October 2015 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 October 2015
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  • Overview

    Spain will hold the Council’s presidency in October. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Security Council Decision-Making and the Veto

    In the lead-up to the UN’s 70th anniversary on 24 October, three initiatives addressing one of the more challenging issues facing the organisation—how the Security Council can more effectively prevent and halt mass atrocities—have been garnering considerable attention. These include: a French initiative; the Accountability, Coherence, and Transparency Group (ACT) initiative; and a reform proposal by the Elders. Read more

  • Working Methods

    In October, the Security Council will hold an open debate on its working methods. The president of the General Assembly, Mogens Lykketoft, will be invited to speak. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    On 13 October, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain, which has the presidency of the Security Council for the month, will preside over the annual debate on women, peace and security. The Secretary-General, the Executive Director of UN Women and two civil society representatives are expected to brief. A resolution is a possible outcome. Read more

  • Security Council Elections 2015

    On 15 October, the General Assembly is scheduled to elect five states to two-year terms on the Security Council beginning on 1 January 2016. Read more

  • Mali

    In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Mongi Hamdi, followed by consultations. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in September 2015. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In October, the Council will be briefed by Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, will brief on the latest report on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework Agreement. Read more

  • Syria

    In October, Council members will receive their regular monthly briefings on the chemical weapons and humanitarian tracks in Syria. A new element this month is the likely inclusion of updates regarding the UN-OPCW Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM), established to determine responsibility for the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • Haiti

    In October, the Security Council is due to hold its semi-annual debate and adopt a resolution extending MINUSTAH before the current mandate expires on 15 October. Special Representative Sandra Honoré is expected to present the Secretary-General’s 31 August report and brief the Council on recent developments. Read more

  • Somalia

    In October, Under-Secretary-General for Field Support Atul Khare is expected to brief the Council on the strategic review of the UN Support Office for AMISOM (UNSOA).  The report is due 30 September.   The Council is scheduled to adopt a resolution on Somalia-Eritrea sanctions. The authorisation for maritime interdiction of illicit charcoal exports and illegal arms imports expires 24 October; the partial lifting of the arms embargo expires 30 October; and the mandate of the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group expires 30 November.  Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for October Read more

  • Yemen

    In October, Special Envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed and the chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Raimonda Murkmokaitė (Lithuania), are expected to brief the Council, followed by consultations. Read more

  • Israel/Palestine

    In October, the Council will hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, with a focus on the situation in Israel/Palestine. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In October, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 urged the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. In addition to issues related to the implementation of resolution 1559, the discussion is expected to focus on the political situation in Lebanon and the immense impact of the Syrian crisis on the country. Read more

  • Counter-terrorism

    In October, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from Ambassador Gerard van Bohemen (New Zealand) as chair of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In October, the Council will receive a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet is expected to brief. At press time, no outcome was anticipated. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June 2016. Read more

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