May 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  The Republic of Korea (RoK) will preside over the Security Council in May. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in April 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for May

  Notable dates for May. Read more

• In Hindsight: UN Guard Units

  The Secretary-General recommended in 2013 the creation of three guard units—in the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and Somalia—to protect UN political and peacebuilding missions operating in deteriorating security environments. What was once perceived as an exceptional measure taken in 2004 in a particularly difficult context (Iraq) may be becoming a common practice as special political missions are deployed in increasingly volatile settings. These developments, which have not attracted much publicity, nevertheless have led to a number of questions being asked, including whether Department of Political Affairs-led missions are the appropriate tool to tackle such situations, the mandate and expectations for guard units and other institutional issues within the organisation.  Read more

• Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

  In May, at the initiative of the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Council will hold an open debate with a briefing by Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson to commemorate the 10th anniversary of resolution 1540. ROK Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se will chair the meeting. The ROK on 23 April circulated a concept note in preparation for the debate, inviting member states to share ideas and recommendations about how to ensure full and sustained implementation of the resolution.  Read more

• South Sudan

  In May, the Council is likely to receive a briefing in consultations in accordance with resolution 2132, which increased the force levels of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) soon after conflict erupted in South Sudan on 15 December 2013. It is possible that the Council will adopt a resolution reprioritising and revising the UNMISS mandate, drawing on recommendations in the Secretary-General’s 6 March report (S/2014/158).  At press time, an additional briefing was also anticipated on 2 May by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay and the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng on their recent trip to South Sudan. The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 July.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In May, Council members expect to receive their monthly briefing in consultations on Sudan-South Sudan issues. The Council is also likely to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA), which expires on 31 May.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In May, Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide in consultations the quarterly briefing on the work of the Committee. At press time, the Council was negotiating a press statement condemning the recent upsurge in violence in Darfur, although it remained unclear if and when consensus might be reached. The mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the Committee expires on 13 March 2015, while the mandate of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) expires on 31 August. Read more

• Somalia

  In May, the Council is scheduled to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Nicholas Kay, by video teleconference on recent developments and the quarterly report of the Secretary-General. Council members will also hold consultations. An UNSOM mandate review, likely to be in the form of a letter to the Council from the Secretary-General, will further inform the briefing and consultations. The Council will likely adopt a resolution renewing the UNSOM mandate, which expires on 3 June.  Read more

• Burundi

  In May, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB), Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, will brief the Council by video teleconference.  Read more

• UNOCA/LRA

  In May, the Security Council expects a briefing by Abou Moussa, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), on the Secretary-General’s report on UNOCA and the implementation of the regional strategy on the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Either a presidential or a press statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) which expires on 31 May. A briefing and consultations on Guinea-Bissau are planned. Special Representative of the Secretary-General José Ramos-Horta is expected to brief, as is the chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) and its Guinea-Bissau configuration, Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil).  Read more

• Libya

  In May, the Council will receive the semi-annual briefing by ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. Read more

• Syria

  In May, Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission, will brief Council members on the chemical weapons track. Separately, OCHA will brief on humanitarian access and Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi will brief on the political track. Read more

• Lebanon

  In May, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing in consultations from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Discussion is expected to focus on the enormous impact the Syrian crisis is having on the political, security and humanitarian situations in Lebanon. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In May, the Security Council will have its biannual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, will brief the Council, presenting the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). No outcome is expected. Read more

• Kosovo

  The Council will hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo in May. Farid Zarif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), is expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report and latest developments. High-level participation from Kosovo and Serbia is likely, with delegates from a newly elected government representing the latter. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In May, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), is scheduled to brief Council members in consultations on the work of the Committee. Her last 90-day briefing was on 20 February.  Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In May, the Council is scheduled to hold a semi-annual briefing by the chairs of its counter-terrorism-related committees, possibly followed by a debate. The briefers will be Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia), chair of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) and Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic of Korea), chair of the 1540 Committee, concerning the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Read more