Lebanon
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Council members are likely to follow closely the Lebanese presidential elections, due to take place on 25 September. But in terms of scheduled Council activity the only focus in September will be the special tribunal to try those suspected in the Hariri murder and other linked assassinations. A progress report from the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1757 (establishing the tribunal under Chapter VII of the UN Charter) is expected by 5 September.
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The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires on 31 August. The Council will receive recommendations from the Secretary-General in early August and an extension of the mandate for 12 months is likely.
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Lebanon seems likely to produce even greater challenges in July amid conflict between the Lebanese army and Palestinian militants, reports of widespread rearming of Lebanese militias and increasing security challenges to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The Council seems ready to maintain momentum on resolution 1701.
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In June, recommendations from the Secretary-General on improved monitoring of the Syria-Lebanon border and a report on implementation of resolution 1701 are expected to be discussed. In addition, the issue of Sheb'a Farms is likely to be high on the agenda. Recommendations are expected in the 1701 report, together with a geographical definition of the area.
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The fifth semi-annual report on the implementation of resolution 1559, due 19 April, was postponed because the Secretary-General's Personal Envoy Terje Røed-Larsen was in Syria with the Secretary-General. Consultations previously scheduled for 30 April were delayed. These are likely to take place in early May. A presidential statement is likely.
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The Council is expected to take up Lebanon twice during April. Consultations on the Secretary-General's report on the implementation of resolution 1701were postponed from March to early April, so as to hear the Secretary-General's account of his visit to the region. For further details visit our March Forecast. In the second half of April, the Council is expecting the Secretary-General's report on implementation of resolution 1559.
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On 12 March the Council is due to receive the quarterly report on resolution 1701, which brought about the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Recommendations on the status of the Sheb'a Farms are also expected. A presidential statement is possible.
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The Council will follow closely political developments in Lebanon. No action is expected unless the situation deteriorates. The Council is awaiting the Secretary-General's recommendations on the delineation of the Lebanese border in the Sheb'a Farms area and the wider situation in Lebanon pursuant to resolution 1701. The Secretary-General appointed a senior cartographer to determine the territorial definition of the Sheb'a Farms.
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On Monday 11 December the Council will hold consultations on the practical implementation of resolution 1701 (2006) (and in particular, on the operations of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon) in response to a factual report submitted by the Secretary-General by letter on 1 December. The Council is expected to adopt a presidential statement.
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In December the Council is expected to intensify its focus on the fragile situation in Lebanon. The report of the International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will be of heightened interest given the assassination of Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel on 21 November.
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A report on the developments in the area under control of the UN Interim Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is expected. Whether this report will also contain political elements related to the implementation of resolution 1701 remains to be seen. Council action is unlikely.
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Lebanon is likely to take a considerable amount of the Council's time and attention in October. Members will be following developments related to the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and authorised a reinforcement of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.
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The adoption of resolution 1701 on 11 August 2006 was a critical step in ending the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel after 33 days of intense combat, which left over a thousand people dead (1,187 people in Lebanon and 160 in Israel) and displaced approximately one million Lebanese and 300,000 Israelis. But the Security Council, in this resolution, did much more than just achieve a ceasefire. The establishment of a robust UN peacekeeping force, the focus on principles and elements for a "permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution" and wide authority for the Secretary-General to take the lead in peacemaking efforts are all major innovations in the Council's approach to the region. The Security Council is engaged much more proactively than ever before in the Middle East, and its ongoing involvement is seen as a message for a permanent peace. Resolution 1701 is therefore a very important window of opportunity for the region and for the UN. A key question, however, is whether this will be sustained.
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The Security Council will take up the Secretary-General's proposals, requested in resolution 1701, for implementing the Taif Accords and resolutions 1559 and 1680 concerning the disbanding and disarmament of militias in Lebanon, as well as on the delineation of the Lebanese border, in particular the Sheb'a Farms area.
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At press time, the Council is considering a one-month technical rollover of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in order to provide some time either to reconfigure UNIFIL or replace it with a stronger force.
