October 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2011
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THE SECURITY COUNCIL

Security Council Elections 2011

Expected Action
On 21 October, the General Assembly is expected to hold elections for five members of the Security Council. The new members will take up their seats on 1 January 2012 and will serve on the Security Council until 31 December 2013.

(Please see our Special Research Report on UN Security Council Elections 2011 of 21 September for more detailed background information.)

Background
The five seats available for election in 2011 will be distributed regionally as follows:

  • two seats for the Africa Group (currently held by Gabon and Nigeria);
  • one seat for the Asia-Pacific Group (currently held by Lebanon);
  • one seat for Eastern Europe (currently held by Bosnia and Herzegovina); and
  • one seat for the Group of Latin American and Caribbean States (GRULAC, currently held by Brazil).

At press time, only Guatemala will apparently enjoy a “clean slate” election. Although a founding member of the UN, it has never been a Council member.

In contrast, it appears that the three other races will be contested.

Africa has three candidates for two available seats:

  • Mauritania (admitted to the UN on 27 October 1961) has served one term on the Council (1974-1975);
  • Morocco (admitted to the UN on 12 November 1956) has served two terms on the Council (1963-1964, 1992-1993); and
  • Togo (admitted to the UN on 20 September 1960) has served one term on the Council (1982-1983).

One of the two available Africa seats is designated as the “Arab swing seat” with Mauritania and Morocco in principle competing against each other for this seat.)

Asia-Pacific has two candidates for one available seat:

  • Kyrgyzstan (admitted to the UN on 2 March 1992, having been a part of the Soviet Union until its breakup in 1991), has never served on the Council; and  
  • Pakistan (admitted to the UN on 30 September 1947), has served six terms on the Council (1952-1953, 1968-1969, 1976-1977, 1983-1984, 1993-1994, 2003-2004).

Eastern Europe has three candidates for one available seat:

  • Azerbaijan (admitted to the UN on 2 March 1992, having been a part of the Soviet Union until its breakup in 1991), which has never served on the Council; 
  • Hungary (admitted to the UN on 14 December 1955), which has served two terms on the Council (1968-1969,1992-1993); and
  • Slovenia (admitted to the UN on 22 May 1992), which has served on the Council once (1998-1999) and was previously represented four times as part of Yugoslavia (1950-1951, 1956, 1972-1973, 1988-1989).

The table below indicates the number of available seats by region, the declared candidates and their previous experience on the Council.

Region

Available Seats in the 2011 Election

States Running

Previous Terms on the Council

Africa

2

Mauritania

 

 

Morocco

 

 

Togo

One term

(1974-1975)

 

Two terms

(1963-1964, 1992-1993)

 

One term

(1982-1983)

 

Asia-Pacific

1

Kyrgyzstan

 

Pakistan

No prior Council service

 

Six terms

(1952-1953, 1968-1969, 1976-1977, 1983-1984, 1993-1994, 2003-2004)

 

Eastern Europe

1

Azerbaijan

 

Hungary

 

 

Slovenia

No prior Council service

 

Two terms

(1968-1969, 1992-1993)

 

One term

(1998-1999)

 

Latin American and Caribbean

1

Guatemala

No prior Council service

Full Forecast

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