June 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Russia will hold the presidency of the Council in June. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in May 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for June

  Notable Dates for June Read more

• In Hindsight: The Council and the ICC

  The Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal Court (ICC) gives the Security Council a unique jurisdictional role. Article 13(b) of the Statute grants the Council the power, acting under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, to refer situations in which certain crimes may have been committed to the ICC. Article 16 of the Statute, on the other hand, allows the Council to defer a situation for one year through a Chapter VII resolution, for reasons relating to the maintenance of international peace and security. Read more

• Peacekeeping

  In June, the Council is expected to hold an open debate on new trends in peacekeeping, such as the establishment of more robust mandates, the use of new technology, inter-mission cooperation and multidimensional mandates. At press time it was not decided who would brief from the Secretariat. Read more

• Syria

  Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission, will brief Council members on the the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. This will be a sensitive briefing given the Secretary-General has reported that the 30 June final deadline for complete removal and destruction of the arsenal will not be met. Later in the month, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos will brief Council members on humanitarian access.  Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  The Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), established in 1974 to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. The mandate expires on 30 June. Read more

• Yemen

  In June, Council members expect a briefing in consultations on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen. Read more

• Iran

  In June, the Council is due to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee. Later in the month the chair of the Committee, Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia), is scheduled to present his quarterly briefing on the Committee’s work.   Read more

• Afghanistan

  In June, the Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly debate on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNAMA Ján Kubiš is expected to brief. Council members are also expected to review the implementation of resolution 2082 of 17 December 2012, which modified the Taliban sanctions regime to allow for a number of exemptions to facilitate travel by listed individuals to participate in Afghanistan’s reconciliation process. The Council is planning to adopt a resolution calling for minor adjustments to the functioning of the sanctions regime. UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2015.   Read more

• South Sudan

  In June, the Council is expected to receive a briefing, likely in consultations, on the situation in South Sudan, in accordance with resolution 2132, which increased the military and police capacity of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to address the outbreak of violence following the 15 December 2013 crisis within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). It is possible that the Council may hold other meetings on South Sudan during the month, depending on how events unfold on the ground. The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 November. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In June, in accordance with resolution 1593, the Council is scheduled to hear the semi-annual briefing by Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda on the work of the ICC in Darfur. No outcome is expected from the meeting.   Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In June, the Council is scheduled to hold its monthly meeting on Sudan-South Sudan issues, likely in consultations. The Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan and head of the UN Office to the AU, Haile Menkerios, is expected to brief. At press time, no outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In June, the Council may be briefed on the preliminary report of the Commission of Inquiry established by the Council in resolution 2127 to investigate reports of violations of international humanitarian law, international human rights law and abuses of human rights in the Central African Republic. Read more

• Peace and Security in Africa (Sahel)

  In June, the Council will be briefed by the new Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Sahel, Hiroute Guebre Sellassie. Council members will consider the Secretary-General’s report on progress in implementing the UN integrated Sahel strategy, to be released in early June. The Council may adopt a presidential statement. Read more

• Mali

  In June, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Council also expects to receive a briefing followed by consultations from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINUSMA, Albert Gerard Koenders. Read more

• Libya

  In June, the Security Council expects a briefing, followed by consultations, from Tarek Mitri, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The Council will also receive the periodic briefing by the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda), and hold consultations on the Libya sanctions. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In June, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire before it expires on 30 June. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Côte d’Ivoire, Aïchatou Mindaoudou Souleymane, is also expected to brief the Council on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s report.The current mandate of the French forces in the country also expires on 30 June. Read more

• Liberia

  In June, the Council will review the Liberia sanctions regime as renewed by resolution 2128 of 10 December 2013. The resolution called for a review six months after its adoption, “with a view to modifying or lifting all or parts” of the sanctions. The chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Zeid Ra’ad Zeid Al-Hussein (Jordan), is due to brief the Council in consultations. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Annual Meeting with AU PSC Members

  Expected Council Action In June, Council members are scheduled to hold the eighth annual consultative meeting with members of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC). Following the meeting, which will be held in New York this year, a joint... Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In June, the Council is likely to adopt a resolution reviewing and possibly modifying the measures imposed in resolution 2083 on individuals and entities associated with Al-Qaida.  Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In June, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on the ad hoc international criminal tribunals. The presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) are expected to brief the Council.  Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In June, Miroslav Jenča, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), is expected to brief Council members in consultations. A press statement is likely. Read more