October 2016 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Russia will have the presidency of the Council in October Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in September 2016. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for October Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council Penholders

  Contrary to a widespread assumption, the Security Council’s so-called penholder system is not a longstanding practice. Rather, it is still in its first decade. Under the current arrangement, most Council outcomes (including resolutions, presidential statements or press statements) are drafted by one of the P3 (France, the UK and the US) which are the penholders on most situation-specific issues on the Council’s agenda. As of early 2016, the US was serving as the penholder for eight of these situation-specific agenda items, the UK for seven and France for six. Elected members have been serving as penholders on Afghanistan and Guinea-Bissau and on some thematic issues. Read more

• Secretary-General Appointment

  Council members will hold their first colour-coded straw poll in early October as a further test of the viability of candidates who have been nominated for the position of the next Secretary-General. Since July, five undifferentiated straw polls have been held, but this one will provide the first clear indication of which candidates could face a veto in a formal vote. The Council will then decide whether it is ready to move to a formal vote on a resolution conveying its recommendation to the General Assembly for the next Secretary-General. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  Expected Council Action In October, the Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the report of the Secretary-General on the UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), whose mandate expires on 30 June 2017. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé... Read more

• Mali

  In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing from Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous. The mandate of MINUSMA expires on 30 June 2017. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In October, Special Representative Parfait Onanga-Anyanga will brief on the report of the Secretary-General on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In October, the Security Council will be briefed by Maman Sambo Sidikou, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, will brief on the latest report on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework Agreement. Read more

• Haiti

  This month the Security Council is due to extend the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) before the current mandate expires on 15 October. Ahead of the renewal, the Council is expected to convene a meeting with troop-contributing countries (TCCs) and hold a debate with a briefing by Special Representative Sandra Honoré, who will present the Secretary-General’s 31 August MINUSTAH report. The debate is likely to take place after elections in Haiti, currently scheduled for 9 October.  Read more

• Syria

  Following the breakdown of the 9 September cessation of hostilities agreement between Russia and the US, it remains unclear how Council members will address the situation in Syria. At press time, Council members expected to receive the regular monthly briefings on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks but could not rule out other activity, given the fluid nature of the Syrian crisis. Read more

• South Sudan

  In October, Council members are expected to hold consultations to consider the Secretary-General’s second monthly assessment on the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force, as well as obstacles to setting up the force and impediments to the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) in carrying out its mandate. Members may also be interested in discussing the findings of the independent special investigation called for by the Secretary-General, “into the violence in Juba…in July 2016, and the response of the UN Mission in South Sudan.” The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 December.  Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In October, the Council is expected to hold its regular quarterly open debate on the Middle East, with a focus on Israel/Palestine. Also in October, an Arria-formula meeting will be co-hosted by five Council members—Angola, Egypt, Malaysia, Senegal and Venezuela—on illegal Israeli settlements. Read more

• Yemen

  In October, the Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, is expected to brief the Council, followed by consultations. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In late October, the Security Council will hold its annual debate on women, peace and security and the implementation of resolution 1325. The Executive Director of UN Women and two civil society representatives are expected to brief. The Secretary-General may also participate, though this was not confirmed at press time. Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen about the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 urged the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, the Council may receive the second of this year’s semi-annual briefings on the situation in Western Sahara by Special Representative and head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) Kim Bolduc and Personal Envoy Christopher Ross.  Read more