March 2020 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  In March, China has the presidency. It will have three signature events. The first is a debate on countering terrorism and extremism in Africa. Potential briefers are Secretary-General António Guterres and Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat.... Read more

• In Hindsight: The Evolving Role of the Three African Members in the Security Council’s Work on Africa

  Among the Security Council’s ten elected members, the three African states—currently Niger, South Africa and Tunisia—constitute a group with some unique features that translate into how these countries work within the Council. They come from the continent whose conflicts have occupied between half to three-quarters of the Council’s time during each of the past 25 years, and that hosts most of the Council’s mandated peace operations. The three states from the continent have also (with the exception of Morocco until 2017) all been members of the same regional organisation, the African Union (AU), and prior to that, its predecessor, the Organization of African Unity (OAU). Read more

• Status Update since our February Forecast

  Status Update since our February Forecast Read more

• South Sudan

  In March, the Council is due to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) before its 15 March expiration. Prior to this, the Council expects a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report. Read more

• Iraq

  In March, the Council expects to receive a briefing by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in the situation in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports—on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives.   UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2020. The mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) expires on 21 September 2020. Read more

• Syria

  In March, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

• Libya

  In March, the Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany.   UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September 2020, measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May 2021. Read more

• Counter-terrorism

  In March, China, the Council’s president, is planning a debate on countering terrorism and extremism in Africa under the agenda item of “peace and security in Africa” to discuss the need for comprehensive multidimensional approaches in combating terrorism and violent extremism in Africa. Possible briefers may be Secretary-General António Guterres and the Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat (the latter most likely via video teleconference). Interested African member states are likely to participate in the debate. Read more

• Yemen

  Expected Council Action In March, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths and a representative of OCHA. General Abhijit Guha, the head of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement... Read more

• Lebanon (1701)

  In March, the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Briefings are expected from Ján Kubiš, Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and possibly from a representative of the Department of Peace Operations. Read more

• Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

  In March, the chair of the 1540 Committee, Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indonesia) is scheduled to brief the Council on the work of the committee, which deals with the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In March, the Security Council is expected to make a decision regarding the drawdown and exit of the UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID).  The Council is likely to adopt a resolution establishing a follow-on presence to UNAMID by 31 March, in accordance with resolution 2495. Prior to this, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the special report of the Secretary-General and the Chairperson of the AU Commission, also mandated by resolution 2495, followed by consultations. The chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), will provide the quarterly briefing on the committee’s work. Read more

• Open Debate on Multilateralism and the Political Settlement of Disputes

  In March, Council president China will convene an open debate titled “Upholding Multilateralism and Promoting the Political Settlement of Disputes”, under the agenda item “Maintenance of International Peace and Security”. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief at the debate. Representatives from the office of the President of the General Assembly and the International Court of Justice may also brief. At press time, no outcome was anticipated.  Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In March, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The MONUSCO mandate expires on 20 December. The 1533 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) sanctions regime expires on 1 July. Read more

• Peacekeeping

  As one of the signature events of its presidency, China is organising a debate on “UN peacekeeping operations: Better capacity building, more safety and security”. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Under-Secretary-General for Operational Support Atul Khare are expected to brief. A product, such as a resolution or presidential statement, is anticipated. Read more

• Somalia

  In March, the Security Council is due to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which expires on 31 March. The authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 31 May and the Security Council’s Somalia sanctions regime expires on 15 November.  Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In March, the Council is expected to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions committee. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In March, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due out in March, and on the most recent developments. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In March, the Security Council will hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. A senior secretariat representative is expected to brief on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), due in March. A civil society representative may also brief the Council. Read more