February 2020 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 January 2020
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  • Overview

    Belgium has the February presidency of the Security Council. It has decided to hold an open debate on transitional justice, and will also hold a high-level briefing on “Integrating child protection into peace processes to resolve conflict and sustain peace”.... Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Security Council in 2019

    In 2019, geopolitical tensions continued to be reflected in Council action. Difficult and protracted negotiations were the norm, with pushback on previously agreed language from past resolutions. Read more

  • Status Update since our January Forecast

    Status Update since our January Forecast Read more

  • Libya

    Expected Council Action In February, the Council is expected to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and renew the measures related to the illicit export of crude oil from Libya ahead of their expiry on 15 February 2020. The mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) expires on 15 September 2020. Read more

  • Small Arms

    In February, the Council will hold a briefing to consider the Secretary-General’s sixth biennial report on small arms, submitted in accordance with the presidential statement adopted on 29 June 2007, which requested a biennial report to the Council, beginning in 2008. Read more

  • OSCE Briefing

    In February, Albanian Prime Minister and Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Edi Rama, the current Chairperson-in-Office for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), is expected to provide a briefing to the Security Council on the activities of the organisation. Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism

    In February, Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (OCT), and Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), are expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s tenth strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). In the past, Council members received these reports every four months; however, several Council members felt that was excessive, and so the report has been submitted biannually since the adoption of resolution 2368 in July 2017. Read more

  • Children and Armed Conflict

    As Council president in February and the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, Belgium is planning a high-level briefing on “Integrating child protection into peace processes to resolve conflict and sustain peace”, to be presided over by the country’s Foreign Minister, Philippe Goffin. Belgian King Philippe and Queen Mathilde are expected to be in attendance, and King Philippe will most likely make a statement. The anticipated briefers are Secretary-General António Guterres, AU Peace and Security Commissioner Smaïl Chergui and Jo Becker, chair of the advisory board of the NGO network Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict. On the same day as the briefing, there will be a related high-level event to launch the practical guidance for mediators to protect children in situations of armed conflict. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

  • Transitional Justice

    In February, the Council is expected to hold an open debate on transitional justice at the initiative of Belgium. The open debate will be held under the broader agenda item “peacebuilding and sustaining peace” and a concept note will be circulated ahead of the meeting. Belgium’s Foreign Minister, Philippe Goffin, is expected to preside. At press time, no outcome was anticipated.  Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    In February, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), which expires on 28 February. Before this, the Council is expected to hear a briefing by Special Representative and head of UNIOGBIS Rosine Sori-Coulibaly. Read more

  • Yemen

    In February, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing Yemen financial and travel ban sanctions, which expire on 26 February, and the mandate of the Yemen Panel of Experts, which expires on 26 March. (The targeted arms embargo established by resolution 2216 from April 2015 is open-ended). The Council is also expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen in consultations with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths, a representative of OCHA, and General Abhijit Guha, the head of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). Resolution 2505, adopted on 13 January, renewed UNMHA’s mandate until 15 July 2020. Read more

  • Syria

    In February, the Council expects to receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons. Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In February, the Council will meet to discuss the latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which is due by 15 February. Read more

  • Haiti

    In February, the Security Council is expected to hold its first meeting on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), a special political mission (SPM) established after the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) closed on 15 October 2019. Special Representative Helen La Lime is expected to brief, and a civil society briefer may also participate. Read more

  • EU-UN Briefing

    In February, the Council will hold its annual meeting on strengthening the partnership with the EU under its agenda item on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations in maintaining international peace and security. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, will brief the Council.  Read more

  • Burundi

    Expected Council Action In February, a representative from the Secretariat is expected to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi. Read more

  • Somalia

    In February, the Security Council will have a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the situation in Somalia. It will also receive a briefing in consultations from Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve (Belgium), chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, on his recent visit to the region. The mandate of UNSOM expires on 31 March and the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 31 May. The Security Council Somalia sanctions regime expires on 15 November 2020.  Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In February, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the 90-day report about the committee’s work. Read more

  • Lead Roles within the Council in 2020: Penholders and Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies

    The tables below reflect the Security Council penholders and chairs of subsidiary bodies as of January 2020. The tables do not cover all the agenda items of which the Council is currently seized but focus on items with regular outcomes or those for which a subsidiary body has been established. For the full names of agenda items, please refer to the summary statement by the Secretary-General of matters of which the Security Council is seized (S/2020/10) issued on 2 January. The list of chairs of subsidiary bodies is contained in a note by the Council president (S/2020/2), also of 2 January. Read more

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