August 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 July 2016
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  • Overview

    Malaysia holds the presidency for August. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in July 2016. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for August Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Informal Expert Group on the Protection of Civilians

    The informal expert group on the protection of civilians was formed in 2009 at the initiative of the UK, the penholder on the protection of civilians. The group, which continues to meet regularly in 2016, receives briefings from OCHA and asks questions of OCHA and other UN entities on relevant protection concerns prior to the mandate renewals of peace operations. While the expert group is not a formal subsidiary body of the Council, the idea for it grew out of a recommendation in the Secretary-General’s 2007 protection of civilians report, which called for establishing “a dedicated, expert-level working group to facilitate the systematic and sustained consideration and analysis of protection concerns, and to ensure consistent application of the aide-memoire for the consideration of issues pertaining to the protection of civilians”. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) modifying it to address the most recent crisis on the ground. At press time, the Council was poised to adopt a resolution that would briefly roll over the mandate of UNMISS before its 31 July expiry. Read more

  • Children and Armed Conflict

    In August, the Council is expected to hold an open debate to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict and its addendum. Malaysia, the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict and this month’s president, has circulated a concept note for the meeting noting the achievements over the last 20 years and highlighting key developments in the children and armed conflict agenda in 2015 and 2016. Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    In August, Council members are expected to meet for the quarterly consultations on Sudan/South Sudan issues. At press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In August, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Secretary-General's Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General's report. Serbia will probably participate at a high level, while Kosovo is likely to be represented by its ambassador to the US.     Read more

  • Syria

    In August, Council members will receive their regular monthly briefings regarding Syria on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks. Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), is due to brief Council members in consultations on the Committee’s work. Read more

  • Liberia

    In August, the Council is expecting a briefing from Farid Zarif, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), on the Secretary-General’s report, which is due 15 August, and recent developments. Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), chair of the Liberia configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, may brief as well. Read more

  • Non-Proliferation

    In August, the Council is expected to hold a ministerial-level open debate on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to non-state actors. Expected briefers include Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and representatives of inter-governmental organisations and civil society. Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman is expected to chair the open debate. At press time, it was unclear whether there would be an outcome. Read more

  • Yemen

    In August, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismael Ould Cheikh Ahmed, is expected to brief the Council. Also during August, the Yemen 2140 Sanctions Committee is due to consider the mid-term report of the Panel of Experts. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In August, the Security Council is expected to extend the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for another year, ahead of its expiry on 31 August. Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    In August, the Council will receive a briefing on Guinea-Bissau from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Modibo Touré, followed by consultations. Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil), chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s (PBC) Guinea-Bissau configuration, is also expected to brief. Also in August, the 2048 Committee is expected to consider a Secretary-General’s report on the Guinea-Bissau sanctions ahead of a Council review of the sanctions in September. Read more

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