December 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2016
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update


On 1 November, the Council adopted a presidential statement welcoming the election of President Michel Aoun in accordance with the Lebanese constitution and stressing that the formation of a unity government and the election of a parliament by May 2017 are critical for Lebanon’s stability (S/PRST/2016/15). On 2 November, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman briefed Council members in consultations on the latest report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1559 (S/2016/882), and on 10 November Special Coordinator Sigrid Kaag and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed members in consultations on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (S/2016/931).

Ad-Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa

On 1 November, the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution held a meeting on the relationship between the Security Council and the Peacebuilding Commission. A focus of the meeting was how to implement resolution 2282, which describes the concept of “sustaining peace” as “a process…which encompasses activities aimed at preventing the outbreak, escalation, continuation and recurrence of conflict.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 2 November, the Council was briefed by the Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, followed by consultations, on the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework and other developments in the region (S/PV.7800). The 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee met with Special Representative for Sexual Violence in Conflict Zainab Bangura on 9 November (SC/12592). Angola and France co-led a Council visiting mission to the DRC and Angola from 11 to 14 November to meet with key actors to defuse a political crisis caused by the delay in the electoral process. The delegation arrived in Kinshasa on the evening of 11 November and received a briefing by the leadership of MONUSCO. On 12 November, it attended a series of meetings with government officials, members of the opposition, Catholic Church mediators and representatives of civil society organisations. On 13 November, Council members visited Beni in eastern DRC, an area that in the last two years has experienced high levels of violence against civilians. In Beni, Council members were briefed by the MONUSCO force commander and the mission’s civilian leadership. The Council delegation met with local politicians and held a brief encounter with the representatives of local civil society. On 14 November, the mission went to Angola’s capital, Luanda. According to the terms of reference for the visiting mission (S/2016/948), the purpose of this leg of the trip was to hold talks with President José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola, in his capacity as President of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, as well as to meet with the President of the National Assembly and the diplomatic corps accredited to Angola. These meetings were intended to jointly assess the political and security developments in the DRC and the region with the purpose of engaging in and supporting the regional efforts related to peace and stability in the DRC. However, instead, Council members met with the country’s vice president and the vice president of the National Assembly, as both the Angolan President and the President of the National Assembly were not in Luanda. On 23 November, the Council was briefed by the co-leads of the visiting mission, Ambassadors François Delattre (France) and Ismael Abraão Gaspar Martins (Angola) (S/PV.7819).


On 2 November, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Andrew Gilmour and the head of OCHA, Stephen O’Brien, briefed Council members in consultations under “any other business” on the human rights and humanitarian implications of the offensive to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. On 9 November, Special Representative Ján Kubiš briefed the Council and presented the Secretary-General’s reports on UNAMI (S/2016/897) and on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property (S/2016/885). The security and humanitarian impact of the Mosul offensive was highlighted during the briefing (S/PV.7804).


On 3 November, the Council adopted a presidential statement that strongly condemned repeated ceasefire violations in Mali over the last few months and urged the parties to expeditiously carry out all their commitments under the 2015 Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation (S/PRST/2016/16). On 7 November, Council members issued a press statement condemning an attack on a complex near Douentza, in the centre of Mali, during which two Malian civilians and one Togolese MINUSMA peacekeeper were killed (SC/12579).

Western Sahara

On 3 November, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed Council members under “any other business” on his trip to the Layoune and Sahrawi refugee camps in southwestern Algeria.

Sudan and South Sudan

On 3 November, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed Council members on the activities of UNISFA and the most recent report of the Secretary-General (S/2016/864) on Abyei, the disputed area straddling the Sudan-South Sudan border. On 15 November, the Council adopted resolution 2318 renewing the mission’s mandate for six months. At press time, Nicholas Haysom, the UN Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, was expected to brief members (via video teleconference) on 29 November in consultations on Sudan/South Sudan issues.

Peace Operations

On 7 November, the Council held a ministerial-level open debate on “Peace operations—facing asymmetric threats” (S/PV.7802). UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson, Secretary-General of the International Organization of La Francophonie Michaëlle Jean, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate Jean-Paul Laborde, and Director of the International Peace Institute’s Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations Arthur Boutellis briefed. The meeting was chaired by the Foreign Minister of Senegal, Mankeur Ndiaye, and discussion was guided by a concept note circulated by Senegal prior to the meeting (S/2016/927).

Central African Republic

On 8 November, Deputy-Secretary-General Jan Eliasson briefed Council members under “any other business” on his recent visit to the CAR. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2016/17) on 16 November, strongly encouraging contributions at the international donors’ conference in Brussels on 17 November to support stabilisation and development in the CAR (S/PV.7812).


On 8 November, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar, briefed Council members in consultations on his recent meetings in the region and on the Secretary-General’s report on the situation in Burundi.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

On 8 November, the Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina and adopted resolution 2315, renewing the authorisation of EUFOR ALTHEA for an additional year (S/PV.7803). Valentin Inzko, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, briefed on developments covered in both his 28 October six-month report and an appended 21 October special report (S/2016/911).

