January 2017 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Sweden will have the presidency of the Council in January. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in December 2016. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for January Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and the International Court of Justice

  The UN Charter envisioned a symbiotic relationship between the Security Council and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal judicial organ of the UN. However, the Council has scarcely made use of the ICJ as an instrument, or “tool”, in the exercise of its responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. In its latest research report on the rule of law of 20 December 2016, Security Council Report examines the relationship between the Security Council and the ICJ, including options for enhancing that relationship to assist the Council in its work. Read more

• Conflict Prevention

  In January, the Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on “conflict prevention and sustaining peace”. Margot Wallström, Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, is expected to preside. Newly appointed UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be the sole briefer. At press time, it did not appear that there would be a Council product; however, it is anticipated that Sweden will produce a summary of the debate. Read more

• Syria

  In January, Council members expect to receive a briefing on the chemical weapons track as well as their regular monthly briefings on the humanitarian and political situations in Syria. Other activity could not be ruled out, given the urgent nature of the Syrian crisis. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In January, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous is likely to brief the Council on developments in the country and the latest report of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Council will closely follow political and security developments in the DRC and may convene additional meetings as necessary. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In January, the Council will receive a briefing, and hold consultations, on the Secretary-General’s report on UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), whose mandate expires on 30 June 2017. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous is expected to brief. While unconfirmed at press time, it is possible that an AU representative may brief as well.  No outcome is expected. Read more

• UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel

  In January, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief on the semi-annual UNOWAS report. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In January, the Council is expected to hold its regular quarterly open debate on the Middle East, with a focus on Israel/Palestine. Read more

• Mali

  In January, the Council expects to receive a briefing on Mali from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Mahamat Saleh Annadif.   Read more

• Iran

  In January, the Council will consider the implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman is expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on the resolution’s implementation, due by early January according to a 16 January 2016 note from the Council president. In addition, briefings are expected by a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission, the body responsible for overseeing the JCPOA’s implementation, and Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy), the incoming 2231 Council facilitator, who succeeds Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain) on 1 January.  Read more

• Somalia

  In January, the Council expects to receive the report of the Secretary-General on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The Secretary-General’s options and recommendations for the UN presence in Somalia in the post-electoral phase requested by resolution 2275 were also expected in January, however, with the electoral process not yet complete, it is unclear when these will be transmitted. The mandate of UNSOM expires on 31 March 2017. Read more

• Cyprus

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months ahead of its 31 January expiry. Elizabeth Spehar, Special Representative and head of mission, is likely to brief on the latest UNFICYP report, which is due by 8 January 2017. In addition, the Special Adviser of the Secretary-General, Espen Barth Eide, is expected to brief on the developments in the negotiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the sanctions regime imposed on the Central African Republic (CAR) and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee. Read more

• South Sudan

  In January, the Council will closely follow the situation in South Sudan. There is likely to be a meeting to consider the Secretary-General’s 30-day assessment of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), including the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force (RPF), obstacles to setting up the force and impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Read more