May 2017 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 April 2017
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  • Overview

    Uruguay will have the presidency in May. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our April Forecast Read more

  • Notable Dates for May

    Notable Dates for May Read more

  • In Hindsight: Council Dynamics and Syria Negotiations

    In the first half of April, the Council was engaged in a series of contentious meetings and negotiations on Syria that culminated in Russia’s eighth veto of a Syria resolution since October 2011. Read more

  • Protection of Civilians

    In May, the Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict. Uruguayan Minister of Foreign Affairs Rodolfo Nin Novoa will preside. Secretary-General António Guterres and a high-level representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) are expected to brief, in addition to a possible civil society briefer. The meeting will focus on the broad array of issues in the Secretary-General’s report on the protection of civilians (expected to be released by 15 May) and on the implementation of resolution 2286 of 3 May 2016, which focused on the protection of health care in armed conflict. No formal outcome is anticipated, although Uruguay has expressed its intention to produce a chair’s summary of the debate. Read more

  • Women and Peace and Security

    In May, the Council expects to hold an open debate on the Secretary-General’s annual report on conflict-related sexual violence, focusing particularly on sexual violence in conflict as a tactic of war and terrorism. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed and Under-Secretary-General Adama Dieng, who is currently officer-in-charge of the Office of the Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, will brief, together with Mina Jaf, Executive Director of Women Refugee Route, as a civil society representative. Uruguay plans to circulate a concept note ahead of the debate, but at press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

  • Visiting Mission to Colombia

    Council members will undertake a visiting mission to Colombia at the beginning of May. The mission is intended to demonstrate the Council’s commitment to the peace process in Colombia and to commend the parties on bringing an end to the conflict. According to the mission’s terms of reference, Council members will prioritise getting a better understanding of the aspirations and concerns of the parties and other actors, and encouraging the parties to maintain their positive cooperation and momentum in implementing the agreement. The UK and Uruguay are co-leading the mission. Read more

  • Libya

    In May, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. Read more

  • EU-UN Briefing

    In May, the Council will hold its annual meeting on strengthening the partnership with the EU, under its agenda item on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations. Federica Mogherini, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, will brief the Council. Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    In May, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of UNISFA prior to its 15 May expiration. Read more

  • Syria

    In May, Council members expect to receive briefings on the humanitarian and political situations in Syria, as well as on chemical weapons. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In May, the Council is expected to hold a quarterly briefing on the situation in Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. Serbia is likely to participate at a high level, while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

  • Somalia

    In May, the Council is expected to renew the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which expires on 31 May. The Council also expects to receive the report of the AU-UN joint assessment of AMISOM requested by resolution 2297, and recommendations from the Secretary-General on the UN’s role in Somalia in the post-election period requested by resolution 2275. Read more

  • Lebanon (1559)

    In May, the Council expects to receive the semi-annual briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    In May, the Council will hold its biannual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, will brief, presenting the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    In May, the Council is scheduled to receive a briefing from the chairs of its counter-terrorism-related committees. Read more

  • Peacekeeping

    In May, the Council will be briefed on aspects of UN peacekeeping by the force commanders of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), and the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is also expected to address the Council.  The force commander briefings, which have been held annually since 2010, focus on the operational challenges of implementing mission mandates.  No outcome is anticipated. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In May, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the 2206 South Sudan sanctions regime, which expires on 31 May. The Council is also set to renew the mandate of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts. In addition, the Council will most likely consider the Secretary-General’s 30-day assessment of the deployment and future requirements of the RPF, obstacles to setting up the force, and impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 December 2017. Read more

  • Iraq

    In May, Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Ján Kubiš will brief on recent developments and will provide an update on the government’s efforts to retake Mosul from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In May, the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy), is due to brief Security Council members in consultations on the Committee’s work. Read more

  • Yemen

    In May, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. Read more

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