Sudan
Expected Council Action
The Secretary-General’s report on the hybrid UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) is due on 30 September. Its mandate expires 31 July 2009, while the mandate for the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) expires 30 April 2009. It is unclear whether there will be any substantive discussion of Darfur issues. Little enthusiasm can be detected and it is even unclear whether any discussion of the ICC proceedings against Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir can be expected in October. The only likely issue to arise is the mandate of the current Panel of Experts for the Darfur sanctions regime. This expires on 15 October and is expected to be extended for a further year. At the time of writing, the Panel’s final report, expected at the Council by 21 September, was pending.
An UNMIS report is expected in the second half of October. This may include results of an UNMIS military capability study which is expected to contain recommendations regarding the future composition and location of UNMIS assets in Sudan.
Key Recent Developments
The security and human rights situation in Darfur continues to deteriorate. Recent clashes between government forces and rebels in northern Darfur have displaced thousands of civilians and restricted the access of UNAMID and aid convoys. UNAMID condemned the use of excessive force by Sudanese government forces on 25 August, when their enforcement of a search warrant for drugs and weapons left 33 dead in Kalma camp, which houses 80,000 internally displaced persons in southern Darfur. By 10 September, UNAMID had round-the-clock patrols inside Kalma camp and was looking to establish a permanent UN police presence in other critical camps. Eighteen former rebels from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) withdrew from executive and legislative bodies in Darfur in protest over the government’s actions at Kalma.
Delivery of humanitarian assistance continues to be significantly hindered by the security situation. In early September, the World Food Programme warned it would have to suspend food distribution unless security improved. Since May, attacks on WFP food convoys have reduced rations by almost half to more than 3 million people in Darfur.
The AU sponsored Dakar Agreement contact group met on 12 September to discuss deployment of a joint monitoring force along the border between Sudan and Chad. Details of the force are yet to be agreed upon.
Khartoum’s cooperation with the UNAMID deployment improved in September. The government streamlined customs for UNAMID cargo, and provided security for some UNAMID convoys. The need to provide training and equipment to African contingents continues to delay the UNAMID deployment and it seems that the deployment targets will now not be met. The helicopter assets problem remains. UNAMID’s ability to execute its mandate will continue to be limited.
The Arab League announced a six-member committee (Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Syria, Libya and Egypt headed by Qatar) to mediate between the Sudanese government and Darfur rebels. But rebel groups opposed the initiative, rejecting the Arab League’s impartiality.
In a further initiative to reinvigorate peace talks, the recently appointed Joint UN-AU Chief Mediator for Darfur, Djibril Yipènè Bassolé, assumed his duties in El Fasher on 28 August.
A ministerial-level meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) was held on 22 September on the margins of the UN General Assembly. In the meeting’s communiqué, the PSC reiterated its request for the deferral of ICC proceedings against Sudanese President Bashir. It welcomed the establishment of an African High-Level Panel to make recommendations to the PSC on how best to address accountability, impunity and reconciliation issues in Darfur. The PSC also welcomed Sudan’s agreement to involve AU and Arab League lawyers in judicial proceedings of human rights violations.
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Related Developments at the Human Rights Council |
An issue in the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement—Abyei’s contested boundaries—has been referred to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The Court is to decide whether the Abyei Boundaries Commission “exceeded its mandate” in its decision defining the boundaries and, if so, to determine what they should be.
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Related Developments in the Sudan Sanctions Committee |
One option for the Council is to simply adopt a technical resolution extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts for a further 12 months. Additional measures to strengthen the sanctions regime are unlikely.
Another option is to return to the regional dimension of the Darfur problem. In this context, after discussions with key stakeholders, the Council could adopt adjustments to the mandates of UNAMID and MINURCAT to establish UN mentoring teams to train and assist the Sudan/Chad joint border monitoring force (once established) in policing the arms embargo.
On mediation in Darfur, the Council could follow up its thematic statement on mediation of 23 September and put its weight firmly behind the recent deployment of the full-time in-country chief mediator including perhaps establishing a working group to support his activities in conjunction with the AU PSC.
Noting the AU PSC’s 21 July communiqué which indicated its intention to regularly inform the Security Council on progress in Darfur peace agreement negotiations, work of the High-Level Panel and investigations into human rights violations the Council could make a formal request for the briefing on a regular basis. These briefings could be held in conjunction with the chief mediator.
On north-south issues the Council could begin discussions on possible adjustments to the UNMIS mandate (which expires in April) to reflect its role in the elections and referendum. The Council could also consider a stronger UNMIS role in security sector reform. It could request a briefing from the Secretariat on both issues.
Key Issues
On Darfur, a key issue is whether recent initiatives to seek a political solution, namely the appointment of a Joint Chief Mediator and the Qatar-led mediation group, can be turned into a successful new framework. A related issue is improving security and, in that context, determining how best to advance UNAMID’s deployment.
Members are likely to be preoccupied with determining whether judicial and political processes can advance simultaneously and independently. Another concern is whether a strategy balancing peace with justice and accountability can be identified and agreed upon.
On the north-south situation, a key issue at the halfway point of UNMIS’s current mandate is whether adjustments are needed to better support the implementation of the CPA, particularly the 2009 elections and 2010 referendum on possible independence for Southern Sudan.
An issue for the Secretariat is the renewal in mid-October of the appointment of the UNAMID deputy force commander, Karenzi Karake, who had been indicted by a Spanish judge relating to events in his home country, Rwanda. Rwanda, which contributes just under half of the currently deployed military troops in Darfur, has threatened to withdraw its UNAMID contingent if his appointment is not renewed.
Council Dynamics
The Council’s lack of unity on Sudan and the increasing gravity of the situation have impeded a coherent Council strategy. China, Russia and AU members of the Council have been reluctant to implement recommendations by the Panel of Experts to strengthen the sanctions regime. Libya, Russia and South Africa, have suggested imposing sanctions also against rebels, however no formal proposal has materialised. Given the politicised dynamic, and absence of new ideas, the role of the joint chief mediator is coming to the fore as a possible way forward.
The Council remains divided on ICC issues. Russia, China, Libya, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Indonesia and Viet Nam are understood to support the idea of suspension of proceedings against Bashir. Others, including Italy, Croatia, Belgium, Panama and Costa Rica, remain concerned with justice and accountability and oppose Council interference in the ICC proceedings.
Although they have quite different strategies and approaches it seems that the UK, US and France are willing to contemplate the conditions that would have to be accepted by Khartoum if the case against Bashir were to be suspended. But there may be widely differing views on how strong those conditions should be, including cooperating with the ICC on the two existing ICC warrants, removing all obstacles to normal UNAMID deployment, making real steps towards a Darfur peace process, and stopping Sudan’s proxy war with Chad. At the time of writing it would appear none of the three members have seen any response from Khartoum that would be encouraging.
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Selected Security Council Resolutions |
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Selected Secretary-General’s Reports |
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Selected Council Meeting Record |
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Other |
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UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur |
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Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo) |
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Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator |
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Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé (Burkina Faso) |
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UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost |
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UNAMID: Duration |
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31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2009 |
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UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General |
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Ashraf Qazi (Pakistan) |
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UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost |
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UNMIS: Duration |
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24 March 2005 to present; mandate expires 30 April 2009 |
