August 2017 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Egypt will have the presidency in August. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our July Forecast Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and Climate Change-An Ambivalent Relationship

  The year 2017 marks the tenth anniversary of the Security Council’s earliest consideration of climate change. During the past decade, it has been a matter of some controversy whether or not the Council is an appropriate body to address this issue. Numerous Council members have underscored the security implications of climate change, but China, Russia and other countries have expressed concern that the Council’s engagement on this matter encroaches on the prerogatives of other UN organs, notably the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council. Despite the political tensions associated with addressing climate change, the Council has over time managed to engage with this issue in two open debates, in formal meetings covering a wide range of emerging threats to peace and security, and in informal Arria-formula meetings. Read more

• Sanctions

  Egypt has scheduled a briefing in August under the agenda item “General issues relating to sanctions”. A representative of the Department of Political Affairs will brief, and a resolution addressing a number of matters applicable to sanctions across the board is expected to be adopted as the briefing’s outcome. At press time, the draft resolution was being negotiated. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In August, the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy), is due to brief Security Council members in consultations on the Committee’s work. In addition, the Council may adopt a resolution in response to the DPRK’s 4 July missile test. At press time, bilateral negotiations on the draft text were ongoing between China and the US. Additional meetings may be called for if there is another missile launch during the month. Read more

• Syria

  In August, Council members expect to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria as well as on chemical weapons. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In August, the Council expects a briefing by Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed following her 19-28 July joint visit to the DRC and Nigeria with the AU Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security, Bineta Diop. Executive Director of UN Women Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and the UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, who were also on the mission, will participate in the briefing. Read more

• Sahel

  In August, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the joint force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel), comprising Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Resolution 2359 of 21 June asked the Secretary-General to provide an oral briefing within two months of the adoption on the activities of the G5 Sahel, “including on its operationalization, on challenges encountered and possible measures for further consideration”. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In August, Council members may be briefed on the first of two reports requested in resolution 2352 on UNISFA. Read more

• Kosovo

  In August, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on the situation in Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. As on several previous occasions, Serbia is likely to participate at a high level, while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  During August the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s report on progress in implementing the 31 December 2016 agreement on the electoral process and a transitional government in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It is also likely to receive the final report of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee on the Committee’s Group of Experts.  Read more

• Libya

  In August, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé. The chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), is also expected to brief the Council. Read more

• South Sudan

  In August, the Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General’s 30-day assessment of UNMISS and the deployment and future requirements of the RPF. The UNMISS mandate expires on 15 December.  Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In August, the Council expects a briefing on Guinea-Bissau from the Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), Modibo Touré, and the chair of the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Elbio Rosselli (Uruguay). Ambassador Mauro Vieira (Brazil), chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), is also likely to brief. Read more

• Briefing on Cooperation between the UN and the League of Arab States

  In August, the Council will hold a briefing followed by an informal interactive dialogue on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations with a focus on the partnership with the League of Arab States. The UN Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul-Gheit, will brief the Council. Secretary-General António Guterres may also brief. No outcome is expected.   Read more

• Peacekeeping and Sustaining Peace

  In August, Egypt will organise an open debate on peacekeeping operations and sustaining peace. No outcome is planned. Read more

• Somalia

  In August, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution reauthorising the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) for an additional year.  Read more

• Lebanon

  In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires on 31 August. Read more