Lebanon

Expected Council Action
The mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. The Council is expected to extend it for another year.

Also expected is a report from the Lebanese Independent Border Assessment Team (LIBAT) on the situation along the border between Lebanon and Syria and the status of international assistance to Lebanese authorities for enhanced border control. The Council is likely to discuss the report’s recommendations in consultations.

Key Recent Developments
Several positive developments occurred in recent weeks. On 12 and 13 July, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, invited to Paris by President Nicolas Sarkozy, attended the launching of a union between the EU and the Mediterranean basin. Following meetings with Sarkozy, Assad and Suleiman agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations. This responds positively to implementation of Council resolutions 1680 and 1701.

On 11 July, the formation of the government of national unity was announced after six weeks of negotiations on the distribution of portfolios. Under the terms of the Doha agreement, the Hezbollah-led opposition was provided with enough seats to block any cabinet decision. The cabinet has one Hezbollah minister in addition to ten ministers from its Shi’ite, Druze and Christian allies.

On the other hand, the resumption of sectarian fighting in the northern city of Tripoli between Sunni Muslim supporters of the government majority and Alawite gunmen close to the opposition is a setback. The Lebanese Army was deployed to stem violence; however, fresh clashes erupted on 25 July.

On 9 July, the Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe, briefed the Council in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on resolution 1701. He said the ultimate goal of this resolution, a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution, had yet to be achieved. Ongoing sectarian violence in Lebanon was a reminder that the situation remained fragile and that national dialogue needed to resume quickly. He also said that the fighting in Beirut in May had demonstrated the presence of weapons inconsistent with resolution 1701 and that compliance by Iran and Syria with the arms embargo was necessary. The Director of the Asia and Middle East Division of the Department for Peacekeeping Operations also briefed the Council on UNIFIL.

The latest 1701 report was published on 27 June. The Secretary-General noted:

• the Doha agreement provided an opportunity to make further progress on the 1701 process;
• non-state actors still posed a risk to the foundation of the Lebanese state;
• recent signals from Syria regarding the establishment of diplomatic ties with Lebanon, and renewed declarations from the international community on the importance of finding a solution to the Sheb’a Farms were positive indicators;
• progress on the issue of Ghajar was ongoing (the northern part of this village in south Lebanon remains occupied by Israel contrary to resolution 1701, and there have been talks among the Lebanese Armed Forces, the Israeli Defense Forces and UNIFIL on Israel’s withdrawal);
• the presence of armed elements in UNIFIL’s area of operations and incidents restricting UNIFIL’s movement remained a source of serious concern;
• Israeli violations of Lebanon’s airspace continued; and
• full implementation of the arms embargo was necessary and the determination of the Lebanese government to enhance its border-management capacity should be supported.

Overall, the report seemed less alarming in tone than previous ones. For instance, there was no reference to potential arms smuggling across the Syrian-Lebanese border.

On 29 June, the Israeli government signed a deal following nearly two years of complex and secret mediation led by a UN-appointed German negotiator for a prisoners’ exchange involving the release of two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006 by Hezbollah. This was implemented by Israel and Hezbollah on 16 July. Hezbollah handed over the bodies of the two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006, as well as the body parts of other Israeli soldiers killed in south Lebanon in the summer of 2006. Israel handed over five Lebanese prisoners and the remains of some two hundred Lebanese and Palestinian fighters. The Secretary-General welcomed the exchange in a statement, expressing his satisfaction that the humanitarian aspects of resolution 1701 were thus fulfilled.

During an open Council debate on the Middle East situation on 22 July, several members welcomed the recent positive developments in Lebanon highlighting the formation of Lebanon’s national unity government, the exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hezbollah and the moves to establish diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon. Libya highlighted Israel’s violations of Lebanese air space, Israel’s occupation of Sheb’a Farms and Israel’s failure to respond to appeals for maps showing mines and cluster munitions in southern Lebanon. The US said outside parties, especially Syria and Iran, should stop arming illegal militias in Lebanon.

Options
On format, the Council has the following options:

• proceeding with a simple resolution extending the UNIFIL mandate and adopting a parallel presidential statement focusing on political aspects of the implementation of resolution 1701 (this is the format used for the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights);
• combining into the resolution language on UNIFIL other aspects relating to resolution 1701 (the Council took this approach in resolution 1773, which renewed UNIFIL’s mandate in 2007); and
• addressing political issues at a later stage.

On substance, the Council could adopt a low key approach:

• welcoming recent developments, in particular the formation of the Lebanese government, the exchange of prisoners and the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon;
• reaffirming the need for all parties to implement both resolution 1701 and the Doha agreement in full, including the reinforcement of state authority over Lebanon’s territory; and
• reaffirming its strong support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, and political independence of Lebanon under the exclusive authority of its government and repeating past language on Israeli overflights and unexploded ordnance in south Lebanon.

If the Council wanted to be more proactive, it could:

• urge intensified efforts to find a solution leading to Israeli withdrawal from Ghajar;
• request the Secretary-General reenergise efforts to resolve the Sheb’a Farms issue (a first step might be having the parties confirm that they agree with the definition of the area provided by the UN cartographer);
• encourage resumption of a Lebanese dialogue with the view to reaching agreement on disarming militias, and request the Secretary-General to provide assistance to this process; and
• address in detail the border security issues, including the recommendations of the LIBAT report and remind the parties of the arms embargo and signal possible measures to strengthen the embargo (such as the establishment of a sanctions committee) if the situation does not improve.

Key Issues
A key issue is how much to push for further 1701 implementation at this stage. While some believe that the risk of instability requires stronger Council action, others think that only the resumption of inter-Lebanese dialogue would eventually contribute to long-term stability, hence the Council should only encourage progress in that direction.

Another issue will be driven by the conclusions of the LIBAT report. At time of writing, it was unclear whether its conclusions would be technical or whether it would venture into the area of arms smuggling 

Council Dynamics
Recently, traditional fault lines seemed to have re-emerged. Some (Libya, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa) appear to emphasise Israeli airspace violations. Others (the US in particular) emphasise disarmament and the need to strengthen the arms embargo. Positions on the Sheb’a Farms issue also differ. The US, for instance, maintains that full delimitation of the border between Lebanon and Syria is the best solution. Russia suggests that if Israel withdrew from the Farms that would be an essential step forward. France, the US and the UK support a solution to the situation in Ghajar believing this would contribute to building confidence.

All members seem to agree that the Doha agreement has created a positive context for further progress on 1701 and that the Council needs to lend its support to its full implementation.

There seems to be consensus that the UNIFIL mandate should be extended for a further twelve months. It remains to be seen whether the US will propose reinforcing the UNIFIL disarmament mandate. Many Council members (including France, which has the lead on Lebanon) apparently think that the Council should not restrict itself to a simple renewal but should also include in the resolution substantive language giving support for full implementation of 1701.

At time of writing, there seemed to be no proposals for more detailed measures to reinforce the arms embargo. Support for the “softer” approach of providing assistance to Lebanese authorities to enhance border control seems to be widely supported. Support for LIBAT recommendations is likely. However, it remains to be seen, depending on the conclusions of the report, whether the US will push for specific measures to strengthen the embargo.

UN Documents

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