June 2011 Monthly Forecast


Central African Republic

Expected Council Action
The Council is expecting to receive the semi-annual report on BINUCA in June. At press it was unclear whether they would consider the Secretary-General’s report on CAR in June. It seemed possible that it might be deferred to July.

BINUCA’s mandate expires on 31 December.

Key Recent Developments
The security situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) remains fragile. Banditry, extreme poverty and lack of capacity by defense and security forces and the judiciary continue to impede peace consolidation.

On 31 December 2010 the UN Mission in CAR and Chad (MINURCAT) completed its withdrawal and the handover of its programmes to the governments of Chad and CAR and UN agencies. This has left a security vacuum in northeastern CAR, which has yet to be filled with any sufficient security arrangement.

The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), the Ugandan rebel group, continues to perpetrate attacks in CAR. On 13 March the LRA attacked a village in the central mining area of Nzako, killing at least six people, including four CAR soldiers, and abducting between 30 and 50 others. On 18 January the LRA attacked two villages, Agoumar and Madabazouma, in southern CAR, abducting 12 civilians, mostly women.

The Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP), a CAR rebel group, announced a ceasefire on 28 April to enable the opening of negotiations with the government of CAR. CPJP draws most of its support from northeastern and southern CAR and has been behind several anti-government attacks, including election-related violence in February and an attack in the northeastern city of Birao in November 2010, in which six people were killed and several soldiers were captured. 

On 23 January, Francois Bozize was re-elected as president of CAR after receiving 66 percent of the vote. The results were widely contested, and the outcome was immediately rejected by three of the five candidates, who called the balloting a “masquerade.” Following calls for redressing electoral irregularities, three electoral commission officials were arrested on 11 February as part of a fraud investigation. Also on 11 February, amid election-related tensions, CAR soldiers clashed with CPJP rebels in eastern CAR, killing seven rebels.

On 19 May, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced the appointment of Margaret Vogt of Nigeria as his special representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic (BINUCA), replacing the outgoing special representative, Sahle-Work Zewde.

On 2 March the UN opened a new political office designed to support Central African nations in their efforts to consolidate peace, prevent conflict and tackle cross-border arms trafficking and organised crime. The UN Regional Office in Central Africa (UNOCA) located in Libreville, Gabon, has an initial mandate of two years and will work closely with the Economic Community of Central African States, composed of Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, CAR, Chad, Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Sao Tome and Principe. UNOCA will give high priority to early warning and early political action as tools for conflict prevention.

On 8 December 2010, Zewde briefed the Council, as did the chair of the CAR configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Belgian Ambassador Jan Grauls. Grauls said that the integrated strategic framework developed by BINUCA had incorporated the priorities identified by the PBC, which would help further strengthen the cohesion between the PBC, BINUCA and the government. On 14 December, the Council extended the mandate of BINUCA for another 12 months.

Developments in the Peacebuilding Commission
The Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) will host a donor’s roundtable on 16-17 June in Brussels. The event, which the PBC is coordinating in collaboration with the government of CAR, the World Bank, the UN Development Programme and the African Development Bank, seeks to involve traditional and non-traditional donors, including foundations and the private sector, to mobilise resources in support of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The PRSP describes macroeconomic, structural, and social policies and programs needed to promote growth and reduce poverty, as well as associated external financing needs. The PRSP is built on four pillars: security, peace and conflict prevention; good governance and the rule of law; economic revitalisation; and human development.


Human Rights-Related Developments
In his latest report under resolution 1612 submitted to the Council and its Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict on 13 April, the Secretary-General expressed his continuing grave concern over the use of children in armed conflict in CAR. While noting that he was encouraged by the government’s efforts to develop accountability for violence against children, the Secretary-General urged CAR to ensure that grave human rights violations against children, especially child recruitment, sexual violence and abductions, were rigorously addressed and prosecuted. He called on the government to issue clear orders, including at the local level, prohibiting the recruitment and use of children by local self-defence militias. 

Key Issues
A key issue is the security situation in northeastern CAR, which remains precarious following MINURCAT’s withdrawal.

A second issue is the threat to stability posed by the LRA and determining how this can best be addressed within the Council’s wider approach to tackling the LRA threat in the subregion.

A third issue is the need for security sector reform and good governance, including establishing rule of law capacity in terms of moving forward with the peacebuilding process.

One option for the Council is to simply receive the briefing.

A second option would be to make a determined effort in the CAR case to build on the thematic conclusion reached by the Council in its debate in February on Security and Development and the need to address root causes. Further integrating its efforts with the PBC Country Specific Configuration would be a related option.

Another option would be to lift the profile of the security situation in the country by issuing a statement.

Council Dynamics
There continues to be general consensus among Council members on the need to support the peacebuilding process in CAR. But Council members tend to take a wait-and-see perspective on how to address the situation. The Secretary-General’s report and Vogt’s briefing may influence the Council’s next steps.

France is the lead country on this issue in the Council.

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UN Documents

Selected Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2010/29 (20 December 2010) was on the situation in Chad and CAR.
  • S/PRST/2010/26 (14 December 2010) extended the mandate of BINUCA for another 12 months.
  • S/PRST/2009/35 (21 December 2009) welcomed the establishment of BINUCA, called for all political stakeholders to “ensure free, fair, transparent and credible preparation and conduct of the 2010 elections” and asked that the elections take place within the timeframe set by the constitution.

Secretary-General’s Report

  • S/2011/241 (13 April 2011) was the report on children and armed conflict in CAR.

PBC-Related Document

  • PBC/4/CAF/5 (11 February 2010) contained the recommendations and conclusions on the first biannual review of the Strategic Framework for Peacebuilding in CAR.

Council Meeting Record

  • S/PV.6438 (8 December 2010) was the briefing by then-Special Representative Sahle-Work Zewde and chair of the CAR configuration of the PBC, Belgian ambassador Jan Grauls.


  • S/2011/292 (10 May 2011) was from the Council President on the appointment of Margaret Vogt of Nigeria as special representative for BINUCA.
  • S/2011/291 (6 May 2011) was addressed to the Council President from the Secretary-General on his intention to appoint Margaret Vogt of Nigeria as the special representative for CAR.

 Useful Additional Source

An uncertain future? Children and armed conflict in the Central African Republic, Internal Displacement Monitoring Center and Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict, May 2011

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