December 2012 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Morocco will hold the presidency of the Security Council in December. A high-level meeting on peace and security in the Sahel is planned. The situation in Mali and the Secretary-General’s report regarding the deployment of an international stabilisation force there will also be a focus this month. Syria and the DRC may also continue to occupy the Council's time in December. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for December 2012 Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this status update of Security Council activity in November 2012. Read more

• Threats to Peace and Security in the Sahel

  In December, the Council is expected to hold a high-level meeting on the Sahel, a sprawling territory covering parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Algeria, Niger, Chad, Sudan and Eritrea. The focus will be on security, humanitarian, governance and development concerns in the region, perennial problems brought into sharp relief by an unexpected military coup in Mali on 22 March and an upsurge in the activities of terrorist groups in the region. Read more

• Mali

  The Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General’s report providing recommendations regarding the deployment of an international military force in Mali, including means and modalities of the envisaged deployment, in line with resolution 2071. The Secretary-General is likely to brief the Council, and representatives from the AU and ECOWAS are expected to make statements. Read more

• Liberia

  In December, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee on the final report of the Panel of Experts (PoE) monitoring the implementation of the sanctions. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In December, Jeffrey Feltman, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, will likely brief the Council in consultations on the quarterly report on efforts to restore constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau following the 12 April coup. The briefing will likely be followed by a briefing by Morocco on the work of the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  In December, the Council is scheduled to receive the biannual briefing from the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the referral of the situation in Darfur to the Court pursuant to resolution 1593. (Fatou Bensouda succeeded Luis Moreno Ocampo in June, and this will be her first Council briefing on Darfur as ICC Prosecutor.) Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  The Council will likely meet twice in December to discuss Sudan and South Sudan issues in accordance with resolution 2046. In the context of these meetings, it is expected to discuss the status of negotiations among Sudan, South Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and potential options for resolving the remaining issues separating these parties. A report from the Secretary-General on these matters was released on 26 November (S/2012/877). At press time, it was unclear whether there would be an outcome to the Council’s deliberations on Sudan and South Sudan in December. Read more

• UNOCA/LRA

  In December, the Security Council will likely hear a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and on the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) by Abou Moussa, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOCA. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In December the Council is expected to renew the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) for a period of six months.The Department of Peacekeeping Operations is expected to brief the Council in consultations on the Secretary-General’s UNDOF report, also due in December. Read more

• Iraq

  In December, the Council is expected to consider the 34th report of the Secretary-General on Iraq-Kuwait issues pursuant to paragraph 14 of resolution 1284 (1999), and to receive a briefing in consultations from Gennady Tarasov, the High-Level Coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait Missing Persons and Property. Read more

• Iran

  The Council is scheduled to be briefed in December by the outgoing chair of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), on the Committee’s work over the last three months. Read more

• Afghanistan

  The Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly debate on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in December. Jan Kubiš, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In December, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the Ombudsperson and the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team assisting the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee. Read more

• Timor-Leste

  The mandate of the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste concludes at the end of December. At press time, it seemed the Council might adopt a presidential statement or resolution marking the end of the mission and perhaps formally deciding to remove Timor-Leste from its agenda. Read more

• Peacekeeping and Inter-Mission Cooperation

  At the initiative of Morocco, the Council is expected to hold a meeting in December on inter-mission cooperation among UN peacekeeping operations. The Under-Secretaries-General for Peacekeeping Operations and Field Support, Hervé Ladsous and Ameerah Haq, are scheduled to brief. It is possible that the Council will adopt a presidential statement. Read more

• Peacebuilding

  The Council expects to hold an open debate on peacebuilding in the aftermath of conflict. The Secretary-General’s 8 October report (S/2012/746) will likely serve as a basis for the discussion. Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In December, the Council will hold a debate on the ad hoc international criminal tribunals. The Presidents and Prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) are expected to brief the Council. Read more

• Security Council Subsidiary Bodies

  The chairpersons of the subsidiary bodies whose countries will be finishing their term on the Council, are expected to brief the Council in December. Read more