January 2011 Monthly Forecast

Status Update

DRC: On 1 December 2010, the DRC sanctions committee added four individuals to the assets freeze and travel ban list under resolutions 1596(2005) and resolution 1952(SC/10099). Three of the four individuals, Gaston Iyamuremye, Félicien Nsanzubukire and Leodomir Mugaragu, are active in the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda, an armed group operating in the DRC. The fourth, Lieutenant Colonel Innocent Zimurinda, is a member of the Congolese army and was added to the list for various human rights abuses. The sanctions list now includes thirty individuals and entities.

Myanmar: On 6 December 2010 Council members were briefed by Vijay Nambiar, the Special Advisor to the Secretary-General, on his visit to Myanmar from 27 to 28 November. Nambiar also briefed the Secretary-General’s Group of Friends on Myanmar. Among the issues raised in both meetings was the appointment of a full time Secretary-General’s envoy for Myanmar. (Nambiar, who is also the Secretary-General’s Chief of Staff, took on this position in a temporary capacity following the departure of former UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari in January 2010.)

International Criminal Tribunals: On 6 December 2010, the presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda briefed the Council in an open meeting (S/PV.6434). (S/2010/588was the ICTY report and S/2010/574was the ICTR report.) On 14 December, the Council adopted resolutions 1954 and 1955, authorising certain judges to complete the cases on which they are working after the expiry of their terms of office and reiterating its call for the Secretariat and other relevant UN bodies to address the staffing situation. In addition, in the case of ICTY the Council authorised one judge to serve beyond the maximum cumulative period of service established by the Tribunal’s statute, and in the case of ICTR decided that the maximum number of ad litem judges may temporarily exceed what is currently allowed by this Tribunal’s statute.On 22 December the Council adopted a resolution establishing the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals with two branches which will start functioning on 1 July 2012 for ICTR and 1 July 2013 for ICTY.

Cyprus: On 8 December 2010, Lisa Buttenheim, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of UNFICYP briefed Council members in informal consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest UNFICYP report (S/2010/605). On 14 December, the Council extended UNFICYP’s mandate for another six months in resolution 1953. The resolution takes note of the recommendations of the Secretary-General in his latest good offices report (S/2010/603) and calls on the leaders of the two sides to “intensify the momentum in the negotiations” and develop “a practical plan for overcoming the major remaining points of disagreement” in time for their meeting with the Secretary-General in January. Turkey voted against the resolution (as it has done the three previous UNFICYP extensions since it joined the Council in January 2009), reiterating in an explanation of vote its objection to the text’s reference to the Government of Cyprus as the sole government of the island (S/PV. 6445). On 6 December the Council held a closed meeting with troop and police-contributing countries for UNFICYP (S/PV.6435).

Central African Republic: On 8 December 2010, the Council was briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative Sahle-Work Zewde (S/PV.6438). She said that CAR was on track to conduct successful elections in January 2011 and expressed the hope that the political atmosphere would remain calm and positive. The chair of the CAR configuration of the PBC, Belgium Ambassador Jan Grauls, told the Council that the integrated Strategic Framework developed by BINUCA had incorporated the priorities identified by the PBC, which would help further strengthen the cohesion between the PBC, BINUCA and the government. On 14 December, the Council extended the mandate of BINUCA for another 12 months (S/PRST/2010/26). The Council urged all stakeholders in CAR to work towards free, fair, transparent and credible elections, and to respect the results. The Council also expressed concern over the security situation, in particular the continued threat posed by the Lord’s Resistance Army.

Côte d’Ivoire: On 8 December 2010 the Council issued a press statement reiterating its support for the role of Special Representative of the Secretary-General Choi and UNOCI. It called on all Ivorian stakeholders to respect the outcome of the election “in view of ECOWAS’ recognition of Alassane Dramane Ouattara as president-elect of Côte d’Ivoire and representative of the freely expressed voice of the Ivorian people as proclaimed by the Independent Electoral Commission.” (SC/10105)On 16 December the Council issued a press statement expressing concern about violence, especially against civilians, in Côte d’Ivoire. It urged all Ivorian stakeholders to exercise restraint, remain calm, resist provocative actions, refrain from violence and collaborate to restore sustainable peace. The Council reiterated its support for the role of UNOCI. (SC/10124)On 20 December the Council brushed aside the call by former President Gbagbo for UNOCI to leave and renewed the mandate of UNOCI until 30 June 2011 (S/RES/1962). It authorised the Secretary-General to extend until 31 March 2011 the temporary deployment of up to 500 additional personnel, as well as the temporary redeployment of up to four weeks of troops from UNMIL to UNOCI. The Council subsequently issued a press statement expressing concern about continued reports of acts of violence in Côte d’Ivoire, including armed attacks against UNOCI and reports of multiple civilian fatalities (SC/10135). It condemned the acts of violence against UNOCI and warned all stakeholders that those responsible for attacks against civilians and peacekeepers will be brought to justice in accordance with international law and international humanitarian law.

