October 2010 Monthly Forecast



Expected Council Action
On 13 October, the Council is expected to hold a debate covering two issues related to peacebuilding:

The Council might also consider a third report at the same meeting. A report, on women and peacebuilding is expected from the Secretary-General in early October. But at press time the Council had yet to decide whether to take up that issue in the context of the peacebuilding debate or whether to address it during the tenth anniversary debate on Women, Peace and Security planned for late October.

The Council is likely to adopt a resolution formalising the outcome of the peacebuilding review, in a parallel action with the General Assembly.

A presidential statement on the wider issue of post-conflict peacebuilding is also possible.

On 19 July the presidents of the Council and the General Assembly received the report of the three co-facilitators in charge of the 2010 review of the UN peacebuilding architecture. (The co-facilitators—Ambassadors Anne Anderson of Ireland, Claude Heller of Mexico and Baso Sangqu of South Africa—were appointed on 11 December 2009 to lead the review of the purpose, role and operation of the peacebuilding architecture as mandated in resolution 60/180 and resolution 1645). The report put forward a number of recommendations, including several regarding the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) and the Council:

(For further background, please see our August 2010 Monthly Forecast.)

On 16 July, the Secretary-General submitted a progress report on post-conflict peacebuilding. It gave a mixed picture of progress. It noted:

(For further background, please see our August 2010 Monthly Forecast, our 17 July 2009 Update Report on Post-Conflict Peacebuilding and our 9 May 2008 Update Report on Building Sustainable Peace: Post-Conflict Stabilisation.)

On women in peacebuilding, the expected report responds to a request by the Council on 5 October 2009 in resolution 1889. It asked the Secretary-General for ideas on addressing women’s participation and inclusion in peacebuilding and planning in the aftermath of conflict, taking into consideration the views of the PBC. The Peacebuilding Support Office subsequently undertook extensive consultations with the UN membership, peacebuilding practitioners within the UN system in New York and Geneva, and civil society when drafting this report. The final report, due in early October, is expected to contain a seven-point action plan for gender-responsive peacebuilding, including recommendations on minimum funding levels for gender programming in post-conflict recovery and possibly a recommendation that quota systems for women’s participation in post-conflict legislatures be encouraged.

Key Issues
One key issue for the Council is the implications in terms of working methods of the recommendations of the co-facilitators on the peacebuilding architecture review.

Another closely related issue will be whether to adopt the recommendations of the peacebuilding review with specific implementation expectations or instead agree to a more general formula of in principle approval.

A third issue is how to bring value out of the Secretary-General’s report on peacebuilding in the immediate aftermath of conflict, bearing in mind that many of the issues have been overtaken by the debate held in the Council on 23 September and the lessons in the statement (S/PRST/2010/18).

Options regarding the issue of the peacebuilding architecture review include:

An option for the issue of post-conflict peacebuilding will be for the Council to adopt a statement simply noting the key observations of the Secretary-General’s July report and highlighting the need to enhance effective and predictable responses. (At press time, discussions were in their nascent stages regarding a possible Council presidential statement.)

If the Council considers the Secretary-General’s report on women and peacebuilding during its peacebuilding debate, one option is to endorse the seven-point action plan for gender-responsive peacebuilding in the one thematic decision on women, peace and security.

Council Dynamics
It seems that Council members are comfortable with a general principle approval of the PBC review by way of parallel resolutions in the Council and the General Assembly. At press time, there was reportedly controversy about the exact operative wording. The P5 seem to prefer more ambiguous language and to defer any commitment on exactly what needs to be done respectively by the Council and General Assembly to implement the recommendations of the co-facilitators.

For the Council specifically, the issue is that the recommendations of the co-facilitators really relate to Council working methods (e.g. seeking the advice of the PBC when peacekeeping mandates are being established, reviewed or are approaching a drawdown). P5 members traditionally prefer that the General Assemble not use language on such matters. Russia has argued that this needs to be worked out in detail separately, not in the anticipated resolution. Others, including Uganda (which holds the presidency in October), seem keen to have the Council act more quickly and move the process forward in October.

