council members are also expected to hold an informal interactive dialogue on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Lebanon (1701)

    In March, Acting UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Pernille Dahler Kardel, and possibly a representative of DPKO, will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The mandate of the UNIFIL expires on 31 August. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In March, the Security Council is expected to adopt a resolution to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee for another 13 months. The panel’s final report is expected to be sent to the Council in mid-March. Read more

  • Libya

    In March, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, Ghassan Salamé, followed by consultations. Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), the chair of the Libya Sanctions Committee, is also expected to brief the Council. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the Sanctions Committee expires on 15 November. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    In March, Council members are expected to meet in consultations to receive a briefing from the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Western Sahara, Horst Köhler, who was appointed on 16 August 2017, and Special Representative Colin Stewart, appointed to head MINURSO on 1 December 2017. The briefing, originally slated for February, is in response to Resolution 2351, adopted on 28 April 2017. In renewing the mandate of MINURSO for an additional year, the resolution requested the Secretary-General to update the Security Council within six months of the appointment of the new personal envoy. The resolution called for information about the ways in which the envoy, working with the parties, was progressing towards a mutually acceptable political solution that would provide for the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara; how MINURSO’s performance measures were being developed and implemented; and how structures and staffing could be reorganised to achieve mission goals efficiently.  MINURSO’s mandate expires on 30 April. Read more

  • Lake Chad Basin

    The Netherlands, as Council president in March, is organising a briefing on the Lake Chad Basin, with a specific focus on the root causes of the Boko Haram crisis. Speakers are expected to include representatives from the Secretariat, possibly the Lake Chad Basin Commission, and a civil society organisation. Read more

  • Conflict and Hunger

    In March, at the initiative of the Council president, the Netherlands, the Council is expected to hold a high-level briefing on conflict and hunger. Possible briefers include representatives of the UN’s Rome-based agencies. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In March, DPKO will brief Council members in consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). No outcome is expected. UNDOF was established in 1974 to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Its mandate, which is renewed bi-annually, expires on 30 June. Read more

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