July 2022 Monthly Forecast

• Overview 

  In July, Brazil will hold the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and Unconstitutional Changes of Government in Africa

  There has been a string of military takeovers in Africa in the last two years. Since August 2020, power has changed hands unconstitutionally six times in five countries: Burkina Faso (January 2022), Sudan (October 2021), Guinea (September 2021), Chad (April 2021), and Mali (August 2020 and May 2021). Two other African countries saw thwarted coup attempts in this period, Niger in March 2021 and Guinea-Bissau in January 2022, the latter of which led to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deploying a force to the country. Read more

• Status Update since our June Forecast

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In July, the Security Council will hold a high-level debate on strategic communications in peacekeeping. Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Alberto Franco França is expected to chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver remarks. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; Force Commander for the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) General Marcos De Sá Affonso Da Costa; and Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations at the International Peace Institute (IPI), are the anticipated briefers.  Read more

• Ukraine

  In July, the Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting on the situation in Ukraine. The meeting will focus on the ongoing efforts to negotiate an agreement to allow the safe and secure export of Ukrainian food through the Black Sea and unimpeded access of Russian food and fertilisers to global markets. Additional meetings on Ukraine are possible, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Syria

  In July, the Security Council is expected to hold meetings on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks in Syria. The Council is also expected to vote on renewing resolution 2585, which expires on 10 July, and provides the authorisation for cross-border humanitarian deliveries through the Bab al-Hawa crossing on the Syrian-Turkish border. The resolution also encourages efforts to improve cross-line deliveries of humanitarian assistance (that is, across domestic frontlines from Syrian government-held areas into areas outside government control) and welcomes early recovery projects in Syria Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In July, the Security Council will hold its biannual briefing on West Africa and the Sahel. The Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Mahamat Saleh Annadif, is expected to brief. Also expected to brief is the chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) Ambassador Rabab Fatima (Bangladesh), who will be leaving this role later in the month to be UN High Representative for Least Developed, Landlocked Countries, and Small Island Developing States. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  In July, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. Read more

• Yemen

  In July, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg, the head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), General Michael Beary and a representative of OCHA are expected to brief. The Council is expected to renew the mandate of UNMHA, which expires on 15 July. Read more

• Haiti

  In July, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) ahead of its 15 July expiry. Read more

• Colombia

  In July, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, dated 27 June. Francisco de Roux, the head of Colombia’s Truth Commission, and a civil society representative are also expected to brief at the meeting, which will have a transitional justice-related focus. The verification mission’s mandate expires on 31 October. Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart is expected to brief. The Council is expected to renew UNFICYP’s mandate ahead of its 31 July expiry. Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict  

  In July, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on children and armed conflict. Brazilian Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Fernando Simas Magalhães is expected to chair the meeting. Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba is expected to present the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict, which is due in early July. Other speakers are likely to include Executive Director of UNICEF Catherine Russell and a civil society briefer. Read more

• Libya

  Expected Council Action In July, the Council is expected to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in Libya. The Council is expected to vote on a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya... Read more

• Lebanon

  On 21 July, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a group Hezbollah and Israel. Briefings are expected from Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In July, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor, Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, on the ICC’s Darfur-related activities. Read more

• Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

  In July, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the annual report of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). Ambassador Osama Abdelkhalek (Egypt), who served as PBC chair last year, is expected to present the PBC’s annual report on its fifteenth session from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2021. The incoming ambassador of Bangladesh, who is replacing Ambassador Rabab Fatima (Bangladesh) as the current PBC chair, will also brief, focusing on the Commission’s work programme for 2022. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In July, the Council is expected to extend the sanctions measures imposed on the Central African Republic (CAR), which expire at the end of the month, and renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee, which expires on 31 August.  Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In July, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the Security Council on UNRCCA’s work in closed consultations. Read more