Preliminary discussions on the question of the most appropriate forum in which to consider the Secretary-General’s report on women and peacebuilding has reportedly seen some Council members, including Austria, France, Mexico, the UK, Turkey and Japan, pushing for the issue to be taken up on 13 October. They argue for including the report in the debate on peacebuilding instead of during the tenth anniversary debate on women, and peace and security later in October to ensure that peacebuilding experts deal with the report, rather than the gender experts, in order that the recommendations of the report are dealt with in a more cross-cutting way. Other members, including Uganda, China and Russia, appear to question the idea, citing the need to consider the matter within the specific thematic context of the tenth anniversary debate on women, and peace and security.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1889 (5 October 2009) was on the issue of women, peace and security and requested the Secretary-General to submit a report on women and peacebuilding.
  • S/RES/1645A/RES/60/180 (20 December 2005) created the PBC and the Peacebuilding Fund.
  • S/RES/1327 (13 November 2000) and S/RES/1318 (7 September 2000) contained annexes discussing measures to strengthen peacekeeping operations.

Selected Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2010/18 (23 September 2010) was on the maintenance of international peace and security.
  • S/PRST/2010/7 (16 April 2010) stressed the need for a comprehensive peacebuilding strategy to prevent the recurrence of conflict.
  • S/PRST/2009/23 (22 July 2009) emphasised the vital role of the UN in post-conflict peacebuilding.
  • S/PRST/2008/16 (20 May 2008) invited the Secretary-General to provide advice on how to support sustainable peace in post-conflict situations.
  • S/PRST/2007/3 (21 February 2007) requested the PBC to include consideration of security sector reform programmes in integrated peacebuilding strategies.
  • S/PRST/2007/1 (8 January 2007) underlined the importance of close interaction between the Council and the PBC.
  • S/PRST/2006/42 (8 November 2006) welcomed the role the PBC can play in mainstreaming gender perspectives into the peace consolidation process.
  • S/PRST/2006/39 (20 September 2006) welcomed the intent of regional organisations to be closely associated with the work of the PBC and expressed the Council’s commitment to facilitate their participation in the PBC’s country-specific activities.
  • S/PRST/2006/38 (9 August 2006) was on peace consolidation in West Africa, underscoring the importance and role of the PBC in assisting countries emerging from conflict to achieve sustainable peace and security.
  • S/PRST/2001/31 (31 October 2001) emphasised the importance of gender perspectives in policies and programmes addressing armed conflict, especially peacekeeping operations.
  • S/PRST/2001/5 (20 February 2001) reiterated the value of including peacebuilding elements in mandates of peacekeeping operations.
  • S/PRST/2001/3 (31 January 2001) established a Working Group of the Whole on UN Peacekeeping Operations.
  • S/PRST/2000/10 (23 March 2000) was on disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration.

Selected Letters

  • S/2010/167 (1 April 2010) contained Japan’s concept paper for the open debate entitled “Post-Conflict Peace Building: Comprehensive Peacebuilding Strategy to Prevent the Recurrence of Conflict
  • S/2008/291 (2 May 2008) contained the British concept paper on securing peace in post-conflict situations.

Selected General Assembly Resolutions

  • A/RES/60/287 (21 September 2006) was on the Peacebuilding Fund.
  • A/RES/60/1 (16 September 2005) was the 2005 World Summit Outcome.

Selected Reports

  • A/64/868-S/2010/393 (21 July 2010) was the final report of the co-facilitators of the 2010 review of the UN peacebuilding architecture.
  • S/2010/386 (16 July 2010) was the progress report of the Secretary-General on peacebuilding in the immediate aftermath of conflict.
  • S/2009/304 (11 June 2009) was the Secretary-General’s report on peacebuilding in the immediate aftermath of conflict.
  • S/2009/189 (8 April 2009) was the Secretary-General’s report on enhancing mediation and support activities.
  • A/60/696 (February 2006) was a report on the Secretariat’s reform project “Peace Operations 2010.”
  • A/59/2005 (21 March 2005) was the report of the Secretary-General, In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights.
  • A/59/565 (2 December 2004) was the report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility.
  • S/2004/616 (23 August 2004) was the Secretary-General’s report on the rule of law in conflict and post-conflict societies.
  • E/2004/86 (25 June 2004) was an assessment of the Ad Hoc Advisory Groups of ECOSOC on African countries emerging from conflict.
  • S/2000/809 (21 August 2000) was the report of the Panel on UN Peace Operations (Brahimi Report).
  • S/2000/101 (11 February 2000) was the report of the Secretary-General on the role of UN peacekeeping in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration.
  • S/24111 (17 June 1992) was the report of the Secretary-General, An Agenda for Peace, Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peacekeeping.

Full forecast

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