January 2016 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Uruguay has planned an open debate focusing on protection of civilians during its presidency of the Security Council in January 2016. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in December 2015. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for January. Read more

• Syria

  Council members will receive their regular monthly briefings on the chemical weapons and humanitarian tracks in Syria. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura is also expected to brief on the political track in January. Read more

• Mali

  In January, the Council expects to receive a briefing from Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous,  followed by consultations. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In January, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Aïchatou Mindaoudou, regarding the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCI. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In January, the Council will be briefed by Maman Sambo Sidikou, the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In January, the Council will receive a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation for Darfur (UNAMID), which was expected to be released by 28 December. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June 2016. Read more

• South Sudan

  The Council will receive the Secretary-General’s plan, due by 15 January 2016, for “appropriate action to deter and respond to any escalation of violence in and around Juba, in order to effectively protect civilians, and to protect critical infrastructure in Juba”, in accordance with resolution 2252 on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). At press time, it remained unclear when the Council would convene to discuss the Secretary-General’s plan.  Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In January, the Council is planning to hold an open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict. The debate is expected to focus on the Secretary-General’s June 2015 report on the protection of civilians and the recommendations in the June 2015 report of the High-Level Implementation Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO) relevant to the protection of civilians. Although unclear at press time, a presidential statement could be a possible outcome. Read more

• Libya

  In January, Martin Kobler, the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), is likely to brief the Council, followed by consultations.     Read more

• UN Office for West Africa

  In January, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the head of the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA), will brief the Council, followed by consultations. Members will consider the semi-annual UNOWA report. UNOWA’s mandate expires 31 December 2016 and is customarily renewed through an exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the president of the Security Council.        Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In January, the Council will hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, with a focus on the situation in Israel/Palestine. Issues likely to be raised include the absence of a path toward a political solution and continuing incidents of violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the sanctions on the Central African Republic (CAR), which expire on 29 January 2016, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 Sanctions Committee, which expires on 29 February 2016.  Read more

• Cyprus

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months ahead of its 31 January expiry. Lisa Buttenheim, Special Representative and head of mission, is likely to brief on the latest UNFICYP report. Special Adviser Espen Barth Eide is expected to brief on the progress in the negotiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.  Read more

• Somalia

  In January, the Council will consider the Secretary-General’s 120-day report on Somalia. At press time, it was expected that there would be a briefing by the new Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating, who is succeeding Nicholas Kay in January, and possibly also by the new Special Representative for Somalia of the Chairperson of the AU Commission and head of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Caetano José Madeira, who took up his position on 4 December 2015, followed by consultations. A presidential statement on the electoral process was seen as a possibility. Read more