Sudan

Expected Council Action
In March, the Council is expecting a briefing by the Sudan Sanctions Committee chairman and also the mid-term report from its Panel of Experts. Consultations are also expected and members seem likely to discuss recent developments and the upcoming April elections.

No formal Council action is expected but developments, including those resulting from the February signing of a framework agreement by the government and the Darfur rebel group, JEM, could prompt the Council to react.

The mandates of UNMIS and UNAMID expire on 30 April and 31 July, respectively. The mandate of the Sanctions Panel of Experts expires 15 October 2010.

Key Recent Developments
On 25 February, the President of the Council, Ambassador Géraud Araud of France made a statement to the media on behalf of the Council welcoming the Framework Agreement signed between the Government of Sudan and JEM and urging the parties to fully implement it. This statement followed one by the Secretary-General on 23 February, which welcomed the agreement and said it is “an important step towards an inclusive and comprehensive peace agreement.” He also urged all parties to fully engage in the peace process, while agreeing on a settlement of the Darfur crisis. But also on 25 February, there were reports that government forces had conducted aerial bombings in Darfur.

On 23 February, Sudan and JEM signed the peace Framework Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in Darfur. The agreement is a framework for further negotiations, due by 15 March. President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and the presidents of Chad, Eritrea and the Emir of Qatar participated in the signing ceremony. However, the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdel Wahid Al-Nur (SLM-AW) still refuses to negotiate with the government, insisting on the disarming of government-backed militia and on improved security on the ground in Darfur prior to participating in any talks.

On 22 February, the National Congress Party and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement agreed to increase parliamentary seats for southern Sudan in the national parliament, although the actual numbers have not been agreed to yet. The agreement might ease the two parties’ disagreement over the census results, conducted last year.

On 11 February, the Assistant Secretary-General for Rule of Law and Security Institutions, Dmitry Titov, presented the January Secretary-General’s report on Darfur to the Council, which noted the security situation in some areas of Darfur was impacted by military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and rebel movements.

On 16 February, seven Pakistani peacekeepers were attacked by an unknown armed group in an area outside Nyala, South Darfur. Both the Secretary-General and AU-UN Hybrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) condemned the attack and urged the Government of Sudan to investigate the incident.

On 16 February, the head of UNAMID called on the parties to show restraint following fighting between SLM-AW and Sudanese government forces, which led to the displacement of 1,500 people from their homes in Jebel Marra region in West Darfur.

Chadian President Idriss Déby visited Khartoum on 8 February, and met with President Omar al-Bashir to discuss strengthening their relations. Both governments agreed to direct talks and to support peace and regional stability in the future between the two countries.

The latest Secretary-General’s report on Darfur noted that the only rebel group to have reconciled with Khartoum, SLM/Minnawi, had attempted to register as a political party but was not able to do so because the military wing of the party has not been integrated into the national security institutions. In addition, the report expressed concern on the continued retention of emergency laws in Darfur, which restrict freedom of expression, association and assembly, and are crucial aspects of any free, fair and transparent electoral process.

The Secretary-General’s UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) report in January noted the challenges faced by political parties across Sudan, which have complained about lack of political rights in the electoral process and urged the National Unity government to take the necessary steps to ensure free, fair and credible elections. Titov reinforced these points during his February briefing.

In South Sudan, continued intertribal clashes in January and February threatened communities in the south, including Jonglei, Unity and Warrap states. The Secretary-General’s January report on UNMIS signaled concern over the continued violence and called on the government of southern Sudan to focus its efforts on protecting civilians.

Humanitarian organisations working in the area have also urged UNMIS and government authorities to protect civilians from violence. A report by the British humanitarian group Oxfam in January said that the poorly planned local disarmament process has not been successful in increasing security. The group urged the international community to develop a broader strategy to support security reforms.

On 26 January, the Council held closed consultations, reviewing UNMIS. Members of the Council raised their concern about lack of protection for civilians who are caught in intertribal conflict in the south and urged UNMIS to implement the protection portion of its mandate. Members also requested more information about weapons and ammunition flowing into South Sudan, where they have reportedly fueled intertribal conflict in the area. The US in particular raised concerns about the origin of the influx of arms into South Sudan.

On 2 February, the Secretary-General announced the appointment of Haile Menkerios of South Africa as his Special Representative for the Sudan. Menkerios will succeed Ashraf Jehangir Qazi of Pakistan.

The Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) in late 2009 developed guidelines for its missions on the support they should provide to Security Council sanctions panels. The guidelines address and standardise substantive, logistics/administrative and security support to the panels.

Human Rights-Related Developments

Key Issues

A key issue for the Council is whether the signing of the recent Framework Agreement between the Government of Sudan and JEM might lead to concrete improvements in Darfur. A related issue is whether coherence among JEM rebels will continue and this in turn will depend on whether the next round of negotiations can address their grievances in a practical way and improve the prospect for viable elections.

A second issue is what the Council can do at this stage to reinforce the political negotiation process.

A third issue for the Council is the risks surrounding the electoral process in the South. Implementing the remaining benchmarks of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) continues to be problem and violence is increasing. As the CPA enters its final year and Sudan prepares for elections, the parties have yet to address several issues, including natural resources, citizenship, security, national debts and assets.

A fourth issue, specifically on sanctions, will be for the Council to assess whether the DPKO guidelines on support for Council panels sufficiently address concerns that have been raised by panel members with sanctions committees.

Proliferation of armaments amongst militias and increased arms transfers is a related issue that is crucial to improving the security situation in South Sudan and the prospect for the elections. A question therefore is what role UNMIS can play in supporting the Government of Southern Sudan to enhance security measures to protect civilians and the need for contingency planning in this regard.

Options

Options for the Council could include:

• inviting the Panel of Experts to meet with Council experts in an informal interactive event so the panel can share information it has acquired over the years on challenges relevant to maintaining security in South Sudan;
• begin discussions on adjusting the current sanctions resolution in a way that allows its application to the parties to the CPA, with a focus on stemming the flow of arms and allowing for spoilers of the CPA to be added to the targeted sanctions list; and
• reverting to a regular monthly briefing but focusing on the country as a whole, not just Darfur.

Council Dynamics
On Darfur, there is common ground among Council members who appreciate that improved relations between the government and rebel groups will be key for UNAMID and humanitarian actors to carry on their operations. This could impact positively on any future voluntary return of the estimated two million internally displaced persons.

On the North/South issue, as the renewal of the UNMIS mandate approaches, Council members are becoming increasingly concerned by the prospect of violence in South Sudan being fueled by the arms transfers. Some support the expansion of the mandate of the Panel of Experts into the South, which could then provide more information on those who are impeding the peace process.

The UK is the lead country on Darfur in the Council.

Other Relevant Facts

Full forecast