October 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2016
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Russia will have the presidency of the Council in October, when Council members will hold their first colour-coded straw poll for the position of the next Secretary-General, giving the first clear indication of which candidates could face a veto in a formal vote.

Russia has organised a debate on UN cooperation with regional and sub-regional organisations, in particular the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

The Council is expected to adopt a resolution early in the month renewing member states’ authorisation to interdict vessels used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking on the high seas off the coast of Libya. The other adoption scheduled for October is the renewal of MINUSTAH’s mandate in Haiti.

Members will be closely following developments in Syria, following the rupture of the 9 September cessation of hostilities agreement between Russia and the US, and the massive military escalation in Aleppo. The regular monthly briefings on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks have been scheduled, but other Council activity is possible, given the urgent nature of the Syrian crisis.

There will be discussion on several other Middle East issues this month:

  • Israel/Palestine, the quarterly open debate and an Arria-formula meeting on illegal Israeli settlements;
  • Lebanon, the implementation of resolution 1559; and
  • Yemen, the regular update by the Special Envoy.

Council members will continue to monitor developments in South Sudan and will consider the Secretary-General’s monthly assessment on the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force, as well as obstacles to setting up the Force and impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Other African issues that will be considered this month are:

Finally, the Council will hold two annual meetings in October, the open debate on women, peace and security and a private briefing by the International Court of Justice.



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