December 2016 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Spain will have the presidency of the Council in December. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in November 2016. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for December Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Ever Evolving Relationship with Human Rights

  Most conflicts on today’s Council agenda are accompanied by severe human rights violations perpetrated on civilian populations by insurgents and in many cases, also by governments or those linked to them. A surge in human rights violations has often been a sign of potentialoutbreak of a conflict, or a predictor of increased instability and conflict escalation. The need for human rights information and analysis has come to be generally accepted as an aspect of the reality the Security Council needs to consider in order to be effective in fulfilling its main objective, the maintenance of international peace and security. But this acceptance came only relatively recently, after decades of questioning the appropriateness of Council’s concern with human rights, and the level of Council’s interest has fluctuated from year to year. Read more

• South Sudan

  The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the authorisation for the yet-to-be deployed Regional Protection Force (RPF), before their 15 December expiration. It will also consider the Secretary-General’s monthly assessment, called for in resolution 2304, on the deployment and future requirements of the RPF, on obstacles to setting up the force and on impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Members are anticipating a vote on a draft resolution to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan and additional targeted sanctions, although it was unclear at press time if and when this would happen.  Read more

• Liberia

  The mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) expires on 31 December. The Council is expected to hold consultations and subsequently adopt a resolution on UNMIL in line with the Secretary-General’s recommendations contained in his report on the assessment mission to Liberia. Briefings by DPKO and the Peace Building Commission are likely.   Read more

• Libya

  In December, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNSMIL Martin Kobler will brief on recent political developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report. The Council also expects a briefing by the chair of the 1970 Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia). Read more

• UNOCA/LRA

  In December, François Louncény Fall, Acting Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), will brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA).   Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In December, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on the ad hoc international criminal tribunals. The presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals—established in 2010 to carry out a number of essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the ICTY, after the completion of their respective mandates—are expected to brief, and may meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to the debate. A resolution is expected to be adopted to extend the terms of ICTY judges and the ICTY prosecutor. Read more

• Syria

  Council members expect to receive the regular monthly briefings on the political and humanitarian situations in Syria and could not rule out other activity, given the urgent nature of the Syrian crisis. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In December, Council members will hold a debate on international judicial cooperation on counter-terrorism. Justice ministers or attorneys general of Council members have been invited to participate in the meeting, which will be chaired by Spanish Justice Minister Rafael Catalá. The adoption of a resolution is the anticipated outcome. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In December, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is expected to provide the semi-annual briefing to the Council on the Court’s work on Darfur. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Read more

• Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

  In December, the Council is scheduled to hold a high-level debate and may adopt a resolution on the comprehensive review of the implementation of resolution 1540, which seeks to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to non-state actors. Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alfonso María Dastis, is expected to chair the meeting.   Read more

• Afghanistan

  In December, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan, during which it will consider the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Afghanistan, Tadamichi Yamamo, is expected to brief. The Chair of the Sanctions Committee, Gerard van Bohemen (New Zealand), may also brief on his recent visit to Afghanistan. Read more

• Subsidiary Bodies

  In an annual practice dating back to 2002, subsidiary body chairs from outgoing elected Security Council members are expected to brief the Council in December.  The meeting provides an opportunity for the chairs to review developments within the relevant committee or working group during their term, assess their experience and suggest recommendations for improvements. Read more

• Human Trafficking

  In December, Yury Fedotov, the head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, will present the Secretary-General’s report on human trafficking to the Security Council. In addition, Special Representative for Sexual Violence in Conflict Zainab Bangura may participate, along with a trafficking victim. It is expected that a resolution will be adopted seeking to enhance international efforts to counter human trafficking. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In December, the Council is expected to hold a meeting on the human rights situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). At press time, a group of Council members including France, Japan, New Zealand, Spain, the UK, Ukraine, Uruguay, the US and most likely Malaysia, was planning to send a joint letter to the Council president requesting that such a meeting be convened.  Read more

• Yemen

  In December, the Council is likely to receive a briefing from the Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. Read more