January 2007 Monthly Forecast

• Southern Sudan

  The quarterly Secretary-General's report on Sudan is due in January. Council action is not needed on the mandate of the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) since it expires on 30 April 2007. However, discussion of growing tensions and the linkages with the widening regional conflict is possible. Read more

• Overview

  Russia will have the Presidency of the Council in January. No thematic debate is expected. It is unclear whether there will be any major public debate. One possibility is the monthly session on the Middle East. It will be an... Read more

• Georgia

  The Council is expected to receive the Secretary-General's quarterly report on the UN Observer Mission in Georgia and a briefing from the Secretary-General's Special Representative, Jean Arnault. Discussion is expected on the Kodori Valley and ways of restarting dialogue between Georgia and the Abkhazia. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  The Secretary-General's report on the future of the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC) is expected in January. Some discussion is possible, but decisions are more probable in February since MONUC's mandate expires on 15 February. Read more

• Somalia

  The Secretary-General's report under resolution 1725 is due on 6 January. It will be the first on a major crisis situation by the new Secretary-General and it will be an interesting test of his approach, particularly since the Council in December rejected the advice of his predecessor and his special representative and went ahead with approval for an Intergovernmental Authority on Development military mission in Somalia in resolution 1725. Read more

• Haiti

  The Secretary-General's report on the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) will be available in January. However, no formal Council action is expected since MINUSTAH's mandate does not expire until 15 February 2007. Informal discussions in January are likely, particularly among the Group of Friends of Haiti. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)/Chad/CAR

  In January, Council members will be looking for concrete evidence that Khartoum is following through on its signals that a new Council statement (adopted on 19 December) would unlock consent for the proposed hybrid AU-UN operation in Darfur. Agreement on key aspects, such as mandate and size, were still pending at press time. Read more

• Peacebuilding Commission

  The Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) was established by the Security Council and the General Assembly in December 2005. Controversy surrounding its establishment led to ambiguity about its status. It is not clearly specified whether it is a subsidiary body of the General Assembly or the Security Council. (The resolutions simply refer to it as an "intergovernmental advisory body".) Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending for the Council are: Two requests from the 2005 World Summit related to the Council’s work have seen little or no recent progress. Reforms to the Military Staff Committee have yet to be addressed.  Council members established... Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandates of the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) and the French Licorne forces until 31 October 2007. Both mandates expire on 10 January. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General's report on options for changes to the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). Given the lack of progress towards demarcation of boundaries, the Council seems likely to decide to reconfigure and further downsize UNMEE prior to the expiration of the mandate on 31 January. Read more

• North Korea

  No Council action is expected, provided that the six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear programme are sustained. However, the Sanctions Committee will report on implementation of resolution 1718. Read more

• Nepal

  The Council is expected to consider the report of the technical assessment mission to Nepal and to discuss the mandate for a UN mission in mid-January. A decision approving the mandate of the mission is likely. Read more

• Lebanon

  The Council will follow closely political developments in Lebanon. No action is expected unless the situation deteriorates. The Council is awaiting the Secretary-General's recommendations on the delineation of the Lebanese border in the Sheb'a Farms area and the wider situation in Lebanon pursuant to resolution 1701. The Secretary-General appointed a senior cartographer to determine the territorial definition of the Sheb'a Farms. Read more

• Targeted Sanctions: Listing/De-Listing and Due Process

  On 19 December the Council established in resolution 1730 "a focal point" within the UN Secretariat to process submissions for de-listing under resolution 1267 (Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions) and other sanctions resolutions. The Council also directed other sanctions committees to revise their guidelines for listing and de-listing. This action followed unheralded but important changes to the listing process which were promulgated on 29 November. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in December 2006. Read more