Burundi: On 9 December, the Council was briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest report by outgoing Head of BINUB Charles Petrie (S/PV.6439). He told the Council that despite the elections and progress in the country’s transformation to stability and democracy, the overall situation in Burundi remained fragile with continued human rights concerns, such as reports of political intimidation and extra-judicial killings. Following consultations between the UN and Burundi, the Secretary-General recommended that the existing mission be restructured to better reflect current developments in Burundi. Chair of the Burundi configuration of the PBC Ambassador Paul Seger of Switzerland noted that with a newly legitimized government, there were good prospects for Burundi’s economic integration into the East-African Community. On 16 December, the Council adopted resolution 1959 to reconfigure BINUB into the new UN Office in Burundi (BNUB) with effect 1 Jan 2011. BNUB will have a scaled-down structure and mandate aimed to support democracy- and institution-building efforts and establish the foundations for sustainable development.

Iran: On 10 December the chair of the 1737 Committee on Iran sanctions, Ambassador Tsuneo Nishida of Japan, informed the Council in a briefing that during the previous ninety days the committee had received reports from two member states regarding two possible sanctions violations (S/PV.6442). While the reporting states were not named in Nishida’s briefing it was clear from the Council’s discussion that they were Nigeria and Italy. In the first case, reported by Nigeria, 13 shipping containers of illegal arms were seized that reportedly originated from Iran and a comprehensive report on the results of the Nigerian investigation would be forthcoming. The Committee encouraged Nigeria to invite the committee’s panel of experts to visit and inspect the seized containers. In the second case, reported by Italy, a container containing high explosive was inspected and seized on board the MS Finland which originated from Iran and was bound for Syria. Further investigations were being carried out by Italy and the committee sent a response similar to that sent in the first case. Nishida said that “it is a matter of grave concern that the apparent pattern of sanctions violations involving prohibited arms transfers from Iran, first highlighted publicly by the Committee a year ago, is continuing.”

Middle East: On 14 December Special Coordinator Robert Serry briefed the Council that the peace process had suffered a serious setback (S/PV.6448). Serry noted the Secretary-General’s regret that Israel failed to renew its settlement freeze. (On 8 December the US announced that it would no longer pursue with Israel proposals for a limited settlement moratorium.) He reiterated the UN position that settlement activity is contrary to international law and emphasised Road Map obligations and the Quartet position that unilateral actions will not be recognised by the international community (SG/2162). At press time, it seemed there would be a Quartet meeting in early 2011. On 15 December the Arab League announced that it would bring the issue of settlements before the Security Council. On Gaza, Israel began to allow limited exports consistent with security conditions.

Iraq: On 15 December 2010 at the initiative of the US as December president, a high-level Council meeting on Iraq was held (S/PV.6450). The meeting was chaired by US Vice President Joseph Biden. The Council adopted three resolutions and a presidential statement. Resolution 1956 extended the DFI and related immunities a final time until 30 June 2011 and affirmed that five percent of Iraqi proceeds from oil sales would continue to be deposited into the compensation fund after that date. Resolution 1957 terminated the WMD-related Chapter VII measures Iraq was subject to and urged Iraq to ratify the IAEA Additional Protocol as soon as possible. Resolution 1958 terminated the oil-for-Food programme and established an escrow account to provide indemnification to the UN with regard to the programme for a period of six years. The presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/27) welcomed Iraq’s progress in meeting its nonproliferation and disarmament obligations, recognised Iraq’s success in closing out remaining contracts in the Oil-for-Food programme and establishing successor arrangements for the DFI, and called on Iraq to quickly fulfil its remaining obligations to Kuwait. On 17 December the members of the Council received a briefing from Ambassador Gennady Tarasov, the Secretary-General’s High-Level Coordinator on Kuwait missing persons and property. In a press statement (SC/10130) Council members welcomed the commitment of the new Iraqi government to improving relations with Kuwait but stressed the need for Iraq to fulfil its commitments to Kuwait, specifically finding Kuwaiti or third-country nationals, property and archives. Members supported the Secretary-General’s recommendation to extend the financing of the activities of the High-Level Coordinator for a further period of six months.