Somalia and Eritrea

On 8 November, Council members met for a briefing by the Chair of the 751/1907 Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Rafael Darío Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela), on the final reports of the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group (S/2016/919 and S/2016/920). On 9 November, the Council adopted resolution 2316 reauthorising Somalia anti-piracy measures (S/PV.7805). On 10 November, the Council adopted resolution 2317 on Somalia and Eritrea sanctions with ten votes in favour (S/PV.7807). Angola, China, Egypt, Russia and Venezuela had hoped to include a request for the SEMG to report within 120 days on recommendations for lifting sanctions measures imposed on Eritrea; however, this proposal was rejected and the five countries abstained.

UN Policing

On 10 November, the Council held its annual briefing by the heads of police components on the role of policing in UN peace operations (S/PV.7808). Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed on the current challenges to effective UN policing. Four police commissioners shared their experiences regarding different aspects of UN policing: Bruce Munyambo (UNMISS), Priscilla Makotose (UNAMID), Georges-Pierre Monchotte (MINUSTAH) and Issoufou Yacouba (MINUSMA). Prior to the briefing Senegal circulated a concept note (S/2016/947). A Secretary-General’s report on UN policing was circulated that same day (S/2016/952).

Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict

The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict held a formal meeting on 14 November. During the meeting, the Office of the Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict and UNICEF presented two Global Horizontal Notes covering the first half of 2016. The members of the Working Group also discussed the consolidation of protection functions in UN missions and the possibility of a Working Group visiting mission by the end of 2016.


On 16 November, Special Representative Zahir Tanin briefed the Council at its quarterly briefing on Kosovo (S/PV.7811), presenting the latest UNMIK report (S/2016/901). Tanin noted that the security situation in Kosovo continues to remain stable, despite political tensions arising from the rift between the government and the opposition parties. Tanin said that there has been lack of progress on the implementation of the EU facilitated agreements between Belgrade and Pristina, especially regarding the formation of Association/Community of Serb Municipalities. Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dačić and Kosovo’s Ambassador to the US, Vlora Çitaku, also made statements.


On 17 November, Paris Prosecutor François Molins (France) and Deputy Assistant Attorney General Bruce Swartz (US) briefed the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee on international cooperation in mutual legal assistance matters. On 21 November, Ukraine organised an open Arria-formula meeting on the protection of critical infrastructure against terrorist attacks. The meeting was chaired by Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko and there were three panelists: Sergiy Semochko, head of the Department for Counterintelligence and Protection of the National Economy of the Security Service of Ukraine; Frank Westfall, Regional Director of the Office of Infrastructure Protection of the US Department of Homeland Security; and Scott Aaronson, Executive Director for Security and Business Continuity of the Edison Electric Institute. On 28 November, Spain and Senegal organised an Arria-formula meeting on cybersecurity and international peace and security.


On 17 November, at the request of the US, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar, briefed Council members under “any other business”. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Andrew Gilmour was present to answer questions. The discussions focused on the recent escalation of violence in Rakhine state and the humanitarian and human rights situation. While emphasising that lack of access made it difficult to assess the situation, Nambiar said there were signs of more organised resistance by the Rohingya and a risk of further radicalisation of the conflict.

UN-OIC Cooperation

On 17 November, the Council held a briefing on cooperation between the UN and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation focused on enhancing the existing strategic partnership in the area of countering extremist ideology (S/PV.7813). Mankeur Ndiaye, Senegal’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Senegalese Abroad, chaired the meeting. UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Miroslav Jenca, Assistant Secretary General of OIC Hameed Opeleyeru and Souleymane Bachir Diagne, Professor of French and Romance Philology and of Philosophy at Columbia University, briefed. Senegal on 11 November sent a letter that contained a concept note for the event (S/2016/965).

UN-AU Cooperation

On 18 November, the Council held a debate on “Strengthening the UN-AU partnership in peace and security” (S/PV.7816). The Council received briefings by El-Ghassim Wane, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations; Ambassador Tete Antonio, AU permanent observer to the UN; Haile Menkerios, Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the AU; and Dr. Donald Kaberuka, AU High Representative for the Peace Fund. At the meeting, Council members unanimously adopted resolution 2320 which welcomed the AU Assembly decision to fund 25 percent of AU peace support operations, to be phased incrementally over five years. Senegal circulated a concept note ahead of the meeting (S/2016/966). The debate took place in the context of three reports: a Secretary-General’s report on ways to strengthen the UN-AU partnership (S/2016/780), a joint UN-AU review of mechanisms currently available to finance and support AU peace support operations authorised by the Council (S/2016/809) and Kaberuka’s report on financing the AU and the AU Peace Fund.

Water, Peace and Security

On 22 November, the Council held an open debate on water, peace and security with briefings by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon; Danilo Turk, Chair of the Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace; Vice-President of the ICRC Christine Beerli; and Sundeep Waslekar, the President of Strategic Foresight Group. Council members addressed various aspects of water management and its implication on peace and security (S/PV.7818). Furthermore, the briefers and members of the Council discussed different ways the UN could assist in addressing the issue of water and its relation to peace and security. Ahead of the debate, Senegal circulated the concept note (S/2016/969). The concept note emphasised that water scarcity and its mismanagement could play a major role as a driver of conflict and that there is a need to protect this resource in the context of armed conflict.


The Council held its regular monthly meeting on the Middle East on 23 November (S/PV.7820). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov briefed.