October 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2011
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Iran: On 7 September, the chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), briefed the Council (S/PV.6607) that the Committee had received additional information from a member state on a previously reported incident of an alleged export of arms, in violation of resolution 1747 (2007). The Committee also received a joint communication from four member states reporting a violation of resolution 1929 (2010) which bans any activity related to ballistic missiles. Following the briefing, all Council members expressed support for the work of the Committee. France, Gabon, Germany, Portugal, the UK and the US called for the most recent report of the Committee’s panel of experts to be published as soon as possible. China and Russia stressed that the work of the panel should be objective and impartial.

Terrorism: On 9 September, the members of the Council marked the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, recalling that nearly 3,000 people from over 90 countries were killed. Council members reiterated their condemnation of the attacks and noted that in the aftermath states had joined together in a spirit of cooperation to combat terrorism and that such cooperation should be further strengthened. They stressed that terrorism can only be defeated by a comprehensive approach involving states, international and regional organizations and civil society to address the threat and conditions conducive to the spread of terrorism. On 7 September, Council members condemned the terrorist attack that killed numerous people that day in Delhi, India (SC/10377). On 21 September the members of the Council condemned the terrorist attack that killed multiple people the day before in Kabul, Afghanistan, including the Chairman of the Afghanistan High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani (SC/10391). Council members reiterated their commitment to support the government of Afghanistan and the peace and reconciliation process.

Sierra Leone: On 14 September, the Council renewed the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL) for a period of 12 months (S/RES/2005). On 12 September, Council members were briefed by Michael von der Schulenburg, the Executive Representative for the Secretary General, on political and other developments in Sierra Leone (S/PV.6609). This was followed by Council discussions, in which Council members were briefed by Joseph B. Dauda, the Foreign Minister of Sierra Leone.

Tribunals: On 14 September, the Council decided in resolution 2006 to reappoint Hassan Bubacar Jallow as prosecutor of the ICTR for a new term with effect from 15 September 2011 until 31 December 2014 and in resolution 2007 to reappoint Serge Brammertz as prosecutor of the ICTY for a new term with effect from 1 January 2012 until 31 December 2014 (S/PV.6612 and S/PV.6613). These decisions followed separate letters from the Secretary-General to the Council on their reappointment (S/2011/561 for Jallow and S/2011/566 for Brammertz) in which he had requested that both be reappointed for a new four-year term in accordance with the Tribunals’ statutes. 

Liberia: On 16 September, the Council passed a resolution renewing the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) for 12 months (S/RES/2008). This followed unexpectedly prolonged Council discussions. On 13 September, the Council was briefed by Special Representative Ellen Margrethe Løj on the latest developments in Liberia. This was followed by Council consultations discussing a draft resolution, circulated the previous week, renewing UNMIL’s mandate. The draft was put in blue on 14 September to be adopted on 15 September, but a few Council members broke silence that evening. The resolution was only adopted the following day, 16 September. In the course of the discussions, the Secretary-General submitted a letter to Council President on 15 September (and circulated among Council members) on the inter-mission cooperation with the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (S/2011/577) (15 September 2011). The letter discussed the use of three military helicopters and the transfer of 150 military and 100 police personnel from UNOCI to UNMIL from 1 October to 30 November 2011.

Preventive Diplomacy: On 22 September, the Council held a high-level meeting (S/PV.6621) on preventive diplomacy in which it considered the Secretary-General’s report “Preventive Diplomacy: Delivering Results” (S/2011/552).   Lebanon circulated a concept paper “Strengthening and Consolidating Preventive Diplomacy” (S/2011/570) in advance of the meeting, which included the participation of six Heads of State and other high-level officials. The Secretary-General briefed the Council as well. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2011/18) at the meeting in which it, inter-alia, reaffirmed the responsibility of states to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity; reaffirmed that UN conflict prevention activities should “support and complement, as appropriate, the conflict prevention roles of national governments”; expressed its intention to strengthen its partnerships with regional UN offices; emphasised the role of civil society in preventive diplomacy; and reiterated the need to strengthen cooperation with regional and subregional organisations with respect to conflict prevention.  

Yemen: On 24 September, the Council issued a press statement (SC/10394) on Yemen subsequent to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s return to the country from Saudi Arabia.  The Council expressed grave concern at the deteriorating situation and called on all sides to reject violence and practice restraint. The Council called on all parties to move forward with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative for political transition and looked forward to an update from Special Adviser Jamal Benomar upon his return to New York from Sana’a. (On 15 September, during the monthly briefing on emerging issues, the Council heard from DPA head B. Lynn Pascoe on GCC efforts and the presidential decree signed by Saleh empowering Vice President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi to negotiate “a transfer mechanism” with the opposition.)

Kosovo: The Council met on three occasions to address a border dispute in northern Kosovo in September. On 14 September Council members held consultations after Serbia and Russia sent letters (S/2011/574 and S/2011/575) requesting that the Council meet in order to address a potential threat to peace and security along the disputed border. (A NATO mandate to control the contested border crossings until 15 September was set to expire.) During these consultations, Council members agreed to meet to receive a briefing on developments on the ground from DPKO and to hold a closed meeting with both Kosovo and Serbia present the following day, 15 September. Council members met again on 28 September in closed consultations at Russia’s request to receive a briefing from DPKO following violent clashes between Kosovo Serbs and NATO forces along the disputed border.

Full Forecast