Women, Peace and Security: On 16 and 17 December the Council held an open debate (S/PV.6453 and S/PV.6453 resumption 1) on sexual violence in conflict. The Secretary-General presented his report on the topic (S/2010/604) to the Council. Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Margot Wallström, Head of UN peacekeeping Alain Le Roy and the former force commander of the UN Mission in the DRC, Lieutenant Colonel Babacar Gaye, also briefed the Council. Twenty-four member states made statements. The Council adopted resolution 1960 (co-sponsored by 67 member states) that establishes a monitoring, analysis and reporting mechanism on conflict-related sexual violence in situations on the Council’s agenda. The resolution also calls upon parties to armed conflict to make specific, time-bound commitments to prohibit and punish sexual violence and asks the Secretary-General to monitor those commitments. The Council requested the Secretary-General to include in his annual reports on conflict-related sexual violence (next report due December 2011) an annex listing the parties credibly suspected of committing or being responsible for patterns of rape and other forms of sexual violence in situations of armed conflict on the Council’s agenda, using the same listing and delisting criteria as the current annexes prepared for children and armed conflict reports. The Council indicated its intention to use the annex list as a basis for decisions on sanctions (as appropriate).

Liberia: On 17 December 2010 the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1961, renewing for another year the arms embargo on Liberia and its travel ban on persons seen as threatening to peace and stability in the country. The Council also expressed its serious concern on the lack of progress in the implementation of the financial measures imposed on individuals by resolution 1532 (2004), and demanded that Liberia take all necessary measures to fulfill its obligations in this respect. In addition, the Council extended the mandate of the group of experts till 16 December, tasked with monitoring the effectiveness and compliance with the sanctions regime, and making recommendations for improving its implementation. The resolution also encourages the panel to cooperate with other relevant panels of experts, in particular those regarding Côte d’ivoire and the DRC, and the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.

UNOWA: On 17 December the head of the UN Office for West Africa briefed the Council on developments affecting peace and security in the subregion. At press time the Council was expected to renew the mandate of the Office for a further period of three years, from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2013.

DPRK: On 19 December the Council held emergency consultations and a closed meeting to discuss tensions on the Korean peninsula. The DPRK and the ROK attended the closed meeting and lengthy discussions on a draft press statement took place. No Council statement was agreed but a standard communiqué was issued.

Counterterrorism: On 20 December the Council in resolution 1963 extended the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Committee’s Executive Directorate (CTED) until 31 December 2013, with an interim review to be conducted by 30 June 2012 and an updated global implementation survey of resolution 1373 to be completed by 30 June 2011. The resolution encouraged CTED to focus increased attention on resolution 1624 (2005) and to produce a report on that resolution’s implementation by 31 December 2011 (resolution 1624 called on states to prohibit and prevent incitement to commit terrorist acts).

Chad/CAR: On 20 December the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/29), which called upon member states to ensure that necessary donor funds are made available to meet the budget of the DIS and urged Chad to assume full responsibility for the sustainment of the DIS as soon as possible. It also expressed serious concern about the challenges facing the security forces of CAR in Birao and stressed the importance of bilateral partners’ work to enhance their capacity. It encouraged further cooperation between the Governments of CAR, Chad and the Sudan in order to secure their common borders and called on regional and subregional organisations to consider, upon request of CAR, further actions to support security in CAR, such as reinforcing MICOPAX. The statement also requested the Secretary General to report by the conclusion of the MINURCAT liquidation phase on 30 April 2011.On 14 December the Council was briefed (S/PV.6449) by Special Representative Youssef Mahmoud on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2010/611) on the situation in Chad and CAR. The report included an assessment of lessons learned in the context of MINURCAT, whose mandate expires on 31 December. On 10 December troop and police-contributing countries met and were briefed by Mahmoud, who was joined via teleconference by MINURCAT Force Commander Major General Elhadji Mouhamedou Kandji and the head of MINURCAT’s Police Component, Police Commissioner Mamadou Mountaga Diallo (S/PV.6443).

Golan Heights: On 22 December the Council, following consideration of the latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2010/607), adopted resolution 1965 renewing the UNDOF mandate until 30 June 2011.

Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa: At press time the Council was yet to renew the mandate of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa. It is understood that a draft note to extend the mandate of the working group until the end of 2011 has been circulated amongst Council members. Adoption of the note by the president of the Council is expected by 23 December. The current mandate of the working group expires on 31 December 2010.

Afghanistan: At press time the Council was expected to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on Afghanistan on 22 December. No Council action was expected.

Full Forecast

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